clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Damn shame it's such a fast mover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Well, a blend of the 4 nam operational ensemble looks pretty good. All the nams did individually was confuse us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 12z NAM is stronger than 6z run and it doesn't hug the midatlantic coast like the 6z does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3k gets a good front end thump into the area. Hard to keep track of the NAM family and it's outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: Big jump in qpf production for 81. The NAM has the 850 low tracking further NW then the GFS...whether it's right or not we shall see. Not sure what the Euro did. But NAM is usually a little to far NW with features like this at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Damn shame it's such a fast mover. When that low in the gulf forms along with the phase that's coming it's gonna be like 93!!! Gonna be YUGE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Seems like the 4k is further east w maxes than the 12k and the 3k is further east than the 4k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just seems like the NAM is being the NAM at this range to me. I'll wait and see what the GFS/Euro/UK/CMC look like at 12Z before it concerns me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 You can see how incredibly close to a full phase or is based on this radar image. See the frontal like precip back in WV and the WAA slug over us... if those 2 join...BOOM Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: NAM 3k seems best for MBY. I'll take that one. Same here. Excellent run for Baltimore county and points north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Well... getting ready for the time to see if the big boys -- GGEM/UKIE/GFS-- keep their crushing solutions they had at 00z for 12z. Looks like 06z GFS was a crushing as well for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Putting aside the QPF from the 12k NAM, I still like the idea it has. 995 off NC is a good look for us generally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: When that low in the gulf forms along with the phase that's coming it's gonna be like 93!!! Gonna be YUGE! That would be crazy. It seems like the NAM tried to slow down the progression early in the run. But with no decent blocking once the storm bombed out it moves quickly. I think an inch of QPF is probably realistic for us out here. We are good temp wise like usual. Maybe a foot is doable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Operationally there is quite a bit of extra data going into these model runs now. Likely beginning to see the more uncertain pieces of this storm starting to come together in a good way. UA features, jet structure, cyclogenesis etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 23 minutes ago, winterymix said: stinker I /think/ what's going on there is that there is a period, midstorm, where we turn to FRZ/IP. You can see it more clearly on the 3k nam. That would pack down anything that falls before and reduce accumulations on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Operationally there is quite a bit of extra data going into these model runs now. Likely beginning to see the more uncertain pieces of this storm starting to come together in a good way. UA features, jet structure, cyclogenesis etc. You think the consistency holds or do you feel there are some surprises in store ? And , do you feel the ballons and extra data ( late yesterday ) increased the probabilities of higher accuracy, ie. the GFS , etc. always appreciate your input , thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3km nest isn't so bad even with some mixing http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017031212/nam3km_asnow_eus_49.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: I think it's best we move on from NAM talk. Not worth much outside of 24 IMO. I dont know. I think if the NAM's have a range we are in it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 RGEM looks like a crush job..hard to tell thermals tho http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 21 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: That's a totally useless product. Completely agree. So, our 1.1" of NAM QPF ends up giving us 2" snow-depth? OK. I'm confident that in the end, we will see 2" of snow, but it won't be from 1.1" of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Given the way the NAM has handled the evolution of this storm - which is significantly different from all of the major globals - I'm surprised that it's getting so much attention/credence. It seems pretty obvious if you track the runs over the past 48 hrs that the NAM is slowly moving to look more like the globals. The NAM playing catch-up is not uncommon to see, as we all know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 rgem hung up on TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The globals are in fairly good agreement. The NAM still is different, but had been trending toward that global model consensus. So while I wouldn't completely toss a NAM solution at 36hrs, I'd still weight it much less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, pasnownut said: rgem hung up on TT http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html You can get it a bit further out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Paleocene said: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html You can get it a bit further out here. thx. bookmarked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Nam must have a warm laywe, but I'm driving so I can't check. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 24 minutes ago, packbacker said: The NAM has the 850 low tracking further NW then the GFS...whether it's right or not we shall see. Not sure what the Euro did. But NAM is usually a little to far NW with features like this at this range. It's very rare for the NAM to outperform the GFS at this range imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 RGEM has some mixing in I-95 corridor. Has heavy precip out towards I-81 like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Nam must have a warm laywe, but I'm driving so I can't check. Lol It does. Also LWX's latest AFD postulates that a 43 degree Chesapeake Bay will make it easier for the mix line to get shoved west. It sounds like they favor the Euro/NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 RGEM looks pretty good but it was hard to decipher since it was very jumpy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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