yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: Not yet... that's an hour away. Its running now http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat_new/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: EPS? Probably the last run we pay any attention to but I'm still interested. Converging on a solution. 99.99999% sure we get more then 1" 90% sure more then 3" in DCA with that 99.999% a bit south of Baltimore 50% right at DCA (ew) to 70% in my NW corner of Arlington for 6", 80% in Baltimore. 10% for 12" at DCA, 30% B'More SOURCE: % maps on WXBell http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/yeps_probs.php Something else interesting is the lack of precip, only a 50% shot at 1" of precip in DCA... Seems low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Euro is always stingy on precip. Maybe more accurate at the final tally, but it cuts down on model porn depictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 It's weird so many of you say you have mixed in the big ones. I've only lived in Elkridge since 2009, but 2009, both 2010 storms and the 2016 storms had no mixing at all. The 2011 storm began as rain and turned to sleet then snow, and the 2014 storm was snow and then drizzle and eventually back to a little snow. That said, I was in Woodlawn for 1996 and there was some brief mix there and in College Park for 2003 and it sleeted at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 FWIW again, SREF's bounced back some. Up to 7 inch mean now, so that my foreshadow a better run upcoming for the NAM. Decent number of members between 10 and 18 with one approaching 30. Obviously not happening but nice seeing a bounce back. Hope it's a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, osfan24 said: FWIW again, SREF's bounced back some. Up to 7 inch mean now, so that my foreshadow a better run upcoming for the NAM. Decent number of members between 10 and 18 with one approaching 30. Obviously not happening but nice seeing a bounce back. Hope it's a trend. It is a good predictor of the NAM sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: FWIW again, SREF's bounced back some. Up to 7 inch mean now, so that my foreshadow a better run upcoming for the NAM. Decent number of members between 10 and 18 with one approaching 30. Obviously not happening but nice seeing a bounce back. Hope it's a trend. A hair more qpf but colder. Probably meaningless but let's hope a trend to a colder solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 JMA is east with SLP compared to euro/ukie. Between 1-1.25" precip everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I know I'm a little late but talking about elevation.. where I am in south Owings Mills/garrison/pikesville area my elevation is 470 feet. My dads house which is 10 minutes away closer to Worthington/Owings Mills is 700 feet. He always gets an inch or two more snow up there and it's always about 2-3 degrees colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 JMA is east with SLP compared to euro/ukie. Between 1-1.25" precip everywhere. Where are you getting the jma? I don't see it on meteocentre yetSent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: JMA is east with SLP compared to euro/ukie. Between 1-1.25" precip everywhere. 6z JMA is around 37mm at DCA... dont see 12z out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Navy96 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 31 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Most of parkton area is over 600 ft. A lot of areas close to parkton are near 800. Yeah, I'm in the northern part of Parkton, just east of Maryland Line, with an average elevation in my lot of around 820'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 NAM northern stream digging slightly more this run so far. Slightly colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 anywhere from rockville to olney to columbia to north bmore is usually where you're ok during dc to bmore fringe storms. bethesda to silver spring to south bmore is usually a little more dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, Kleimax said: I know I'm a little late but talking about elevation.. where I am in south Owings Mills/garrison/pikesville area my elevation is 470 feet. My dads house which is 10 minutes away closer to Worthington/Owings Mills is 700 feet. He always gets an inch or two more snow up there and it's always about 2-3 degrees colder I grew up in south owings mills/garrison. There are a lot of neat micro climates all around that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I grew up in south owings mills/garrison. There are a lot of neat micro climates all around that area.Yes. I live on Chestnut Ridge at 730 feet. We have a microclimate here on the Ridge. It can literally be white and at Falls and Beltway wet. Makes the game fun.Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I dont see the NS low anymore at hr 26 of 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Let's keep the thread about model runs, not elevations imby stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 12z JMA is up on TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, yoda said: I dont see the NS low anymore at hr 26 of 18z NAM Same here..it's like almost completely gone now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: 12z JMA is up on TT GFS-esque. I guess we don't have access to thermals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Nam about to blow up again at 26. Darn close between the two streams imo on h5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, AdamHLG said: Yes. I live on Chestnut Ridge at 730 feet. We have a microclimate here on the Ridge. It can literally be white and at Falls and Beltway wet. Makes the game fun. Sent from my VS995 using Tapatalk How about when you go north from where you live and go down a couple hundred ft. in elevation right before you get to tufton. Temps really bottom out with snow cover no wind and clear conditions. Unbelievable radiationall cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, yoda said: I dont see the NS low anymore at hr 26 of 18z NAM Miller A? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Same here..it's like almost completely gone now. If you're using TT, check the NE quad view. It's still there - very weak - over TN VA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: GFS-esque. I guess we don't have access to thermals? There's 24 hour increments on TT. 850s on there stay safely east of DC. Based on the low location, I'd think we would be all snow or very little sleet mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: I dont see the NS low anymore at hr 26 of 18z NAM It's there. Just way further south and weaker. This run should be really good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: GFS-esque. I guess we don't have access to thermals? It's cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: It's cold That would be ideal for everybody I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 DP is mid-20s on the NAM at 9pm Monday. Very light precip just getting in at that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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