Eskimo Joe Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: What do you mean miracle? Everything looks really good don't you think. No, actually. It's very concerning to see the EURO still be dry and warm. I was hoping to see it slide towards the GFS/UKMET/CMC camp but it didnt. To me, it's a huge red flag and I'm glad I jumped off the train yesterday. I was a fool to get invested in this event in the first place. If Zywts still posted here he would make the same case as me. The Euro is legendary for sniffing out the warm nose or surface temp concerns for DCA in situations like this. This time will be no different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: At least there is some serious cold in place. My dew point is 6. I'm really hoping it holds for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: ??? I think he means blizzard warnings, 30-40" of snow and "cats sleeping w dogs" by miracle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, wasnow215 said: I think he means blizzard warnings, 30-40" of snow and "cats sleeping w dogs" by miracle Got it, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Not sure if anyone knows who he is, but Joe Cioffi (NYC met) is saying the difference between the Euro and Canadian is the intensity. That's why the Canadian shows 18+ and Euro 8+. Anyone agree that it's really just an intensity thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 So the secret to a few more inches is intensity? I expect a new onslaught of popup ads and spam email telling me as much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 NOAA already throwing out totals in the descriptive forecast. This is for Frederick: Monday Night Snow, mainly after 8pm. Low around 29. East wind 7 to 9 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Not sure if anyone knows who he is, but Joe Cioffi (NYC met) is saying the difference between the Euro and Canadian is the intensity. That's why the Canadian shows 18+ and Euro 8+. Anyone agree that it's really just an intensity thing? The low pretty much gets its act together a little too slow for our area on the overnight Euro. Though we do get into the CCB that forms on the northwest side we are only into the beginning stages of it where as just to the north and east they get the full effects. Considering the other models show a quicker evolution of this feature, the Euro op run seemed a touch wonky and even it's own ensembles disagreed with it I would favor the quicker evolution of the CCB. Of course you can never completely discount the Euro though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 WFO snow amounts out thru Wed 8am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: Watch temps today...if it gets into mid upper 40s that would be a flag for me. Last night wasn't as cold as forecast but I'm sure clouds and wind had something to do with that. If tomorrow is in mid upper 40s as well....might be a little gulp over here My dewpoimt is 6. Surface temps don't matter as much as wet bulb. The antecedent airmass is plenty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 11 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: Not sure if anyone knows who he is, but Joe Cioffi (NYC met) is saying the difference between the Euro and Canadian is the intensity. That's why the Canadian shows 18+ and Euro 8+. Anyone agree that it's really just an intensity thing? Yes - PSU agreed with that last night. I do think cmc over amps, solution likely to be less than it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: No, actually. It's very concerning to see the EURO still be dry and warm. I was hoping to see it slide towards the GFS/UKMET/CMC camp but it didnt. To me, it's a huge red flag and I'm glad I jumped off the train yesterday. I was a fool to get invested in this event in the first place. If Zywts still posted here he would make the same case as me. The Euro is legendary for sniffing out the warm nose or surface temp concerns for DCA in situations like this. This time will be no different. You are a pro forecaster so I respect your position. Euro was dry but others identified it as outlier. I thought Zywts was Deck Pic...shows you what I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: WFO snow amounts out thru Wed 8am This looks a lot like the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, BristowWx said: You are a pro forecaster so I respect your position. Euro was dry but others identified it as outlier. I thought Zywts was Deck Pic...shows you what I know. Zywts is Deck Pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, PDIII said: This looks a lot like the euro. I think it's very reasonable for 36hrs or so out from start time. If models keep spitting out higher amounts today, expect WFO to slowly increase their guesses. We do this every storm, they never ever go out with the highest possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 22 minutes ago, wasnow215 said: I think he means blizzard warnings, 30-40" of snow and "cats sleeping w dogs" by miracle My line of work (emergency management) you can't enjoy 6-10" of snow. You'd in bed at 8pm to be up for the 4am call where they hem and haw about closing school and government "well its snowed 8 inches, but its only 4:30 am. Maybe the sun will come out at 6 and melt everything off." Then you're in work at 7 putting in a normal day while everyone else is off. The only time people like ERS and I can even slightly enjoy events are the big ones where you're cleaning up for a few days. We don't take decisions lightly....tens of thousands of dollars are lost each day schools or government are closed. So when we banter about "well the Euro and NAM are wrong, it'll be a big storm" folks like ERS and i roll out eyes on Facebook chat because we've seen these DC Fails time after time. This time will be no different no matter how much I wish it to be like the 00z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Is it still true that NAM has greater resolution on thermal profiles than the globals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, mappy said: I think it's very reasonable for 36hrs or so out from start time. If models keep spitting out higher amounts today, expect WFO to slowly increase their guesses. We do this every storm, they never ever go out with the highest possibility. I think its actually high for the DC folks and me considering the Euro. Obviously some of the other globals are in the mix over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: My line of work (emergency management) you can't enjoy 6-10" of snow. You'd in bed at 8on to be up for the 4am call where they hem and haw about closing school and government "well its snowed 8 inches, but its only 4:30 am. Maybe the sun will come out at 6 and melt everything off." Then you're in work at 7 putting in a normalday while everyone else is off. The only time people like ERS and I can even slightly enjoy events are the big ones where you're cleaning up for a few days. We don't take decisions lightly....tens of thousands of dollars are lost each day schools or government are closed. So when we banter about "well the Euro and NAM are wrong, it'll be a big storm" folks like ERS groan on Facebook chat because we've seen these DC Fails time after time. Yes, we know. Biblical storm or bust for you. I appreciate your thoughts, but can you take your disappointment into the banter thread? I don't want to silence you, but your concerns are only getting the weenies fired up and it's only 8am and I haven't finished my coffee yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, snjókoma said: I think its actually high for the DC folks and me considering the Euro. Obviously some of the other globals are in the mix over there. Well, good thing our NWS office doesn't just hug one model to make a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I just went through the NAMs on TT... they looked good to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, mappy said: Well, good thing our NWS office doesn't just hug one model to make a forecast. Definitely. On another note, Euro is a definite outlier on precipitation. Every other model, including the NAM this morning now has 1.4'"+ in DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricanegiants Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I am all in. I am concerned that the the surface low is so close to the southeast va border. I would hate to see the Low adjust inland and the temps tweek unfavorably. The cold air is there, though "the injection of cold air" is not necessarily A Wall to combat a powerful low pressure system in March. Decades living here---if you start out mixing in a March snow storm---you struggle mightily on getting that hard changeover. Here's an early morning toast to a rain/snow line pushing East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 QPF forecast from WPC (Mappy's snowfall map reminded me to go check their thoughts on precip totals). A good forecast considering the blend of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 28 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: My line of work (emergency management) you can't enjoy 6-10" of snow. You'd in bed at 8pm to be up for the 4am call where they hem and haw about closing school and government "well its snowed 8 inches, but its only 4:30 am. Maybe the sun will come out at 6 and melt everything off." Then you're in work at 7 putting in a normal day while everyone else is off. The only time people like ERS and I can even slightly enjoy events are the big ones where you're cleaning up for a few days. We don't take decisions lightly....tens of thousands of dollars are lost each day schools or government are closed. So when we banter about "well the Euro and NAM are wrong, it'll be a big storm" folks like ERS and i roll out eyes on Facebook chat because we've seen these DC Fails time after time. This time will be no different no matter how much I wish it to be like the 00z GFS. Trust me, we all roll our eyes too, but for much different reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, nj2va said: QPF forecast from WPC (Mappy's snowfall map reminded me to go check their thoughts on precip totals). A good forecast considering the blend of the models. This looks just fine and quite reasonable. I'm not freakin out over the Euro unless 12z goes seriously awry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 LWX snow prob maps are bullish... and just updated as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6z JMA is another big hit for the area with about 1.5"/all snow for DC. 6z ICON is about 1" QPF for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, nj2va said: 6z ICON is about 1" QPF for DC. That's a step down, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Remember all models now run an hour later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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