frd Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 4:46 PM, Buddy1987 said: Just based off that map alone, that looks precariously close to you guys in dc and the guys on 95 or am I wrong? Expand Not good, too close, too warm , winds off the Atlantic , etc. Surprised by this, as the EPS earlier was more offshore. As was the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 4:50 PM, yoda said: Not quite sure what to make of the 12z UKIE... snow to rain to snow? Expand Yea, it would still dump snow but there's going to be a mix period for sure. Looks like surface freezing presses back towards fdk/jyo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 4:51 PM, Bob Chill said: Yea, it would still dump snow but there's going to be a mix period for sure. Looks like surface freezing presses back towards fdk/jyo Expand We can still do snow with that if its 33 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 4:50 PM, osfan24 said: Ukie looks just like the CMC to me. Almost identical. Expand Does the CMC mix for I-95? Hard to tell from the trop tidbits maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 4:51 PM, Bob Chill said: Yea, it would still dump snow but there's going to be a mix period for sure. Looks like surface freezing presses back towards fdk/jyo Expand Track wobble ukie is always the left model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 4:52 PM, yoda said: We can still do snow with that if its 33 here Expand It's west of the cmc. Not by a lot but enough. Imho- there no way dc and close burbs don't get a period of rain with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Ukie is a bit odd in that it's actually on the Delmarva but then seems to slide northeast from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 4:53 PM, hosj III said: Does the CMC mix for I-95? Hard to tell from the trop tidbits maps Expand I think so. It may be an issue with the algorithm though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Is this just run to run variance on a complex, dynamic storm or are there new 'discoveries' the models keep making? I mean all the components are on-shore and being sampled at this point, so whats with the big run-to-run changes this late in the game? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 4:55 PM, caviman2201 said: Is this just run to run variance on a complex, dynamic storm or are there new 'discoveries' the models keep making? I mean all the components are on-shore and being sampled at this point, so whats with the big run-to-run changes this late in the game? Expand The changes aren't big. These models cover the globe. Slp moving 75 miles one way or the other is a very small change. It just seems big because of the affect of sensible wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Wobbles, that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 4:55 PM, caviman2201 said: Is this just run to run variance on a complex, dynamic storm or are there new 'discoveries' the models keep making? I mean all the components are on-shore and being sampled at this point, so whats with the big run-to-run changes this late in the game? Expand I know they are giving the American models extra data for this storm (dropsondes I think), not sure about the European ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 If the Ukie track verified I would most likely mix even out here. The GEM actually looks very similar to NAM as far as the heaviest banding goes. But like others have said we wont have a idea on that for another 18 hours or so. Regardless. All of the models except the Ukie have a very favorable track for all of us in this subforum. I am feeling very good about this storm now as opposed to being fringed all day yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Not worried about the UKMET with the Euro being on the eastern end of the envelope. I don't trust the UKMET surface depictions too much. It could easily go wide right next run. Just a wobble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Is the parallel GFS broken or something? Or did it switch over to the operational and I missed it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On my phone, but the meteogram for the UKMET doesn't look like a disaster like the map implies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 12z UKMET is mega wet, over 2" QPF, DC is ~34 for a lot of the storm, but 850s are warm too, it's probably a mega hit west/north of the Fall Line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 4:59 PM, AlaskaETC said: On my phone, but the meteogram for the UKMET doesn't look like a disaster like the map implies Expand It's a cold airmass and it comes at night. People are underestimating it I think. Night in March is the same as night in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 5:00 PM, PennQuakerGirl said: Could be that it's an hour later like most other models -- though that's probably not the thing to which you're referring. Expand Hasn't run since Wednesday from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 5:00 PM, NinjaWarrior2 said: 12z UKMET is mega wet, over 2" QPF, DC is ~34 for a lot of the storm, but 850s are warm too, it's probably a mega hit west/north of the Fall Line Expand 850s sit right around zero... they arent warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 5:02 PM, yoda said: 850s sit right around zero... they arent warm Expand Starting to sound like the UKIE is a smash hit... Of course it's gonna mix at some point but we might as well go big with precip if we can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Sheesh if we can stay snow with the UKMET depiction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 5:03 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Starting to sound like the UKIE is a smash hit... Of course it's gonna mix at some point but we might as well go big with precip if we can. Expand This is the psuhoffman storm. Not sure where he is, but a bomb like this is what he wanted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 How can 850s be that cold with the L that close? Crazy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 5:03 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Starting to sound like the UKIE is a smash hit... Of course it's gonna mix at some point but we might as well go big with precip if we can. Expand Bob is right, there probably is mix along the I-95 corridor at that time... but its not like the 850s are super warm at all as they are like 0/-1... we can still accumulate at 34 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 5:04 PM, caviman2201 said: How can 850s be that cold with the L that close? Crazy... Expand The low is bombing and drawing in cold air... at least thats what I think is happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 A lot of times, the warm layer (if there is one) is around 800mb in these situations. 850-950mb might be cold again, with the surface around freezing, but it's a sleet sounding. If UKMET is over the Delmarva, got to imagine most places mix to sleet at least. But I wouldn't call all these differences "a lack of consensus". These are all within a very reasonable range of spread for 36-48 hours. We're talking like 50-75 miles here. But, that's the difference between all snow for the cities and snow-mix-snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 5:03 PM, WxWatcher007 said: Surface is above freezing, but not by much. We might be able to withstand that with a hellacious thump but I don't like relying on that. Expand 33/34 at the sfc could still be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 5:04 PM, yoda said: Bob is right, there probably is mix along the I-95 corridor at that time... but its not like the 850s are super warm at all as they are like 0/-1... we can still accumulate at 34 degrees Expand It would be puking snow at 2-3 inches an hour. 33 degrees would be fine. Maybe some IP mixed in at the peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Has anyone done some wind analysis? What are the thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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