Chase Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... After a winter of warm temperatures a real winter storm is almost upon us. Again the day on Monday will be fine...allowing people to prep. Highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Two short waves coming into phase Monday night. Low pressure is expected to develop along the Carolina coast...moving to a position east of ORF around daybreak...east of ACY by midday Tuesday and then deepening rapidly near Cape Cod that evening. We are upgrading to a winter storm warning where we feel most confident - the "prime snow area" which we've been discussing for the past two days - west of I-95 in the northern interior of our forecast area where we think the combination of abundant moisture, cold temperatures, and lift will be best. We are still unsure of exactly what is going to happen east of I-95 where the possibility of a warm low level intrusion may occur. Any above freezing air in the column will lead to sleet and knock totals down. This area remains in a watch. And south and west remain in a watch as well. It may turn out that the central Shenandoah Valley ends up being upgraded to a warning but somewhat of a "marginal" one for around 5". West of the Blue Ridge may be cut off from the best moisture. On our far western slopes we may end seeing days of snow showers on upslope flow. Clouds should begin to break up Tuesday afternoon. Mid March sun will help road crews. Icy spots will be possible Tuesday night thought as temperatures drop well below freezing. AFD from Woody! at 2:56pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 11 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: I have 400ft here in Columbia but im still sweating I'm about a mile from Columbia, so I'll sweat it with you. Wish I knew my exact elevation. Guessing in the mid 300's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Scraff said: I'm about a mile from Columbia, so I'll sweat it with you. Wish I knew my exact elevation. Guessing in the mid 300's. There is a website for that! http://www.whatismyelevation.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Chase said: .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... After a winter of warm temperatures a real winter storm is almost upon us. Again the day on Monday will be fine...allowing people to prep. Highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Two short waves coming into phase Monday night. Low pressure is expected to develop along the Carolina coast...moving to a position east of ORF around daybreak...east of ACY by midday Tuesday and then deepening rapidly near Cape Cod that evening. We are upgrading to a winter storm warning where we feel most confident - the "prime snow area" which we've been discussing for the past two days - west of I-95 in the northern interior of our forecast area where we think the combination of abundant moisture, cold temperatures, and lift will be best. We are still unsure of exactly what is going to happen east of I-95 where the possibility of a warm low level intrusion may occur. Any above freezing air in the column will lead to sleet and knock totals down. This area remains in a watch. And south and west remain in a watch as well. It may turn out that the central Shenandoah Valley ends up being upgraded to a warning but somewhat of a "marginal" one for around 5". West of the Blue Ridge may be cut off from the best moisture. On our far western slopes we may end seeing days of snow showers on upslope flow. Clouds should begin to break up Tuesday afternoon. Mid March sun will help road crews. Icy spots will be possible Tuesday night thought as temperatures drop well below freezing. AFD from Woody! at 2:56pm somehow they don't mention the actual 95 corridor in their discussion... just east and west. I would love to hear their thoughts on mixing in the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 12z RGEM ensemble for DC. According to meteocentre, there's a stretch up I95 from Baltimore to New Hampshire in which more than 60% of members show at least 30 mm of qpf falling as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I try not to be too critical of lwx but in the warning they should have included the potential for a foot or more in the favored locations. They also should have acknowledged the northern tier temps could be colder than the lower 30's. I would also think we would see some higher wind gusts than just 20 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 All of the talk that if it's not snow then it's rain or rain/snow....why not sleet or sleet/snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: There is a website for that! http://www.whatismyelevation.com/ Hahaha. Thanks. I literally googled that right after I said that. So 293 feet. Meh. I hope it'll do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: There is a website for that! http://www.whatismyelevation.com/ Also a bunch of free elevation apps for iPhone, etc. Pretty cool to track as you're driving or jeb-walking around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: There is a website for that! http://www.whatismyelevation.com/ I only have 165 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 15 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: How about being right on the line? Baltimore city--the exact benchmark, lol Long-time lurker, first time poster. Conversely, I often am fringed on the west side of the precip shield here in Augusta County, VA. I have elevation (1540'), but deal mainly with sharp cutoffs east to west and north to south. When I can get enough qpf, we usually do well around here. This year I have 3", well below climo of 25". Overall, the models have shifted the precip shield west, but also north. I could get anywhere from 4" to 12+" based upon the latest guidance. Sure is fun to track. Thanks to all of you for teaching me the last 3 years while I have lurked in the shadows on this board! Good luck to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, HighStakes said: I try not to be too critical of lwx but in the warning they should have included the potential for a foot or more in the favored locations. They also should have acknowledged the northern tier temps could be colder than the lower 30's. I would also think we would see some higher wind gusts than just 20 mph Yeah, they seem a bit more bearish than what I'd expect. Maybe they'll raise those totals later on. I would've at least gone with 6-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, snjókoma said: somehow they don't mention the actual 95 corridor in their discussion... just east and west. I would love to hear their thoughts on mixing in the cities. I dont think anyone really knows yet. The short term models will be in range overnight tonight. We will know a lot more then I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Too much conflicting guidance. Easy to see conservative forecasts. The next 12-15 hours will likely clear this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, clskinsfan said: I dont think anyone really knows yet. The short term models will be in range overnight tonight. We will know a lot more then I think. Our fun 18z NAM suite should be starting shortly... hoping that gives us some clarity... well, at least a smidge of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: I only have 165 feet. I'm very lucky to have my 359. Living on top of a hill has its advantages. Wanted to share some maps I hadn't seen shared yet, this is the WPC % Accumulation maps, given a 25% case, 50% case (the predicted amount), 75& case, and 90% case. I know these are D.C.-centric, but they give the general idea of that the WPC is thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Fozz said: Yeah, they seem a bit more bearish than what I'd expect. Maybe they'll raise those totals later on. I would've at least gone with 6-12". It's LWX and climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33andrain Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: Hahaha. Thanks. I literally googled that right after I said that. So 293 feet. Meh. I hope it'll do. 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: There is a website for that! http://www.whatismyelevation.com/ I had no idea that Towson, MD is at a higher elevation than Parkton, MD at 468'. Nice link, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: Our fun 18z NAM suite should be starting shortly... hoping that gives us some clarity... well, at least a smidge of it I'd like to see the NAMs actually agree on a solution together. We get 4 slightly different outcomes which in setups like this, even slight differences matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, 33andrain said: I had no idea that Towson, MD is at a higher elevation than Parkton, MD at 468'. Nice link, thanks Most of parkton area is over 600 ft. A lot of areas close to parkton are near 800. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I got 20ft in elevation. y'all can suck it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 EPS? Probably the last run we pay any attention to but I'm still interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, 33andrain said: I had no idea that Towson, MD is at a higher elevation than Parkton, MD at 468'. Nice link, thanks 550' in Gaithersburg. I literally avoided renting apts in the 350' range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, 33andrain said: I had no idea that Towson, MD is at a higher elevation than Parkton, MD at 468'. Nice link, thanks Towson's highest points are higher than Parkton's lowest points, but much of Parkton is 600'+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 11 minutes ago, yoda said: Our fun 18z NAM suite should be starting shortly... hoping that gives us some clarity... well, at least a smidge of it Not yet... that's an hour away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 14 minutes ago, Fozz said: Yeah, they seem a bit more bearish than what I'd expect. Maybe they'll raise those totals later on. I would've at least gone with 6-12". Per their AFD, they want to wait for another run of the models before expanding warnings and upping/holding amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Warrior Bigfoot said: I got 20ft in elevation. y'all can suck it Yeah. But you get the best crabs in the world every fall. You gotta give up something to get something my man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I'm at nearly 500' and I mix in the big storms but it's usually sleet and not rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, 33andrain said: I had no idea that Towson, MD is at a higher elevation than Parkton, MD at 468'. Nice link, thanks Huh? I'm at 720'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: EPS? Probably the last run we pay any attention to but I'm still interested. Slightly less than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.