MillvilleWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Damn, GFS has a more classic deform band going still at noon hereFunny you mention that. NAM3km actually had something similar and we are starting to get into range of details like this. The GFS run was very nice. H5 depiction was a sweet setup for almost everyone in here. GFS MAY be a hair too cold, but have to like the QPF presentation. Bombing lows with Atlantic feeds will almost always have high precip totals. Question will just become the thermals up to game time. Precip with this system for our subforum is the last of my concerns. Closer in, models will get a better idea on banding structures and tbh, HRRR is best at handling that, so we would have to wait for that anyway. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Excellent! I don't mind a little less qpf if it is good temp news for our east of I-95 folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 What's the chance we end up getting a phase and this thing slows down significantly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, vinylfreak89 said: Echoing what others have said the GFS looks fantastic and much closer to a full phase...i think QPF is down slightly because of losing the inverted trough look. If this is where we end up, will be very happy, but this is a nice tend kicked off from 6z, and I think there is still upside potential Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk If a full phase were to occur, would that be a cut-off LP which would slow it down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Big trends wrt the ull. Keeps trending more and more southwest. Ns really dug deep this cycle, allowing to phase with southern stream. This one keeps getting interesting every run now. Edit: close to phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Look at the 850 temps over DC/Baltimore/ (and most importantly)my backyard at 12z Tuesday from the GFS. That extra cold pocket means there's some serious 850mb frontogenesis going on here and that means probably some beautiful dendrite formation and rakeage. Does this area of frontogenesis move NE as time progesses , following the storm center North and East ? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, frd said: Does this area of frontogenesis move NE as time progesses , following the storm center North and East ? Thanks Based on IWM, it looks like it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Gfs has been incredibly consistent with the southern vort passing like this. It's just a perfect spot to light up the nw side of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Why? I was just pointing out exactly what it showed at 500, and it was accurate. Meant to say posts. Sometimes no matter what it shows early it can be different later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 question from newbie... I note on TT maps at 54 for the 12z GFS that the SLP is now east of Cape May, whereas on the equivalent 66 panel for the 00z GFS, it is east of Nantucket, so it seems to have slowed down quite a bit. Is this because of the additional phasing that the 12z GFS is accounting for? Thanks and I'll shut up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 https://mobile.twitter.com/kathrynprociv/status/840923668700135424 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Based on IWM, it looks like it does. Much appreciated , thanks. I hope you get pounded out there!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Wish this was 12Z Monday. Perfect run for everyone in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Gfs has been incredibly consistent with the southern vort passing like this. It's just a perfect spot to light up the nw side of the low. The banding structures from this system should be impressive. I'm liking the H5 setup more today than any days leading up. There's also nothing better than some ULL love while cleaning up. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: https://mobile.twitter.com/kathrynprociv/status/840923668700135424 Goes along with that 850mb frontogenesis. This run is probably the best look I've seen yet for a rocking powder bomb in the deform band. Previous runs seemed to focus the heaviest snow on the initial WAA thump. The spots that can maximize both the WAA thump overnight and then get into some great dendrite formation in the deform band will be doing very nice. I like how GFS says my backyard is such a spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 We really need to drop the full phase and capture talk. For our latitude we would need the ns energy to close off to our SW. There is no way that is happening. No model is even close. The ns vort slowed a little so the storm slow a little as well. But there will be no stall/capture here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Great run. The regional models are all trying to place meso scale banding but it's too far out for that. I would trust the location of the globals still then as we get within 24 hours start to look at where the banding might set up. Great gfs run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 If a full phase were to occur, would that be a cut-off LP which would slow it down?Probably not going to slow down the actual movement of low pressure... maybe by another 6 hours or something... it's a very progressive jet, but a full phase could cause a cyclonic loop as well as a more pronounced deformation axis on the southwest edge (ala 2/5/2010)... but even with a full phase, we are not talking a 36 hour storm, just maybe a bit more moderate to heavy snow after 15z and more dynamics with the ULL pass (which also would probably happen quicker with a full phase)... there are downsides to this too... A sneaky warm layer at 825 or a bit higher tends to show up as things get vertically stacked, which makes pingers a possibility, especially in lullsSent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: The banding structures from this system should be impressive. I'm liking the H5 setup more today than any days leading up. There's also nothing better than some ULL love while cleaning up. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Every single run the gfs is stead fast lately. It could be wrong of course but unwavering like it has and being like 36 hours from onset is calming on the nerves. If the gfs verifies, the wintery appeal of the event in its entirety would be historic. Even better than st paddy 2014. Just need the euro to jump in and the elephant in the room will leave. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Pretty sure we like the 12z GGEM at hr 36... DC is easily inside the 25mm+ precip boundary and it stretches back to the I-81 corridor... 992mb SLP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Great run. The regional models are all trying to place meso scale banding but it's too far out for that. I would trust the location of the globals still then as we get within 24 hours start to look at where the banding might set up. Great gfs run. Couldn't agree more. I don't like to look for things like that up until game time just because they will change many times at long leads. The HRRR is going to be very useful by Monday afternoon and evening leading into prime time. Given the setup, multiple bands are likely and prime spots such as the higher terrain in Carrol and the 81 corridor will likely see their fare share. It's going to be a great storm to watch unfold. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Great run. The regional models are all trying to place meso scale banding but it's too far out for that. I would trust the location of the globals still then as we get within 24 hours start to look at where the banding might set up. Great gfs run. RGEM/NAM Meso thermals are nagging me though. For you, it doesn't matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The CMC is warmer, with rain into DC. Still crushes I-81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
m045400 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Wish this was 12Z Monday. Perfect run for everyone in the game. Except for those of us down here in Southern Maryland. What is causing the snow from not accumulating down here? Water temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 We really need to drop the full phase and capture talk. For our latitude we would need the ns energy to close off to our SW. There is no way that is happening. No model is even close. The ns vort slowed a little so the storm slow a little as well. But there will be no stall/capture here. I don't think a classic full phase is really in the cards where the ULL becomes completely vertically stacked... there is already too much separation, but you can already see better alignment of the 2.5 shortwaves and more of an indication the ULL wants to open up and reform closer to the primary baroclinic axis... that's what I'm referring to by a full phase, is an energy transfer at 500 as well as sfcSent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I don't mean to crap in the thread, but the Canadian looks slightly weaker, west, and verbatim it looks like a mix or rain along 95 at 48..GEM has that weird double maxima thing the NAM/RGEM did... so that's 3 vs 1 at this stage for the double max... Still not sure it's a final solution, but better resolution may mean it's sniffing the energy transfer better than the GFS. Does anyone who is better with analogs have any examples of a double maxima like this? Doesn't even have to be for our subforum... it's just not something I recall seeing before and kind of flys in the face of what I know about jet orientation and lift dynamics. Not saying its wrong, because several models showing it has to give some pause.Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I don't mean to crap in the thread, but the Canadian looks slightly weaker, west, and verbatim it looks like a mix or rain along 95 at 48.. Yeah, that's unfortunate, but still a pretty good dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Go figure, Canadian has the freezing surface line east of DC on that same panel. Dumb. And so is the 0c 850c line... so that is still prob SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 That precip map is misleading... WxBell shows 850 0C S & E of 95/cities. 2m Temps are really close (31 @ BWI & DCA). Verbatim it isn't plain rain by any means and with those rates, its probably SN+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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