Cobalt Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6z GFS identical to 0z. Still depict 12" for D.C. So overall a great run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 GFS still good..even looked slightly colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Per LWX: "SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... All eyes continue to be on major winter storm set to impact the area Monday evening through Tuesday...as coastal low rapidly intensifies as it traverses northeastward along the eastern seaboard. Winter Storm Watch continues for much of the area. Allegany, Mineral, and Grant were added to the Watch. Tricky forecast continues...as transition line will likely wreak havoc with snow totals wherever it ultimately sets up. While some intermodel consistency has developed...intramodel spread (even within the same model family) continues to be extremely large (in some cases > 10 inches). Latest GEFS ensembles have cooled from earlier...with ptype largely snow across the DC/Balt corridor...and rain/snow mix across far S MD. ECMWF ensembles also continue to suggest a similar sharp gradient across S MD. Sweet spot continues to be west of I95 to I81 from northern VA up into Pennsylvania...as this area will likely be co-located with deformation zone and thus will experience the greatest QPF (likely all snow). Furthermore, elevation is higher across this area...which will help to further enhance snow totals. This area could receive more than a foot of snowfall for the entire event. Bufkit profiles continue to suggest primary period of extreme lift through the dendritic growth zone occurs during a 12-15 hour period late Monday through Tuesday morning. This is when snowfall rates could approach 1-2 inches per hour. While snow showers could continue through Tuesday night in wraparound precipitation...bulk of snow totals will occur from 00z-15z Tuesday. Our 10-50-90 snowfall products continue to reveal the large spread...as for DC/Balt 10th percentile is 2-4...50th percentile is 6-9...and 90th percentile is 11-15. Thus, it is imperative that interested parties continue to follow the forecast as changes are expected." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 minutes ago, Kleimax said: Per LWX: "SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... All eyes continue to be on major winter storm set to impact the area Monday evening through Tuesday...as coastal low rapidly intensifies as it traverses northeastward along the eastern seaboard. Winter Storm Watch continues for much of the area. Allegany, Mineral, and Grant were added to the Watch. Tricky forecast continues...as transition line will likely wreak havoc with snow totals wherever it ultimately sets up. While some intermodel consistency has developed...intramodel spread (even within the same model family) continues to be extremely large (in some cases > 10 inches). Latest GEFS ensembles have cooled from earlier...with ptype largely snow across the DC/Balt corridor...and rain/snow mix across far S MD. ECMWF ensembles also continue to suggest a similar sharp gradient across S MD. Sweet spot continues to be west of I95 to I81 from northern VA up into Pennsylvania...as this area will likely be co-located with deformation zone and thus will experience the greatest QPF (likely all snow). Furthermore, elevation is higher across this area...which will help to further enhance snow totals. This area could receive more than a foot of snowfall for the entire event. Bufkit profiles continue to suggest primary period of extreme lift through the dendritic growth zone occurs during a 12-15 hour period late Monday through Tuesday morning. This is when snowfall rates could approach 1-2 inches per hour. While snow showers could continue through Tuesday night in wraparound precipitation...bulk of snow totals will occur from 00z-15z Tuesday. Our 10-50-90 snowfall products continue to reveal the large spread...as for DC/Balt 10th percentile is 2-4...50th percentile is 6-9...and 90th percentile is 11-15. Thus, it is imperative that interested parties continue to follow the forecast as changes are expected." So you're telling me NW fairfax could be getting 12"+? Count me in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Wow looks like we pick up an additional 2-4 inches from the ULL that passes thru and keeps the snow around all day and into Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Monday Night 03/13 100% / 12+ in Snow in the evening will become heavy at times overnight. Low 31F. Winds ENE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 100%. A foot or more of snow expected. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, smokeybandit said: Monday Night 03/13 100% / 12+ in Snow in the evening will become heavy at times overnight. Low 31F. Winds ENE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 100%. A foot or more of snow expected. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph. What is that from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 wunderground.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 06Z GFS comes in a touch drier overall and draws back a touch on the western portion of the precip field. Of note it cuts down substantially on totals through Philly and Cent/northern NJ for those haters in the crowd. We are also seeing the low depicted coming in a touch slower and weaker as it tracks off of OC. Overall the changes were minor, both at the surface and 500mb, and would suggest maybe the GFS is honing in on a solution. Edit: Just glanced at the Kuchera snowfall map and had to laugh. Noticed that they have a max in my old stomping grounds of Catonsville of 3 foot with a high of 41 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, smokeybandit said: wunderground.com Where also? It doesn't show a users location on mobile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 western AA county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Watch temps today...if it gets into mid upper 40s that would be a flag for me. Last night wasn't as cold as forecast but I'm sure clouds and wind had something to do with that. If tomorrow is in mid upper 40s as well....might be a little gulp over here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 DCA: Euro has a 10 PM start with temperatures near 34. Surface temperatures hovering near 34 before dropping to 32/33 around sunrise. Moderate snow for several hours changing to sleet/rain perhaps between 3 and 6 AM and then back to snow again before ending. 0.85" of QPF during main portion of storm, which ends around 9AM. How much QPF lost to rain? Who knows but 0.2" is as good a guess as any. Skew T at 2 and 8 AM look ok but does show hint of a warm nose as storm is still getting its act together when it passes us; likely looks much worse at 5 AM when 850 temperature is 34ish. Snow showers possible Tuesday evening and Wednesday afternoon. Hopefully, we can (partially) toss this ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I know many will disagree with me but I find the EPS is still quite useful even at this range and with their lower resolutions. I find that quite often they can foretell possible adjustments forthcoming in the op runs especially when the ops are somewhat wishy washy. So to the point. I believe the EPS is arguing for an adjustment west of the lows track off of the MD/DEL shores. The ensemble members on the 12z EPS came in strongly for a westward shift as most were west of the low on the means. Of which in fact the 00Z op run did shift west. We now see the mean low on the 00z eps shifted west as wel. Looking at individual members of the 00z they once again somewhat suggest a further shift of the track westward tucking the low closer into the shore line. This is more noticeable moreso when you look when the low is off of Jersey. Edit: Another point that may suggest an adjustment westward is the fact that the higher resolution control is west of guidance as well bring the low to just off the MD/Del coast. I guess we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 If this is truly a classic setup for us WRT coastal low, pretty good bet to assume that DC proper may experience P-type issues at some point during the storm, and N/W stay all snow? That just seems the way it always works out regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 In case this has already been said I am sorry but if not great. WPC has tossed the euro because it was so different from its previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, PaEasternWX said: In case this has already been said I am sorry but if not great. WPC has tossed the euro because it was so different from its previous run. Nobody has said it but you can say it a million times. Great stuff. Seems like the 10"+ game is still in play in DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Euro and MAN are warm outliers. Watch this be the time the old E/E Rule works out...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 6 hours ago, mitchnick said: Speaking of which, boy, the Gulf of Mexico looks to be priming itself tonight. Quite a cluster gathering. http://www.marylandwx.com/radar-data/ So this seems to confirm what ROGER SMITH said yesterday about the potential in the GOM, right Mitch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 It's pretty tough to get all snow with a dynamic coastal low like this one. Nearly every case will see some form of mixing or even a changeover along and east of 95. Heavy precipitation also produces latent heat release. There will likely be a sharp cutoff with heavy snow accumulation and mixing/RS line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Can we put any weight into the control runs of the ensembles? Usually at this range it follows closely with the OP, but the 0z control has more QPF. Also keeps DC at or below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 IMO, 12z runs today are the last time we can use the ENS. We've just run out of time for a miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: IMO, 12z runs today are the last time we can use the ENS. We've just run out of time for a miracle. What miracle do we need? Everything looks fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: IMO, 12z runs today are the last time we can use the ENS. We've just run out of time for a miracle. What do you mean miracle? Everything looks really good don't you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: IMO, 12z runs today are the last time we can use the ENS. We've just run out of time for a miracle. ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 14 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: It's pretty tough to get all snow with a dynamic coastal low like this one. Nearly every case will see some form of mixing or even a changeover along and east of 95. Heavy precipitation also produces latent heat release. There will likely be a sharp cutoff with heavy snow accumulation and mixing/RS line. Did you write this morning's AFD? It's a good discussion and the gradient is mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 17 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: It's pretty tough to get all snow with a dynamic coastal low like this one. Nearly every case will see some form of mixing or even a changeover along and east of 95. Heavy precipitation also produces latent heat release. There will likely be a sharp cutoff with heavy snow accumulation and mixing/RS line. At least there is some serious cold in place. My dew point is 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 hours ago, cae said: This winter the Euro has had a dry bias for heavy events, and the Ukie / GGEM have a wet bias. That might explain some of what we've seen tonight. I mentioned this yesterday too. I think this could be at play with this storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Wonderdog said: ??? In March there is always a chance for things to go awry and sometimes it's not simulated well. Dynamic storm in a transitioning month. Always tricky for 95 and east/Mid Atlantic latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Did you write this morning's AFD? It's a good discussion and the gradient is mentioned. I transitioned to a national position late 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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