PhineasC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: It does. Also LWX's latest AFD postulates that a 43 degree Chesapeake Bay will make it easier for the mix line to get shoved west. It sounds like they favor the Euro/NAM. Sounds like you should do your homework, bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 RGEM is similar to the NAM with a very nice long duration band over the 81 corridor. It does have some boundary temp issues east of western Loudoun County though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Rgem snow map shows 2-4 for D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Rgem tracks slp west of the sound in NC before exiting the coast hence the the warmer surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The NAM has been showing a jet max riding up the Appalachians in front of the northern stream system for several runs. GFS has been placing that streak much further to the southeast. Makes a big difference for the evolution of the system, especially for those of us along the I-81 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, BTRWx said: It's very rare for the NAM to outperform the GFS at this range imo. No doubt about it man. Its just Pack and I have been having discussions in the southeast forum over the last couple days. The nam has been very insistent on having much heavier qpf production further west than most if not all guidance. Good to see rgem for me put 81 in the heavy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Rgem snow map shows 2-4 for D.C. It shows 5-6. Like the nam, it has that midstorm changeover that kills everything around 09z Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, eurojosh said: It shows 5-6. Like the nam, it has that midstorm changeover that kills everything around 09z Tuesday morning. What did it show before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 RGEM has two QPF maxes. Along or just west of 81 and east on the eastern shore. In between is less than 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: RGEM is similar to the NAM with a very nice long duration band over the 81 corridor. It does have some boundary temp issues east of western Loudoun County though. To actually give credence to the nam, the last two cycles of the gfs runs has pushed that deform or area of heavier qpf further west as well now. Will be interesting to see 12z coming up in a min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The RGEM having the deformation axis along I-81 in agreement with the NAM is scaring me... could be a step towards the final evolution of phasing or it could be a too little too late situation. Very curious to see what the globals doSent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherCCB Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 This seems like an nowcast situation with 50 to 75 miles make a difference between winners and losers I'm just happy I'm still in the game . I set my bar at 6 inches for my backyard . Fully expect mixing, with the system this dynamic in Jan. we would mix muchless March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: To actually give credence to the nam, the last two cycles of the gfs runs has pushed that deform or area of heavier qpf further west as well now. Will be interesting to see 12z coming up in a min. Really? The past couple runs of the GFS seemed to keep nailing the Balt/DC corridor and to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, vinylfreak89 said: The RGEM having the deformation axis along I-81 in agreement with the NAM is scaring me... could be a step towards the final evolution of phasing or it could be a too little too late situation. Very curious to see what the globals do Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Yeah. The NAM by itself is fine..but RGEM kinda joining it is a little worrisome. Still not going to go all panic mode...let's see what the big boys do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, Ltrain said: How far out does the RGEM go? On TT it goes out to 48 and it looks to be snowing heavily and there is still more to come. Even at 48 the DC and Balt area are around 7". It does go to 48. And it is NOT a bad run for DC. It's just very different from the global guidance overnight. There is a lot of mixing east of the usual places during the middle of the storm. Although that is not necessarily abnormal in big Noreasters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, Ltrain said: Really? The past couple runs of the GFS seemed to keep nailing the Balt/DC corridor and to the east. I believe the hour 45 frame of the gfs actually pushed the initial formation of that deform band further west as it almost forms over me or just to my easy and then pivots up toward you folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 So for DC the Canadian as regressed from: 00z = 1.4 in QPF 06z = 0.78 in QPF 12z = 0.4 in QPF Quite a drop off in its QPF projection in just a 12 hour time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, ohwxguy said: So for DC the Canadian as regressed from: 00z = 1.4 in QPF 06z = 0.78 in QPF 12z = 0.4 in QPF Quite a drop off in its QPF projection in just a 12 hour time frame. 12z GGEM is not even out yet and there is no 6z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Some differences apparent at 500 at 18h. Everything appears to be a little west of its previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, ohwxguy said: So for DC the Canadian as regressed from: 00z = 1.4 in QPF 06z = 0.78 in QPF 12z = 0.4 in QPF Quite a drop off in its QPF projection in just a 12 hour time frame. 0.7" on WxBell through 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 So it seems like we're trending towards what the coastals always do for our area: Mixed precip E and along 95 due to warm layer, all snow W and the favorable areas N/W get the most snow. The models are great but they aren't a substitute for hyper local experience. To my highly untrained eye this is evolving towards more of a typical DC snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, ohwxguy said: So for DC the Canadian as regressed from: 00z = 1.4 in QPF 06z = 0.78 in QPF 12z = 0.4 in QPF Quite a drop off in its QPF projection in just a 12 hour time frame. No. The RGEM only runs through 48 and there is a TON of precip left after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Ok people. Make sure you check what it is you are posting before posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Some differences apparent at 500 at 18h. Everything appears to be a little west of its previous run. Looks pretty similar to me through 24... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Trough is further west at 24. Digs a bit more too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, eurojosh said: Looks pretty similar to me through 24... To me it looks like more digging slightly further west at 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 12z GFS at 36 has SLP development just south of ILM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 NS looks a hair west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohwxguy Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, yoda said: 12z GGEM is not even out yet and there is no 6z GGEM Sorry, referring to the RGEM. Should have been more specific. And I'm not sure where the data is coming from, but while the maps only go out 48 hours, the meteogram goes out 84 hours. Not sure about the data though beyond 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Northern stream really digging this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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