stormtracker Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Go figure, Canadian has the freezing surface line east of DC on that same panel. Dumb. Probably some sneaky warm layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Go figure, Canadian has the freezing surface line east of DC on that same panel. Dumb. Perhaps it's just noise, then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 GGEM runs warm because it's always cold in Canada so a few degrees don't matter. Anyway, I like the run. Looks like a crushing for those who stay snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Probably some sneaky warm layer Don't see it at the 700 or 850mb level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 GGEM has been west, east, west, east, etc. It also tends to overamp, so I'm guessing the storm won't be over the Delmarva and it probably won't be 988 either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 GFS could be totally wrong, but it's been rock solid in its solution. I'll ride that until further notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, caviman2201 said: That precip map is misleading... WxBell shows 850 0C S & E of 95/cities. 2m Temps are really close (31 @ BWI & DCA). Verbatim it isn't plain rain by any means and with those rates, its probably SN+ Wait, seriously? Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, vinylfreak89 said: GEM has that weird double maxima thing the NAM/RGEM did... so that's 3 vs 1 at this stage for the double max... Still not sure it's a final solution, but better resolution may mean it's sniffing the energy transfer better than the GFS. Does anyone who is better with analogs have any examples of a double maxima like this? Doesn't even have to be for our subforum... it's just not something I recall seeing before and kind of flys in the face of what I know about jet orientation and lift dynamics. Not saying its wrong, because several models showing it has to give some pause. Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Jan 2000 had more snow west and east of DC than over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Go figure, Canadian has the freezing surface line east of DC on that same panel. Dumb. The precip type is for avg of that 6 hour period. It was snowing at 6z. At 12z it's thumping snow up 95 but for a time between 6z and 12z it changed to rain. That's my read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Don't see it at the 700 or 850mb level Hmm, maybe the TT algorithm is off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: The precip type is for avg of that 6 hour period. It was snowing at 6z. At 12z it's thumping snow up 95 but for a time between 6z and 12z it changed to rain. That's my read. But why would there be rain? Temps are right at freezing... no real warm layer that I can see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I see the snow map... we buy the 12z GGEM IMO... I-81 crew will like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, yoda said: I see the snow map... we buy the 12z GGEM yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Jan 2000 had more snow west and east of DC than over it.Still had a single deformation axis though... I'm referring to radar presentation, not what falls on the ground or crystal typeSent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 GGEM is on the west end of guidance with slp. It's a great run as is and even better with a gfs track. 2 for 2 @ 12z with the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: I see the snow map... we buy the 12z GGEM IMO... I-81 crew will like Love it. I also like that the GGEM has a bit longer duration than a lot of past runs. Still snowing heavily in the morning for many of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just as an FYI URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1201 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017 VAZ025-026-036>038-050-503-504-WVZ505-506-130015- /O.EXA.KLWX.WS.A.0003.170313T2300Z-170314T1800Z/ Augusta-Rockingham-Nelson-Albemarle-Greene-Orange- Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 1201 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has issued a Winter Storm Watch, which is in effect from Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...Snow. * ACCUMULATION...Potential for 5 or more inches of snow within 12 hours. Greater accumulations will be possible at higher elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1201 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017 DCZ001-MDZ003>006-011-013-014-501>508-VAZ027>031-039-040-051>055- 501-502-505>508-WVZ050>053-055-501>504-130015- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0003.170313T2300Z-170314T1800Z/ District of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll- Northern Baltimore-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery- Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford- Southeast Harford-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke- Madison-Rappahannock-Culpeper- Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax- Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Northern Fauquier- Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun- Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge- Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy-Western Grant- Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral- 1201 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... * PRECIPITATION TYPE...Snow. * ACCUMULATION...Potential for 5 or more inches of snow within 12 hours. Some locations may see significantly higher accumulation. * TIMING...Snow will overspread the area Monday evening and persist through Tuesday morning. * IMPACTS...The heavy snow may make many roads impassable and may produce power outages due to the weight of the snow on tree limbs and power lines. * WINDS...Northeast 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. * TEMPERATURES...In the lower 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Bernie Rayno seems to really like the track for 95. Said he does think GFS is a bit too far east. Also think it is slowing a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Actually I just went back and looked at Jan 2000 radar... it actually did have that double axis. Looking back at the h5 maps there are actually some similarities with a strong h5 max and weaker ULL to the north (though it's pretty far north)Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Bernie Rayno seems to really like the track for 95. Said he does think GFS is a bit too far east. Also think it is slowing a tad. 95 as in DC proper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 UK looks like a coastal hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Yea, ukie with a 989 over the delmarva can only mean one thing for my yard. And it's not deep powder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Bob Chill said: Yea, ukie with a 989 over the delmarva can only mean one thing for my yard. And it's not deep powder. Yeah this isn't a classic look is it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, Porsche said: UK looks like a coastal hugger. Just based off that map alone, that looks precariously close to you guys in dc and the guys on 95 or am I wrong? Edit: And I meant for possible mixing but I saw Bob chime in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just based off that map alone, that looks precariously close to you guys in dc and the guys on 95 or am I wrong? This seems not greatSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Ukie is incredibly wet. Hard to tell but looks like 2.2"+ qpf for 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, hosj III said: Ukie is incredibly wet. Hard to tell but looks like 2.2"+ qpf for 95 With a low track that close to the coast, hard to believe it will be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Not quite sure what to make of the 12z UKIE... snow to rain to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Ukie looks just like the CMC to me. Almost identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.