BTRWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 8:41 PM, nj2va said: Seems that both parallel NAMs are better than their operational counterparts. Expand That does seem to have been the trend I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I think that any meso that deviates far from the globals with precip distribution are more likely getting something wrong early than being right. I'm not discounting anything but seeing the big western qpf max goes against all global guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Seems like run after run it's 6-10", dicey around 95, and somebody jackpots (ranging from NVA, DC NW, Central PA, South Jersey, NYC, etc) At some point it seems like the models just won't be able to resolve where that jackpot is and it will be best left to the nowcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 8:43 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: You can make that call yet Expand I don't mean performance wise, I meant better in terms of precip distribution/snowfall amounts for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I cant believe the way these precip maxes are jumping around. I mean Philly goes from 28 inches to 9 inches in one run. We are 24 hours or so from game time. Nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 So do we have a para NAM snowfall map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeg0305 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 7:25 PM, Fozz said: Towson's highest points are higher than Parkton's lowest points, but much of Parkton is 600'+.[/I live in Parkton and on topo maps we sit at almost 800ft. So not so sure that Towson sits higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 8:45 PM, Bob Chill said: I think that any meso that deviates far from the globals with precip distribution are more likely getting something wrong early than being right. I'm not discounting anything but seeing the big western qpf max goes against all global guidance. Expand And it's not just a little west. It's WAY west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 8:47 PM, yoda said: So do we have a para NAM snowfall map? Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 8:46 PM, nj2va said: I don't mean performance wise, I meant better in terms of precip distribution/snowfall amounts for DC. Expand True. More consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 8:49 PM, AmericanWxFreak said: Expand I meant the snow map for the maps you were posting above at hrs 39 and 42 and 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 8:39 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Looks more like the gfs, wet across the board. As far as I could tell 850's not a problem. Expand I'd take that and run. Just saw the maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 8:45 PM, Bob Chill said: I think that any meso that deviates far from the globals with precip distribution are more likely getting something wrong early than being right. I'm not discounting anything but seeing the big western qpf max goes against all global guidance. Expand at what point would you start to weigh the mezzo's against globals? Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Yes, really great para nam run. Its 36 at the surface in this panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 8:47 PM, yoda said: So do we have a para NAM snowfall map? Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 8:42 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: And that looks very suspect on snow totals considering how wet it is.Yea that is terrible Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The NAM delays phasing until over our area and just north of 40 N. We want it slightly south of us for best lift. Best lifting at 700 mb is due upslope around Johnstown, PA and then SLE with phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 8:52 PM, snjókoma said: Yes, really great para nam run. Its 36 at the surface in this panel. Expand That map is horse****. 850's are below freezing and the 32 surface line looks like it runs through DC. Besides, temps crash soon after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 8:56 PM, Ji said: Yea that is terrible Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Expand Just to show my pals from down under that I like them looky who just came to your party! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snjókoma Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 9:01 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: That map is horse****. 850's are below freezing and the 32 surface line looks like it runs through DC. Besides, temps crash soon after. Expand But you're right in that temps crash soon after and DC gets in the heavy stuff... looks like 2-5" maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 how can one model shows 32 inches IN NE PA(Euro) and another 7(GFS=Para) one day before the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 9:04 PM, Chase said: Good reminder of what 6z showed. Expand That is the parallel GFS that has not been running for days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 18Z RGEM is better for everybody. Still some mixing in DC but better. It is a crush job out here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I think RGEM is okay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 RGEM looks better than 12z? Still not ideal. DC turns to zr for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdwx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 8:51 PM, stormtracker said: I'd take that and run. Just saw the maps Expand lol, Ill take 4 to 6in after this BS Winter. If BWI can get 10in that will be first time since the 60's we had 4 consecutive years of double digit snowfall totals in any one month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Where are you guys getting the RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 9:02 PM, pasnownut said: Just to show my pals from down under that I like them looky who just came to your party! Expand About time! Ttytyty! The gfs para is ideal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I don't know if it's been mentioned but the 12z NMM and especially the ARW smoke us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The Canadian website has some of the heavy stuff in the RGEM falling as FRZA. Can anyone check if there is a warm layer? Seems strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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