stormtracker Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 We're just going to accept reality and just get it in or heads that we mix..at least DC and immediate burbs. West guys are ok I think. No point it getting sour about it. It's a bummer for sure, but we still get good snows it seems. And who knows...could be a wobble inside the envelope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The U.K. Might not be that bad. The map makes it look more west by how it places the L on the west edge of the slp and how it gets there is important. It seems it goes over va beach then turns north. That's not as bad as if it tracks inside then ne to get there. Let's see what the temp profiles look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 0c line during height of storm at 850s reaches 95, so likely rains at some point even in immediate N/W burbs like Chevy Chase/Elliott City/Cockeysville, these areas probably get at least 70% Snow from this storm. Just my opinion on where a Rain/snow line would be on this model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The UKMet is probably close to top potential... Speed up the transfer by 6 hours and we probably resolve some of the thermal concerns. I'd take the UKmet and run in a heartbeat, and run the risk with thermals Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, NinjaWarrior2 said: 0c line during height of storm at 850s reaches 95, so likely rains at some point even in immediate N/W burbs like Chevy Chase/Elliott City/Cockeysville. a +0C 850 isn't necessarily rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We're just going to accept reality and just get it in or heads that we mix..at least DC and immediate burbs. West guys are ok I think. No point it getting sour about it. It's a bummer for sure, but we still get good snows it seems. And who knows...could be a wobble inside the envelope It's naive to think we won't mix at some point. It happens pretty much every single big storm in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, EHoffman said: It's naive to think we won't mix at some point. It happens pretty much every single big storm in DC. There's a huge difference between some IP when rates slacken vs pouring rain for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, NinjaWarrior2 said: 0c line during height of storm at 850s reaches 95, so likely rains at some point even in immediate N/W burbs like Chevy Chase/Elliott City/Cockeysville, these areas probably get at least 70% Snow from this storm. Just my opinion on where a Rain/snow line would be on this model. What? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, hosj III said: There's a huge difference between some IP when rates slacken vs pouring rain for hours. For sure. I'm just saying at this point it's pretty unlikely we see an all snow solution inside the beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, PhineasC said: This is the psuhoffman storm. Not sure where he is, but a bomb like this is what he wanted. I'm pleased. We have some serious cold in place. If this thing bombs it will wrap up tight and the temps might break our way. And obviously where I am stands to get crushed. But even if it mixes up 95 it would thump first and probably flip back too and a dynamic storm is more fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 So now the GFS is the outlier. The only model not showing it had insisted on Thursday and Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The U.K. Might not be that bad. The map makes it look more west by how it places the L on the west edge of the slp and how it gets there is important. It seems it goes over va beach then turns north. That's not as bad as if it tracks inside then ne to get there. Let's see what the temp profiles look like. This is what you wanted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 17 minutes ago, hosj III said: Does the CMC mix for I-95? Hard to tell from the trop tidbits maps Yes. Pivotalweather is a good site for p-type issues. It also shows the Kuchera ratio, which will knock down totals in places where it may be snowing, but it's too warm to accumulate much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 12z GEFS Means FWIW are in lockstep, all are big (all 20/21 members). They all show over 7" for DC and Baltimore, and only one indv member has mixing issues for I-95 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Are the scale colors adjusting frame by frame in the pivotal weather map? That makes it hard to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 12z GEFS mean FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 West of the fall line never flipped to plain rain during 3/93 with an over the Delmarva track. Of course that was a much deeper bomb. But 12/69 managed the same thing-- over the Delmarva track with no plain rain west of the fall line. Even 3/29/84 managed to be mostly snow west of the fall line with an over the Delmarva track. The bad part of course is that DC didn't manage so well in all three events. So yes, need to have the track be east of the Delmarva for the cities to stay all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 That mean snowfall map is ridiculous. 10+ for just about everyone for the mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 ukie would suggest some insane dynamics across 95 - whether its sleet or snow or some mix would be a wild period as low bombs.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Best GFS mean yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jviper Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Where is Wes? What's he got to say about all this? He's better then all the models usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Are the scale colors adjusting frame by frame in the pivotal weather map? That makes it hard to read. I never noticed that. I don't think they're supposed to change. On the individual images on the web site they're the same. It might be an artifact of the GIF creation process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Maybe I'm naïve, but I'm not overly concerned about mixing issues for right along 95 yet. Ukie and CMC tend to be too amped. GFS is definitely east, but unless Euro comes west to where Ukie and CMC are, I feel like a blend of the GFS and Euro would be pretty great and the two aren't even that far apart as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 GEFS mean looks a lot like the operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 16 minutes ago, NinjaWarrior2 said: 0c line during height of storm at 850s reaches 95, so likely rains at some point even in immediate N/W burbs like Chevy Chase/Elliott City/Cockeysville, these areas probably get at least 70% Snow from this storm. Just my opinion on where a Rain/snow line would be on this model. I don't think so. Cockeysville is well to the west of the fall line, so if 850 temps reach 0°C along I-95, it certainly won't rain. Maybe a little sleet at the most, but as others said, that's very different from going through hours of driving rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: GEFS mean looks a lot like the operational It should now that we only 36 hours from kickoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, gymengineer said: West of the fall line never flipped to plain rain during 3/93 with an over the Delmarva track. Of course that was a much deeper bomb. But 12/69 managed the same thing-- over the Delmarva track with no plain rain west of the fall line. Even 3/29/84 managed to be mostly snow west of the fall line with an over the Delmarva track. The bad part of course is that DC didn't manage so well in all three events. So yes, need to have the track be east of the Delmarva for the cities to stay all snow. On the bright side this air mass is legendary for leading into a march storm. It was like 50 degrees the day before 3/93. I think a mix is reasonable but there seems to be cold before and after this. The waa is what will get us the thump. My biggest concern would be the easterly component when the coastal cranks. That's when we'll start seeing images being posted of the approaching sleet line. Might get close to dc then sag back east. At least that's my hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Last post from me about the ukie. I don't care what the verbatim output shows. A 989 over the delmarva is gping to bring mixing issues for some west of 95. Me included. How much is hard to say. But historical data is strong showing the likely hood. And I'm totally good with that. It's a qpf bomb. If it mixes then sobeit. Most would still be thrilled with the outcome. Onto the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Last post from me about the ukie. I don't care what the verbatim output shows. A 989 over the delmarva is gping to bring mixing issues for some west of 95. Me included. How much is hard to say. But historical data is strong showing the likely hood. And I'm totally good with that. It's a qpf bomb. If it mixes then sobeit. Most would still be thrilled with the outcome. Onto the euro. UKMET is better here with the same track as the GGEM, which has a deathband over HGR and a dryslot over central MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Last post from me about the ukie. I don't care what the verbatim output shows. A 989 over the delmarva is gping to bring mixing issues for some west of 95. Me included. How much is hard to say. But historical data is strong showing the likely hood. And I'm totally good with that. It's a qpf bomb. If it mixes then sobeit. Most would still be thrilled with the outcome. Onto the euro. Agreed. At least you're above the fall line. I'm on a hill in hyattsville, but that only puts me about 150 feet ASL. Honestly, I'd be happy with a storm that mixes with heavy sleet. Seeing everything just totally coated in ice, or ice in snow snow layers, is cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.