March 13/14th PSU Storm

[smokeybandit]

You mean an hour earlier?

[nj2va]

Just now, eurojosh said:

That's a step down,  no?

It's been waffling back and forth but a bit lower than 0z, yes. coverage to our SW is better. 

JMA is an improvement from 0z 

[dukeblue219]

You mean an hour earlier?

No. An hour later according to our clocks. They keep running at the same intervals as before, so what was a 9:30 NAM now runs at what our clocks say is 10:30.

[attml]

If someone told me we would have these maps in mid-March 3 weeks ago (36 hours out), after the winter we have had, I would be jumping for joy (oh yeah, and I am!!!).  Never look a gift horse in the mouth!

[poolz1]

06z gfs continues the idea of the ull producing a decent topper to the main event.

[yoda]

Latest update the "Most Likely Snowfall Map" as of 8:40 AM this morning

[PDIII]

1 hour ago, mappy said:

I think it's very reasonable for 36hrs or so out from start time. If models keep spitting out higher amounts today, expect WFO to slowly increase their guesses. We do this every storm, they never ever go out with the highest possibility. 

Sounds good to me... you know and when I said it looks like the euro. I was saying that as a good thing.. cause basically.. nws forecast is in line with the most conservative model.... which gives us 6 to 10.  there is a lot of upside to that.... and like you say.. we could see the prognosticated totals go up. should be a fun day.

 

 

[frd]

3 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said:

To add onto yoda's post - here is what Mt. Holly is putting out for the Eastern Shore/DE/Philly Metro

Incredible gradient across Delaware, that is for sure. Thanks for posting that :-)  

I am located on the Southern edge of the 11 inch line in DE. near the C and D Canal 

Normaly what Northern Baltimore gets, I tend to get as well.

Only in last year's Blizzard did that not work out. 

 

 

[PDIII]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

Incredible gradient across Delaware, that is for sure. Thanks for posting that :-)  

I am located on the Southern edge of the 11 inch line in DE. near the C and D Canal 

Normaly what Northern Baltimore gets, I tend to get as well.

Only in last year's Blizzard did that not work out. 

 

 

Your probably gonna get in to some serious deform tuesday morning.  you should be thrilled by your location... 

[yoda]

06z RGEM is smoking the region at 48... 7+ inches of snow for N VA/DC/C MD into NE MD with more heavy snow to go

[HighStakes]

Has anyone noticed both the gfs and euro getting colder every run after the storm. 6z gfs has my area barely getting out of the teens on Wednesday. Even if its running 6-7 degrees too warm that still is extremely cold for Mid March high temp.

[frd]

8 minutes ago, PDIII said:

Your probably gonna get in to some serious deform tuesday morning.  you should be thrilled by your location... 

Super excited here , this appears to have the potential to close schools in the area for multiple days, especailly as it appears very windy and very cold afterwards.   

Many rural, open space farm fields still in the are,  despite many old farms turning in new developments. 

Wind forecasts are very robust with this system. Enjoying the colder trends so far.

 

[osfan24]

FWIW, the last two runs of the SREFS have been terrible. Lost a lot of extreme members and mean has gone down. Highest is now under a foot and the mean is under 4 inches.

[eurojosh]

6 minutes ago, PennQuakerGirl said:

And one more map just for fun (even though it's not quantitative):  NWS's "Winter Storm Severity Index" for the DC/BLT/PHL/NYC area:

Does this algorithm include population impact?

[clskinsfan]

Some huge changes to the Cobb output on the GFS of the past 24 hours. 6Z GFS is a straight up crush job for the cities. I will take my 10 inches and run. Congrats Baltimore:

 

DCA:

170314/0000Z  42  09008KT  35.5F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07   21|  0| 79
170314/0300Z  45  05014KT  31.5F  SNOW    8:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.292    8:1|  2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36  100|  0|  0
170314/0600Z  48  04015KT  31.2F  SNOW    8:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.386    8:1|  5.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.75  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170314/0900Z  51  02016KT  30.6F  SNOW   11:1| 5.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.478    9:1| 11.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.22  100|  0|  0
170314/1200Z  54  36011KT  30.1F  SNOW    7:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.113    9:1| 11.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.34  100|  0|  0
170314/1500Z  57  36009KT  30.1F  SNOW    7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007    9:1| 11.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.35  100|  0|  0
170314/1800Z  60  35003KT  31.9F  SNOW   13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    9:1| 11.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.35  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170314/2100Z  63  VRB00KT  32.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057    9:1| 11.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.41   88|  0| 12
170315/0000Z  66  VRB02KT  29.6F  SNOW    9:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.046    9:1| 12.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.46  100|  0|  0
170315/0300Z  69  26005KT  31.2F  SNOW   12:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041    9:1| 12.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.50  100|  0|  0
170315/0600Z  72  34017KT  27.6F  SNOW   16:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.048   10:1| 13.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.55  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170315/0900Z  75  33015KT  20.7F  SNOW   16:1| 0.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041   10:1| 14.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.59  100|  0|  0
170315/1200Z  78  33014KT  18.4F  SNOW   15:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014   10:1| 14.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.60  100|  0|  0

IAD:

170314/0000Z  42  11005KT  34.4F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.050    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05   33|  0| 67
170314/0300Z  45  08009KT  30.5F  SNOW   11:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.265   11:1|  2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.32  100|  0|  0
170314/0600Z  48  04007KT  29.0F  SNOW   15:1| 7.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.491   13:1| 10.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170314/0900Z  51  36008KT  27.4F  SNOW   10:1| 3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.313   12:1| 13.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.12  100|  0|  0
170314/1200Z  54  34007KT  26.0F  SNOW   10:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.061   12:1| 13.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.18  100|  0|  0
170314/1500Z  57  35005KT  29.2F  SNOW   10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010   12:1| 13.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.19  100|  0|  0
170314/1800Z  60  VRB02KT  31.9F  SNOW   17:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026   12:1| 14.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.22  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170314/2100Z  63  VRB02KT  32.3F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.063   12:1| 14.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.28   88|  0| 12
170315/0000Z  66  19003KT  29.9F  SNOW    7:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.036   12:1| 14.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.32  100|  0|  0
170315/0300Z  69  30012KT  28.3F  SNOW   13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010   12:1| 14.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.33  100|  0|  0
170315/0600Z  72  33013KT  23.3F  SNOW   14:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047   12:1| 15.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.37  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170315/0900Z  75  33012KT  19.1F  SNOW   11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019   12:1| 15.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.39  100|  0|  0

BWI:

170314/0000Z  42  09016KT  34.8F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02   59|  0| 41
170314/0300Z  45  06018KT  30.6F  SNOW   13:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.254   13:1|  3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27  100|  0|  0
170314/0600Z  48  05021KT  31.4F  SNOW    9:1| 4.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.481   11:1|  7.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.75  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170314/0900Z  51  02019KT  32.1F  SNOW   17:1|11.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.687   14:1| 19.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.44  100|  0|  0
170314/1200Z  54  02016KT  31.2F  SNOW    6:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.196   13:1| 20.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.64  100|  0|  0
170314/1500Z  57  02014KT  30.3F  SNOW    7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016   13:1| 20.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.65  100|  0|  0
170314/1800Z  60  36007KT  32.1F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000   13:1| 20.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.65    0|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170314/2100Z  63  VRB01KT  32.1F  SNOW   20:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.064   13:1| 21.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.72  100|  0|  0
170315/0000Z  66  18003KT  31.2F  SNOW    9:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042   13:1| 22.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.76  100|  0|  0
170315/0300Z  69  VRB02KT  30.8F  SNOW   12:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.037   13:1| 22.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.80  100|  0|  0
170315/0600Z  72  34022KT  25.4F  SNOW   21:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.070   13:1| 24.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.87  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170315/0900Z  75  34022KT  22.2F  SNOW   18:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032   13:1| 24.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.90  100|  0|  0
170315/1200Z  78  34022KT  20.9F  SNOW   21:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011   13:1| 25.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.91  100|  0|  0

MRB:

170313/2100Z  39  14008KT  41.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
170314/0000Z  42  11006KT  32.4F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0
170314/0300Z  45  11007KT  29.9F  SNOW   13:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.106   13:1|  1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11  100|  0|  0
170314/0600Z  48  04004KT  27.6F  SNOW   12:1| 4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.335   12:1|  5.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.44  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170314/0900Z  51  01006KT  25.1F  SNOW   10:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.216   12:1|  7.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.66  100|  0|  0
170314/1200Z  54  36004KT  24.5F  SNOW   12:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.089   12:1|  8.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.75  100|  0|  0
170314/1500Z  57  02003KT  29.4F  SNOW   10:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019   12:1|  8.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.76  100|  0|  0
170314/1800Z  60  VRB01KT  32.6F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.026   12:1|  8.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.79   81|  0| 19
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170314/2100Z  63  13003KT  32.6F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041   12:1|  8.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83   81|  0| 19
170315/0000Z  66  28004KT  31.9F  SNOW   10:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.060   12:1|  9.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.89  100|  0|  0
170315/0300Z  69  31012KT  26.7F  SNOW   17:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021   12:1|  9.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.91  100|  0|  0
170315/0600Z  72  33009KT  20.0F  SNOW   11:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032   12:1| 10.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.94  100|  0|  0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
170315/0900Z  75  33010KT  17.5F  SNOW   11:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007   12:1| 10.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.95  100|  0|  0

[Negnao]

3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

FWIW, the last two runs of the SREFS have been terrible. Lost a lot of extreme members and mean has gone down. Highest is now under a foot and the mean is under 4 inches.

Qpf is good at DCA, but precip is wet, not white 

[PhineasC]

7 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

FWIW, the last two runs of the SREFS have been terrible. Lost a lot of extreme members and mean has gone down. Highest is now under a foot and the mean is under 4 inches.

It's worth exactly nothing.

[Bob Chill]

I noticed the euro dry bias data has been repeated several times. I don't doubt the data that @cae posted but the euro was actually much wetter compared to 12z yesterday. Unfortunately it was all to our NE but the run itself was in fact a qpf bomb.

I had a hard time last night trying to figure out what was so different in the mid and upper levels from other 0z guidance that caused the euro to be significantly less robust down here. Regardless, it was still very close to looking very similar to other guidance.  It was just weaker. A 999 slp off of OC was the weakest of all other guidance by a fair margin. 

Some of the runs we saw last night were fairly extreme with qpf pushing 2". With a strorm in the move like this one, getting 2" of qpf seems unlikely because it would mostly fall in 12 hours or less. That just doesn't happen very often. Especially without strong blocking, slow movement, or a full phase/capture.  

I think the nws has done an excellent job this morning for all areas and their forecasts all look really good. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Well, at least the 00z EPS ENS are good:

 

 

[mitchnick]

Nam completely loses the northern stream slp at 35 hrs. Should be better this time. 

[showmethesnow]

Interesting feature showing up on the 12k NAM. Besides the shortwave on the southern portion of the trough digging deeper we now see what looks to be another short wave developing even farther south and extending to a more pronounced low in the gulf.

[Eskimo Joe]

17 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That's actually really interesting. Is that just a BTV thing?

This is an experimental Decision Support Service (DSS) tool that is being developed at the NWS.  From what I have seen, this tool calculates things like road and population density and terrain against the forecasted snow amounts. Wind and snow ratio is also factored in.  Every time the NWS develops a test product they deploy it at several pilot offices and those offices ask for feedback from DOTs, OEMs, etc.  For example, PHI WFO was a test bed for the new NOAA Weather Radio voice around 2005.  Hope this helps.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Interesting feature showing up on the 12k NAM. Besides the shortwave on the southern portion of the trough digging deeper we now see what looks to be another short wave developing even farther south and extending to a more pronounced low in the gulf.

Noticed that as well...precip field looks kinda strange at 39 hours so far

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

Interesting feature showing up on the 12k NAM. Besides the shortwave on the southern portion of the trough digging deeper we now see what looks to be another short wave developing even farther south and extending to a more pronounced low in the gulf.

Saw that. Looking more and more like 2/6/10 vort map to these weenie eyes.

[showmethesnow]

We are seeing, IMO some fairly significant changes at 500mb with the shortwave running on the southern portions of the trough. What that all would mean in the long run would be anybodies guess.

[frd]

1 minute ago, PennQuakerGirl said:

And some pretty nasty wind gusts along the shore into Southern Delaware (I think that's Cape Henlopen?) -- DC and Baltimore 20-25 mph max

 

Beach erosion focused on by Mount Holly the morning discussion, going to be bad. As you mentioned Lewes, Rehoboth, DE, up into Cape May, the Wildwoods, and further North in New Jersey. .        

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, showmethesnow said:

We are seeing, IMO some fairly significant changes at 500mb with the shortwave running on the southern portions of the trough. What that all would mean in the long run would be anybodies guess.

well, it doesn't look like a positive affect...this run is slightly warmer and heavier precip looks delayed?

[Yeoman]

wow.. smoked at 12z

[pasnownut]

NAM at 42 has much more expansive precip blossoming.  Looks real nice to me.

Nut

 

[stormtracker]

although 48h is a crush panel..but the NAM is slower overall...like 8am and we're just in the middle of the storm?