lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Later in period I think once low is east of Boston wind crank. Plus that map is in knots. Yeah even at KROC you might see gust to 34 kts which is 39 mph.... blizzard conditions is heavy snow falling with visibility below 1/4 mile for 3 straight hours with winds SUSTAINED or FREQUENTLY GUSTING AT 35mph or greater... Tim, enjoy this one for what it is. It will not be a blizzard in W/CNY but it will still be a great storm none the less, especially in a season that's been so lackluster synoptically so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Why is this so far fetched idea. Happened couple years ago in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 For lakeshore counties at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Sref consistent roc 21 inch mean. But the spread has narrowed. Min of 7 high of 37 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 12, 2017 Author Share Posted March 12, 2017 88 and sunny here. 5 tequilla shots in. Keep me updated felllas! Still looks good for decent deformation snows with lake enhancement. Hot spot should be Rochester IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Looks like being in Schenectady/Niskayuna for the storm may work out for me for a change. I'd say a higher probability of 12-18" there than here in CNY as the Cap District will be closer to the prime action. I don't think its a downsloping rob job for the HV either, which is one of the usual bugaboos for that area. And not that i think CNY will miss out on 12-18", just thinking from a "what can go wrong" standpoint, higher chances of f*ckery somewhere in CNY/WNY than ENY. I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 88 and sunny here. 5 tequilla shots in. Keep me updated felllas! Still looks good for decent deformation snows with lake enhancement. Hot spot should be Rochester IMO. I so wish I was there instead of here!! Enjoy yourself and dont concern yourself with this nuisance event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Looks like being in Schenectady/Niskayuna for the storm may work out for me for a change. I'd say a higher probability of 12-18" there than here in CNY as the Cap District will be closer to the prime action. I don't think its a downsloping rob job for the HV either, which is one of the usual bugaboos for that area. And not that i think CNY will miss out on 12-18", just thinking from a "what can go wrong" standpoint, higher chances of f*ckery somewhere in CNY/WNY than ENY. I think. Yeah but with a screaming flow out of the East, there may very well be areas that get downsloped somewhere in the HRV but I hope not where you are, lol! Maybe Stash knows the area better since hes been there for yrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Albany NY 413 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017 CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ038>040-047>054-058>061-063>066-082- 130415- /O.UPG.KALY.WS.A.0003.170314T0400Z-170316T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KALY.WS.W.0003.170314T0400Z-170316T0000Z/ Northern Litchfield-Southern Litchfield-Northern Berkshire- Southern Berkshire-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-Montgomery- Schoharie-Western Schenectady-Eastern Schenectady- Southern Saratoga-Western Albany-Eastern Albany- Western Rensselaer-Eastern Rensselaer-Western Greene- Eastern Greene-Western Columbia-Eastern Columbia-Western Ulster- Eastern Ulster-Western Dutchess-Eastern Dutchess-Northern Fulton- Including the cities of Torrington, Oakville, Gaylordsville, New Milford, Terryville, Thomaston, Dalton, Hancock, Pittsfield, Florida, North Adams, Sandisfield, Great Barrington, South Egremont, Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk, Frankfort, Dolgeville, Gloversville, Johnstown, Amsterdam, Cobleskill, Breakabeen, Gilboa, Livingstonville, Middleburgh, North Blenheim, Jefferson, Mariaville, Delanson, Duanesburg, Schenectady, Rotterdam, Burnt Hills, Ballston Spa, Mechanicville, Clifton Park, Waterford, Westerlo, Altamont, Berne, Knox, Preston Hollow, Albany, Troy, Berlin, Eagle Bridge, Hoosick Falls, Stephentown, Hunter, Tannersville, Windham, Prattsville, Catskill, Coxsackie, Athens, Cairo, Jefferson Heights, Hudson, New Lebanon, Ellenville, Woodstock, West Hurley, West Shokan, Kerhonkson, Napanoch, Sundown, Kingston, New Paltz, Poughkeepsie, Beacon, Arlington, Pawling, Wingdale, Dover Plains, Millbrook, Stanfordville, Pine Plains, Amenia, and Caroga Lake 413 PM EDT Sun Mar 12 2017 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... The National Weather Service in Albany has issued a Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow, which is in effect from midnight Monday night to 8 PM EDT Wednesday. The Winter Storm Watch is no longer in effect. * LOCATIONS...Litchfield Hills of Connecticut, the Berkshires of Massachusetts, and the Mohawk Valley, northern Fulton County, Greater Capital Region, Mid Hudson Valley, Taconics, and eastern Catskills of New York. * HAZARD TYPES...Heavy snowfall. * Accumulations...Snow accumulation of 10 to 18 inches. * TIMING...Snowfall will spread southwest to northeast across the warning area from a few hours after midnight Monday night to just before the morning rush hour Tuesday morning. Snow will become heavy during the day Tuesday before diminishing Tuesday night. Lighter snowfall may linger Tuesday night into Wednesday. * IMPACTS...Heavy snowfall will result in dangerous travel conditions. Brisk conditions will result in areas of blowing and drifting snow. * Winds...North 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. * Visibilities...Less than one mile, occasionally a quarter mile or less on Tuesday. * Temperatures...Mainly in the 20s Tuesday and Wednesday, falling into the teens Tuesday night. * Snowfall rates...One to three inches per hour is likely at times Tuesday. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Warning for heavy snow means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Significant amounts of snow are forecast that will make travel dangerous. Only travel in an emergency. If you must travel...keep an extra flashlight... food...and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Nam looks wetter farther west out to 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, tim123 said: Nam looks wetter farther west out to 36. Looks like more phasing at H5 But the NAM jumps around run to run so who really knows.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 NAM not looking good for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: Yeah but with a screaming flow out of the East, there may very well be areas that get downsloped somewhere in the HRV but I hope not where you are, lol! Maybe Stash knows the area better since hes been there for yrs. I think winds, sfc and 850 are more NE'erly...where the HRV gets shafted with significant downsloping precip mins are more in the more freakish high speed due easterly wind flows, such as in a stalled long duration nor'easter. For the average nor'easter, which this will be...not so much, although elevated areas of course do better than the valley. I saw several nice nor'easter dumps living in Albany northern burbs when i was there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 WOW, wtf, might as well drop watch's, lol. I wouldn't add much weight to the 18Z NAM but who knows at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, phoenixny said: NAM not looking good for us. meh, its an off hour run. I try to ignore those unless i'm bored. Tonight's 00Z should be more instructive as far as model trends, if any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 NAM goes southeast at 45 then northeast? SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I think this run is off its like it's missing data. Snow just pops in and out a few frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Just now, Syrmax said: meh, its an off hour run. I try to ignore those unless i'm bored. Tonight's 00Z should be more instructive as far as model trends, if any. I have to get off the computer! Hope you get blitzed out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The 4K nest and 3K parallel nest are both farther west than the 12K NAM FWIW... Just another wonky NAM run to put us on edge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 hour ago, tim123 said: Why is this so far fetched idea. Happened couple years ago in March. And it didn't verify across the area. Eastern WFOs hand out blizzard warnings like the Pope hands out wafers. BUF is very sparing, and uses them only for truly dangerous situations. This ain't one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Nam 4 km and 3 km really fire up the lake at end of run. 4 km has almost a inch qpf in roch at hour 60 with more to come for about 24 hours after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: We all better hope the GFS is in LA LA Land, cause its straight ugly! Maybe, it'll be like the Oscars and we'll think the GFS is going to win with its La La Land solution...until it's suddenly announced that it was wrong and we all start dancing in the "moonlight" as the Euro scores the coup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 This would hurt... the NAM and GFS now definitely have me a little concerned we could certainly see quite an underperforming storm considering what our headlines say (7-14" or 8-16") ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, WNash said: And it didn't verify across the area. Eastern WFOs hand out blizzard warnings like the Pope hands out wafers. BUF is very sparing, and uses them only for truly dangerous situations. This ain't one of them. Definitely no where near Blizzard warning criteria but I just cant understand the difficulty of this event, for the models, as a whole. I bet the SREF's change quite a bit with that Nam run. I figured with all the pieces on the board, the models would have a clue but apparently not. Just looked at the 700-850-925 on NAM and all are perfect for a sizeable storn system but on the model all the precip is to the East of the SLP which just does not make much sense. When I was in Met school, we were told, if your positioned to the NW of a storm system, you'll do well, so I'm gonna ignore the precip garbage for now and stick to 6-10" area wide for a 36hr event is not at all interesting but it'll feel like Winter anyway, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Its quite comical how every system we've dealt with this yr have not went our way, and if they did, it was to warm for snow and it rained. We finally get the cold, a nicely placed HP system, a phasing of 2 streams to our West and it still manages to go to our East, lol. Staten Island doesn't even look good on the Nam as it shows a foot. Not drivin 4 hrs for a footer when we'll prolly get that in 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 18 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: This would hurt... the NAM and GFS now definitely have me a little concerned we could certainly see quite an underperforming storm considering what our headlines say (7-14" or 8-16") ... 15z SREF plumes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Snow hits the NYS border and decides to go just East of the Mohawk Valley and hits the Capitol region on NE, Nice! Thats a wicked crotch punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: 15z SREF plumes.. Yes again, the SREF are always overdone, and this was from before the 18z models came out (NAM). Garuntee the 21z SREF will drop substantially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 SREF's still look good but a 5"-43" spread is laughable with a system that should commence within 36hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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