hosj III Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1.0-1.4" QPF south to north on para norm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: NAM para is beautiful. Looks like everyone wins. No. 850 Line stays NW of DC for the whole storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 7 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Is this 1+ inches in 6 hours or total QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The old NAM is a fast mover but it still demolishes NW of the cities. Would be some crazy rates if it is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Is there a way to see total accums? Or is it paywalled? same ncep url with "eval" added http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=NAM&area=NAMER&ps=area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The 850 line is barely NW of DC at 57... rates would suggest its snow based on the image above in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Parallel NAM definitely much closer to the globals. 850 stays just west of DC hence the lower accumulations. Continues to trend towards the globals. That's the key takeaway and all other NAM discussion should really just end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Is that a 2.2 precip jackpot at Syracuse? Classic NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 (Who Tony is in respect to his tweet above -- Meteorologist in DC! I work for the WPC (NOAA-NWS) (formerly HPC) but this is my personal account. Enjoy. Cornell/SUNY-ALB ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: TT sucks tonight. Slow loading There must be something up with the feeds. IWM is only to 22. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, RidingTheModelWithMostSnow said: TT sucks tonight. Slow loading It's not TT. Stuff is slow to load off the NCEP servers. Other sites having the same problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I am going to guess DC corridor gets demolished between 54 and 57 on the 00z 4km NAM. Reason being at hour 54 0c 850 line is flirting with DC... hr 57 and DC has 850s of -4c and you can clearly see the change on the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, MN Transplant said: There must be something up with the feeds. IWM is only to 22. Pivotal weather says that there are problems with slow download speeds from NCEP servers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 22 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Para nam definitely seems to come in more in line with the globals and other guidance. If that's how its going to work when it becomes operational then that's a huge improvement. It's mega wet compared to its prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It's mega wet compared to its prior runs. It is but even prior runs today had a track very different than the other 14 nams that were much more similar to the global envelope. Seems to be an improvement from what little I've seen so far this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: I see 30" lollies just south of Williamsport, pa..lol Just now, Bob Chill said: It is but even prior runs today had a track very different than the other 14 nams that were much more similar to the global envelope. Seems to be an improvement from what little I've seen so far this year. My take from the para NAM is that it gets the storm going and consolidated much farther south than its 12z run did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just want the alignment to continue and good tracks with plenty of precipitation. Glad NAM is doing so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 It did seem to develop it sooner and farther south. Keep that trend going and we might have ourselves a real bomb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: My take from the para NAM is that it gets the storm going and consolidated much farther south than its 12z run did. Could that be related to the dropsonde data from the Gulf that NCEP noted was added for this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, dukeblue219 said: Could that be related to the dropsonde data from the Gulf that NCEP noted was added for this run? I'm sure any added data plays a role but it started doing that at 18z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I did notice that the southern low position was well south of the 18Z location in the Gulf. I also wonder if the dropsonde data had an effect on that. I am guessing if the low starts further south it gives it more time to get its act together before it gets to our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 RGEM says rain arrives in DC around rush hour (6 pm) on Monday, but it looks like it quickly changes over as the sun goes down. It looks like it starts as snow in Baltimore around 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, cae said: RGEM says rain arrives in DC around rush hour (6 pm) on Monday, but it looks like it quickly changes over as the sun goes down. It looks like it starts as snow in Baltimore around 7. I wish it went beyond 48. It seemed as if it was heading for a good event here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: I wish it went beyond 48. It seemed as if it was heading for a good event here. The RGEM ensemble goes out to 72, but I don't know of any site other than meteocentre that carries it. I'd love to see some ensemble mean maps from these. http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/ensemble-forecasting.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=cmc_reps&hh=072&stn=PT&stn_type=postagestamp&display=img Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Rgem really juiced up the waa precip in front of the southern low compared to 18z. Thats one way to help juice up the event. Get a good shot of waa before ccb as the low cranks off the coast. Euro has around .2-.3 between 0z and 6z Tuesday. Rgem would be much more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Rgem animated. .. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html That's the CMC/GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 00z 4km NAM finally finished Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Rgem animated. .. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html That is so very text book. It is such a fast mover. The overnight hours early Tuesday seem to feature this bombing low slamming into cold air damming between the Bay and the Apps. By sunrise, the low is just east of us and the massive rates move off to the NE. Notice the secondary snow later when the 500 mb low crosses our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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