March 13/14th PSU Storm

[Ellinwood]

Here be my map.

[WinterWxLuvr]

5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Not really imortant at all. Neither is the gefs. All they are going to show is a smoothed mean of the op run. Global ops are the big heavyweights for sure right now. 

Gfs has been the most consistent but it could easily shift a little west at 18z. All globals show fairly sig precip though the entire region. The goal posts are really narrow. After 0z tonight its mostly just chips fall mode. 

What are your thoughts as to when mesoscale models take over?

[ravensrule]

Just now, Ellinwood said:

Here be my map.

Looks excellent like always. The 8-12" in Philly may be a bit low.

[Ltrain]

2 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

Here be my map.

Nice.  I'll take 4-8 and be fine with that. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, Ellinwood said:

Here be my map.

You're certainly one of the best with this stuff.  And you don't need a preliminary, first thought, first guess map as a precursor to your eventual 12 map assortment.

[Scraff]

Am I wrong to have a queasy feeling after the Euro? Maybe its because I know I'm about 1 mile west of I95. 

[Ellinwood]

3 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Looks excellent like always. The 8-12" in Philly may be a bit low.

I'm banking on marginal surface temps to keep Philly's totals down a bit, but we'll see what everything is showing in 24 hours.

[osfan24]

I'm not sure when we are going to have this one nailed down. We've seen models with everything from almost nothing along 95 to 30 inches. Now, some are obviously much more reliable than others, but we are talking small changes here and there make huge differences in both temps and qpf. 12z runs really caused confusion with GFS staying the course and other models coming west. Euro location actually seems pretty good to me compared with Ukie and CMC but not really the case with snowfall maps.

[Maestrobjwa]

25 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

That sv map is too low. It's surface based and there would be plenty of snow falling along 95 and dc. The wxbell map is too high verbatim. Would not be 10:1 east of the fall line and mixing for sure at some point.  

 

It's an improved run from 0z with progression and qpf. That's unquestionable. But the devil is in the details.  I take it as a win.  Philly and western burbs get freekin nuked though. 

Can ya really take it as a win, though? This solution would be bordering on disaster for Baltimore and DC! I certainly feel less comfortable...because now the chances seems to be 50/50 in either direction! Just forecast 4-15 inches and be done with it, lol

[caviman2201]

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Am I wrong to have a queasy feeling after the Euro? Maybe its because I know I'm about 1 mile west of I95. 

Yes.  Try being 8 miles east of it.  I'd love to have Elkridge's elevation in this one.  My 50 ft isn't going to cut it. lol

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, caviman2201 said:

Yes.  Try being 8 miles east of it.  I'd love to have Elkridge's elevation in this one.  My 50 ft isn't going to cut it. lol

How about being right on the line? Baltimore city--the exact benchmark, lol

[vinylfreak89]

I'm not sure when we are going to have this one nailed down. We've seen models with everything from almost nothing along 95 to 30 inches. Now, some are obviously much more reliable than others, but we are talking small changes here and there make huge differences in both temps and qpf. 12z runs really caused confusion with GFS staying the course and other models coming west. Euro location actually seems pretty good to me compared with Ukie and CMC but not really the case with snowfall maps.

Euro just develops things a bit late so the shortwave really doesn't get going until north of us, even though the sfc low is strong. That's why less QPF... always a huge risk with Miller Bs

Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk

[PDIII]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Map?

Right there ^^.... At least the euro was wet this run.

[yoda]

Going to be an interesting LWX afternoon disco

[AmericanWxFreak]

4 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Yes.  Try being 8 miles east of it.  I'd love to have Elkridge's elevation in this one.  My 50 ft isn't going to cut it. lol

I have 400ft here in Columbia but im still sweating

[DC2Winston]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

How about being right on the line? Baltimore city--the exact benchmark, lol

...or right in borderline NW DC.  Quarter mile from Rock Creek, maybe 120' ASL.

Solidarity my friend.

[Quasievil]

For those East of 95 from DC to Baltimore, the Euro looks more inline with the Winter of 2016/2017. Hard to trust it yet, due to its wobbling, but it sure is awfully close.

[osfan24]

4 minutes ago, vinylfreak89 said:

Euro just develops things a bit late so the shortwave really doesn't get going until north of us, even though the sfc low is strong. That's why less QPF... always a huge risk with Miller Bs

Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk
 

Given the trend, if you get it going slightly sooner, we should be right in game. Of course, temps are still a concern (though they always have been with this one).

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, CARDC79 said:

...or right in borderline NW DC.  Quarter mile from Rock Creek, maybe 120' ASL.

Solidarity my friend.

Me thinks we'll be sweating until tomorrow afternoon. Gonna be a long 24 hours, lol

[clskinsfan]

Are we allowed to post Euro images we find on Twitter?

[Eskimo Joe]

WSW:  https://inws.ncep.noaa.gov/a/a.php?i=10446071

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I like the euro run.  Gimme a bomb off va beach, coming in at night, decent air mass..ill take my chances with that every time and be happy even if I changeover.  Also, maybe it adjusts a little SE, or maybe it has the surface a degree or 2 too warm.  Either of those happen and we get a foot in D.C. 

[yoda]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
258 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017



MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ028-030-031-040-501-505>507-WVZ051>053-
130300-
/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0003.170313T2300Z-170314T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0003.170313T2300Z-170314T1800Z/
Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-
Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-
Frederick VA-Warren-Clarke-Rappahannock-Northern Fauquier-
Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-
Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
258 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 2 PM EDT
TUESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has
issued a Winter Storm Warning for snow, which is in effect from 7
PM Monday to 2 PM EDT Tuesday. The Winter Storm Watch is no
longer in effect.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...Snow.

* ACCUMULATIONS...Snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches.

* TIMING...Snow will overspread the area Monday evening and
  persist through Tuesday morning.

* IMPACTS...The heavy snow will make many roads impassable and
  may produce power outages due to the weight of the snow on
  tree limbs and power lines.

* WINDS...Northeast 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph.

[winterymix]

The 700 mb depiction does not dry out until 20Z Wednesday.

Am wondering if we in Central MD, NVA retain snow showers after the initial thump

until Wed. afternoon.  Not nec. a lot of inches, but on and off light snow after the thump

for another day.

[Chase]

Winter Storm Warning up, but only for NW. 

[yoda]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
258 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017



DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-501-502-504-506-508-VAZ025>027-029-036>039-
050>055-502>504-508-WVZ050-055-501>506-130300-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0003.170313T2300Z-170314T1800Z/
District of Columbia-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-
Anne Arundel-Extreme Western Allegany-
Central and Eastern Allegany-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Central and Southeast Howard-Southeast Harford-Augusta-Rockingham-
Shenandoah-Page-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Orange-Culpeper-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Southern Fauquier-
Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-
Hampshire-Hardy-Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-
Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton-Eastern Pendleton-
258 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...Snow.

* ACCUMULATION...Potential for 5 or more inches of snow within
  12 hours. Some locations may see significantly higher
  accumulation.

* TIMING...Snow will overspread the area Monday evening and
  persist through Tuesday morning.

[EHoffman]

DC Metro remains in a watch.

[dtk]

2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I know they are giving the American models extra data for this storm (dropsondes I think), not sure about the European ones.

Generally speaking, recon dropsondes are sent over the GTS and shared for all international centers to assimilate.  I can't believe that I made it through the thread without seeing a single mention of "double surface lows" or "convective feedback".  Sad!

[Fozz]

2 minutes ago, Chase said:

Winter Storm Warning up, but only for NW. 

Sweet. Looking forward to this. They seem to be leaning a little low compared to the guidance, which isn't a bad idea since it's March and it's a Miller B.

[winterymix]

Just now, Fozz said:

Sweet. Looking forward to this. They seem to be leaning a little low compared to the guidance, which isn't a bad idea since it's March and it's a Miller B.

In the zone forecast, they call for 7 to 15 in our area.