midatlanticweather Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Let me know if this needs to be removed. Got it off Twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: LOL does SV seriously show no snow for DC? Sounds like something CWG would want to hug. It seems like If surface is >32° at all, it counts it as rain, no matter the 850s or rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: For you maybe. It's warm for DC. i meant for the east coast based on the low pressure mb, tracking and scope of the storm. This will go down in the books man...maybe not for us but in general Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Good god. Philly gets smoked! Solid 10-20 for Nova. Cant really complain about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 SV seems way too conservative. No way out west towards 81 is only 10". Just like WxBell is over generous with snowfall amounts it's vice versa with SV. But of course CWG hugs it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 That sv map is too low. It's surface based and there would be plenty of snow falling along 95 and dc. The wxbell map is too high verbatim. Would not be 10:1 east of the fall line and mixing for sure at some point. It's an improved run from 0z with progression and qpf. That's unquestionable. But the devil is in the details. I take it as a win. Philly and western burbs get freekin nuked though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Gonna be an insanely hard forecast for DC. I could see anything from like 4-16 inches possible in the immediate DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That sounds good. Probably pretty cold everywhere then. Yep. That would be my take on it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 That map CWG tweeted is definitely off PHL has mixing issues but has way more snow than depicted. Probably similar for DC too. It's a classic I-95 bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Balance between Weatherbell and SV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Good god. Philly gets smoked! Solid 10-20 for Nova. Cant really complain about that. The euro has been the most inconsistent model for the past two days, perhaps only bested by the CMC in that regard. Something to consider before getting too high or low based on its solution. The vast majority of data suggests a big storm for most of the region. Also, I'm pretty sure that many times events come in colder than the euro forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Hmmmmm, not sure what to think. That area nuked is just north and east of Baltimore. Wouldn't take much to get that to slide down southwest one would think, but you could also see warm air being too much, especially if this keeps trending, and it ends up being a storm for farther out in MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 26 minutes ago, yoda said: If that even came close to being true... I wish and so would this forum... but isn't RPM an okay model? Or does it suck? WBAL likes to use it a lot. Always seemed to be dry and fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Euro does seem to be wobbling more than GFS. Perhaps USA scores a coup with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Go low in DC itself. The tarmac at the airport with the wind blowing and sleet mixing in will record some abnormally low totals. Just outside DC will be far higher. DCA could record 5 inches while the rest of the region is 10-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I'd say ECMWF and UKMET are pretty much the goal posts at this point. ECMWF is a cautionary tale of too little too late with the phasing. This is really a nowcast game at this point. Think 8" for DC proper is a solid bet with good upside potential. More N/WSent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, nj2va said: Euro does seem to be wobbling more than GFS. Perhaps USA scores a coup with this. It's hopping around like frog legs in a skillet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 There's a reason certain areas here are 'favorable.' We're trending into a classic 95 dividing line setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: It's hopping around like frog legs in a skillet. It's strength of the LP at our latitude was a big outlier at 0z last night and it's now come into line with other guidance with that. I certainly don't have high confidence in the model as I did in years past. Goes to show you how difficult the forecast will be especially along 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I-78 Harrisburg to Newark appears to be the ideal spot on most models. Phasing occurs slightly late for us, but we still get hit pretty good especially in northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: That sv map is too low. It's surface based and there would be plenty of snow falling along 95 and dc. The wxbell map is too high verbatim. Would not be 10:1 east of the fall line and mixing for sure at some point. It's an improved run from 0z with progression and qpf. That's unquestionable. But the devil is in the details. I take it as a win. Philly and western burbs get freekin nuked though. Bob, how important today is the EPS ? Do we still add it to the mix, even now that we are closer to the event? I would think it is still useful under these circumstances , what are your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The euro has been the most inconsistent model for the past two days, perhaps only bested by the CMC in that regard. Something to consider before getting too high or low based on its solution. The vast majority of data suggests a big storm for most of the region. Also, I'm pretty sure that many times events come in colder than the euro forecast. Yep. We know our climo with these monstesr. It seems like a little over an inch of QPF is realistic for us. I would guess a foot or a little more if I had to right now. There will always be elevation lolly's though. I have plenty of elevation so I hope I am one of those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Seems this low is trending stronger. I'd think that would possibly mean both wetter and colder. That could be a win for everyone. Hopefully anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC2Winston Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Go low in DC itself. The tarmac at the airport with the wind blowing and sleet mixing in will record some abnormally low totals. Just outside DC will be far higher. DCA could record 5 inches while the rest of the region is 10-15. 1000% agree on this. If DCA officially gets to 5"...you can conservatively double that as close as Fairfax City, Tysons, Bethesda/Rockville. Sold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 This was the final count for the area with Eurowx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, frd said: Bob, how important today is the EPS ? Do we still add it to the mix, even now that we are closer to the event? I would think it is still useful under these circumstances , what are your thoughts? Not really imortant at all. Neither is the gefs. All they are going to show is a smoothed mean of the op run. Global ops are the big heavyweights for sure right now. Gfs has been the most consistent but it could easily shift a little west at 18z. All globals show fairly sig precip though the entire region. The goal posts are really narrow. After 0z tonight its mostly just chips fall mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It's hopping around like frog legs in a skillet. LOL. I get your point and I think it's spot on. Think that everyone will be satisfied with this storm. Trending stronger with each run and I think stronger could mean colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: There's a reason certain areas here are 'favorable.' We're trending into a classic 95 dividing line setup. 850 mb easterly flow up to 50kts raises my eyebrows a bit. I've seen this script before. Feb 13, 2014 was the most recent example, and MBY here in AA got about 7" before the switch. But...That was mid Feb, not mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Not really imortant at all. Neither is the gefs. All they are going to show is a smoothed mean of the op run. Global ops are the big heavyweights for sure right now. Gfs has been the most consistent but it could easily shift a little west at 18z. All globals show fairly sig precip though the entire region. The goal posts are really narrow. After 0z tonight its mostly just chips fall mode. Thanks Bob. I hope we all do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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