showmethesnow Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Low is bombing out much quicker with a 995mb off of the outer banks. Think this might end up very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 We're starting to get into the period of time when the NAM gets a touch more value I suppose. That was a pretty big jump at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Stronger winds tooSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The NAM has an unbelievable deform band over the 81 Corridor from Harrisburg PA to Roanoake, VA. It is AMAZING. Holy smoke job Batman. Yes please to the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 31 minutes ago, eurojosh said: Does this algorithm include population impact? 31 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: That's actually really interesting. Is that just a BTV thing? It was developed by BTV and others as a way to assess societal and land use impacts. The population impact is based on urban area designations (for now since it's experimental) and land use impacts are based on things like impact to travel, agricultural, etc... Here's the PDD for the program: WSSIPDD 2.pdf Impact forecasting is an integral part of the Weather Ready Nation program and feedback is important. If you all find it useful, don't be shy about saying so or recommending areas for improvement. It's an important part of sustaining funding for experimental products like this. Here's the comment page: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=WSSI Mt. Holley is the closest participating WFO but covers LWX well. Here's the link: http://www.weather.gov/btv/winterseverity?id=PHI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Hesitate to even bring this up but... we are starting to get awful close to a phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 at 45. 7mb lower. WOW Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: although 48h is a crush panel..but the NAM is slower overall...like 8am and we're just in the middle of the storm? It was slower at h5. I read somewhere that a NE met said things could trend slower. First 12z model out shows this. Not sure if it's a pos, neg, or neutral in the big picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 49 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Has anyone noticed both the gfs and euro getting colder every run after the storm. 6z gfs has my area barely getting out of the teens on Wednesday. Even if its running 6-7 degrees too warm that still is extremely cold for Mid March high temp. Taken literally, the GFS doesn't get above freezing here after the storm until a week from now, and it doesn't hit 40 again until March 25. If that even comes close to verifying, it would be absolutely insane for mid-late March, like March 1960 level insane. Absolutely a far cry from last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Hesitate to even bring this up but... we are starting to get awful close to a phase.Yep.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: This is an experimental Decision Support Service (DSS) tool that is being developed at the NWS. From what I have seen, this tool calculates things like road and population density and terrain against the forecasted snow amounts. Wind and snow ratio is also factored in. Every time the NWS develops a test product they deploy it at several pilot offices and those offices ask for feedback from DOTs, OEMs, etc. For example, PHI WFO was a test bed for the new NOAA Weather Radio voice around 2005. Hope this helps. I wonder if it factors in the penchant for MD/DC drivers to be among the worst in the country? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 trough argues for more northerly progression, and less out to sea. If it slows as modelled....look out. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: The NAM has an unbelievable deform band over the 81 Corridor from Harrisburg PA to Roanoake, VA. It is AMAZING. I would of thought for sure looking at h5 it would have been a lot more juiced for areas east of blue ridge and over the coast, where its almost looks like a dry slot. Nam has been extremely consistent on insisting heaviest qpf begins over the entire 81 corridor and then pivoting northeast from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 It was slower at h5. I read somewhere that a NE met said things could trend slower. First 12z model out shows this. Not sure if it's a pos, neg, or neutral in the big picture. Bob, with the h5 vort being so far south, what do you think is causing the deform axis to develop so far away from the best dynamics? I would think it would be about 50 miles east based on that 48 hour h5Sent from my HTC 10 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Certainly a better run the further north you are on the NAM. Precip in our area not as heavy, not as expansive, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 Yeah, this run is warmer, cut down on snow totals. Not saying it's right or wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: It was slower at h5. I read somewhere that a NE met said things could trend slower. First 12z model out shows this. Not sure if it's a pos, neg, or neutral in the big picture. I would look at it as a negative. Then we would be getting into daylight hours when we get the best snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, this run is warmer, cut down on snow totals. Not saying it's right or wrong Doesn't last very long from what I can see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 stinker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Makes sense given what I said about the SREFS being terrible. That said, the evolution was strange. The storm was more in the location of the other models but the precip was all way west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4k NAM seems a little better. Less rain by hr 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, winterymix said: stinker A rather significant change given how close we are to the event. The very areas the overnight EPS had the best snows is the areas the NAM says not so fast What a curveball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The interaction that initiates are storm still falls outside the 24 hr mark so this solution still has to be taken with a good deal of caution. But the evolution at 500mb was somewhat intriguing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, winterymix said: stinker That's a totally useless product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, frd said: A rather significant change given how close we are to the event. The very areas the overnight EPS had the best snows is the areas the NAM says not so fast What a curveball We look to be ok at the surface and 850 throughout the event on the NAM at DC. I wonder if it's bringing in a warm layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: That was for yesterday's 12z run if you look at the date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Big jump in qpf production for 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, yoda said: That was for yesterday's 12z run if you look at the date Yea...i just deleted my post. Just showed up in my Twitter feed and I derped by posting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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