Ji Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 6:00 PM, BTRWx said: Someone with weatherbell please set us straight. Expand weatherbell is broken it seems. only out to 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 5:59 PM, kurtstack said: That middle finger might be a sign of lower rates the lower temps east probably in death bands. Expand That's my guess but can't confirm until the paying members let us know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EB89 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Well that is concerning. The Euro is showing the dry western edge like the GFS. F it. I will take 6 or 7 inches and love it in this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 6:04 PM, WxUSAF said: That's my guess but can't confirm until the paying members let us know. Expand What do you need me to pull up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman. Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 850s 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 5:48 PM, Amped said: There's more potential for a horrible bust here. The forecast is more and we're only 20 miles from mixing and the dryslot. Expand You'll like Bernie's video. http://www.accuweather.com/en/videos/expert-forecasts/snowstorm-tuesday-snow-amounts-over-2-feet/f4bzi5yte6o0cnlleinxd2ssq527igk4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 13, 2017 Author Share Posted March 13, 2017 Its actually not as bad as I thought based on the earlier commentary. The SV accumulation map has actually gotten better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 It's not a disaster but complicated over short distances. It's a DC QPF bomb (.9 in 6 hours) with cold surface between 6-12z but would probably be a driving sleet storm for a time. @ 12z surface freezing is literally running I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 WAA through 6z is .3-.4 for most everyone on the forum. QPF gradient between 6z-12z is tight and centered over the corridor region but out west has better temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I think the Euro is right along the lines of psuhoffman's call. Well done PSU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 6:13 PM, Bob Chill said: It's not a disaster but complicated over short distances. It's a DC QPF bomb (.9 in 6 hours) with cold surface between 6-12z but would probably be a driving sleet storm for a time. @ 12z surface freezing is literally running I95. Expand Would forecast offices add sleet accumulation to seasonal totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 6:13 PM, Bob Chill said: It's not a disaster but complicated over short distances. It's a DC QPF bomb (.9 in 6 hours) with cold surface between 6-12z but would probably be a driving sleet storm for a time. @ 12z surface freezing is literally running I95. Expand Surface freezing line running I95 is colder than most past runs of the Euro. That's a positive in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 6:14 PM, Bob Chill said: WAA through 6z is .3-.4 for most everyone on the forum. QPF gradient between 6z-12z is tight and centered over the corridor region but out west has better temps. Expand any wrap around? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 It's worse for 95 in terms of snow amounts, BUT it actually looks sorta like the Canadian and it wouldn't seem to take much to nudge that bit in Northwest MD/Southern PA a bit more southeast. Holding out hope on short-term models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 6:13 PM, Bob Chill said: It's not a disaster but complicated over short distances. It's a DC QPF bomb (.9 in 6 hours) with cold surface between 6-12z but would probably be a driving sleet storm for a time. @ 12z surface freezing is literally running I95. Expand Ian says it's the best euro run for us in awhile FWIW. 0.3-0.4" before 6z sounds good to me. How much after 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 6:16 PM, mitchnick said: any wrap around? Expand Here's the deform panel. Heavy precip would be out before temps get into the mid-upper 30s. It would be all snow. How much sticks depends on surface etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 16z HRRR is pretty awful... maybe an inch before we switch to sleet and then probably rain. 17z is maybe marginally better with the front end, still coming out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 This is not all snow. Driving sleet for a time for sure but very impressive totals for the corridor. I'm obviously happy with this panel. It's each man for himself on this one. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 6:21 PM, Bob Chill said: This is not all snow. Driving sleet for a time for sure but very impressive totals for the corridor. I'm obviously happy with this panel. It's each man for himself on this one. lol Expand bob, is that 32 line surface or 850 temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 6:21 PM, Bob Chill said: This is not all snow. Driving sleet for a time for sure but very impressive totals for the corridor. I'm obviously happy with this panel. It's each man for himself on this one. lol Expand I can see my house under that red dot somewhere <3 I said this earlier, but I'll take my risk with QPF, unless its driving rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 6:21 PM, Bob Chill said: This is not all snow. Driving sleet for a time for sure but very impressive totals for the corridor. I'm obviously happy with this panel. It's each man for himself on this one. lol Expand Populations centers would all score with that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 thanks for posting QPF, Bob. I gave up trying to get wxbell to work and trying to figure out whats going on IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 6:20 PM, snjókoma said: 16z HRRR is pretty awful... maybe an inch before we switch to sleet and then probably rain. 17z is maybe marginally better with the front end, still coming out. Expand The HRRR has been pretty consistent so far keeping the front end drier than most of the rest of the guidance. Less than 0.2" before the sleet line makes it to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 6:22 PM, snjókoma said: bob, is that 32 line surface or 850 temps? Expand Surface. Here's the 850s. Everyone can have some fun making sense of this panel. After taking a closer look it looks like the QPF bomb along the corridor is little snow at all based on the mids but I'm sorta confused with this panel: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 6:26 PM, Bob Chill said: Surface. Here's the 850s. Everyone can have some fun making sense of this panel. After taking a closer look it looks like the QPF bomb along the corridor is little snow at all based on the mids but I'm sorta confused with this panel: Expand yikes... sandstorm for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 6:26 PM, Bob Chill said: Surface. Here's the 850s. Everyone can have some fun making sense of this panel. After taking a closer look it looks like the QPF bomb along the corridor is little snow at all based on the mids but I'm sorta confused with this panel: Expand Mega band over the bay manufacturing cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 On 3/13/2017 at 6:26 PM, Bob Chill said: Surface. Here's the 850s. Everyone can have some fun making sense of this panel. After taking a closer look it looks like the QPF bomb along the corridor is little snow at all based on the mids but I'm sorta confused with this panel: Expand another map http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/fx/gen-fxctr.cgi?re=at&id=&zoom=.6&ti=UTC&pg=web&ge=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf&le=850&va=temp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=h24&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=&le=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 So Bob's second map is after 6Z. Only .4 for my area. But we get .4 before that I think. .8 for the event should get me close to double digits. I would take that in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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