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Upstate/Eastern New York

BuffaloWeather

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ayuud11

ayuud11

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, WesterlyWx said:

So it's pretty much everything against the GFS... I'd still go with 5-10" across most of upstate with 10-15" across the south shore of L.O. and from BGM to Albany. 

KBUF - 7" 

KROC - 12"

KSYR - 10"

KART - 7"

KBGM - 15"

KALB - 17"

Here is my thinking..

KBUF - 12" 

KROC - 22"

KSYR - 14"

KART - 12"

KBGM - 15"

KALB - 17"

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said:

It looks like the Kuchera method is definitely the way to go due to Ratios which will be high!

Ratios will be higher due to the cold and deep layer moisture in the DGZ. However the Kuchie algorithm is certainly overdone. If you seriously think people in the Catskills are getting 35" and the lumberjacks in the Whites of NH are gonna see 40"+ think again. I do think 15:1 ratios would be a pretty good estimate to use at this time. With QPF from BUF to SYR around 1-1.5" QPF a widespread 12"-18" looks likely on the Euro Verbatim...

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phoenixny

phoenixny

Posted
Posted 
Buffalo upgrading all to Warnings except North Country. 12 to 18 south of Lake Ontario


.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...

Our attention during the first 48 hours of this period will be squarely
on a complex winter storm that will produce some significant impacts
on our region. On the synoptic scale...a strong mid-level trough will
drop southeastward from central Canada and interact with an initially
separate strong shortwave lifting northeastward from the Tennessee
Valley...with all available guidance continuing to suggest that the
main mid level trough will interact with and eventually absorb this
latter feature into the eastern part of its circulation. At the surface...
all of this will translate into an initial primary low over the Ohio
Valley lifting into western Pennsylvania and weakening Monday night and
early Tuesday...while transferring its energy to a rapidly developing
Nor`easter that will track northeastward just offshore of the Mid
Atlantic and New England coastlines Tuesday and Wednesday.

Out in advance of this system...its attendant warm air advection regime
will spread an initial round of widespread light to moderate snow across
the region Monday night and Tuesday...which for most areas should result
in a general 3 to 6 inches of accumulation...with the greatest accums
from this likely to lie across areas south of Lake Ontario...which will
lie closer to weakening primary low as well as the developing coastal
system. Then as we progress through later Tuesday afternoon and night...
our region will come more under the influence of the broadening region
of wraparound snow attendant to the strengthening Nor`easter...with
lake enhancement also developing south of the lakes as a colder and
increasingly well-aligned northerly flow develops across our region...
and takes advantage of the moisture-rich environment that will be in
place. The wraparound and lake enhanced snows will then persist into
Wednesday morning...before gradually diminishing from west to east
through the rest of Wednesday as the coastal low lifts out into the
Canadian Maritimes...and its attendant field of deeper wraparound
moisture and lift recedes off to the east.

With the 12z/12 guidance suite continuing to slowly come into better
agreement on the track and timing of this system...it is appearing
increasingly likely that areas south of Lake Ontario will receive
a general 8-12" of total accumulation out of this system between
Monday night and Wednesday...with lake enhancement likely boosting
totals up into the 12-18" range across areas immediately south and
southeast of Lake Ontario. Given both this and the likelihood of
additional blowing and drifting snow as the event unfolds...at this
point we feel the projected impacts justify an upgrade of the existing
Winter Storm Watches to Winter Storm Warnings for all areas south of
Lake Ontario. Meanwhile across the North Country...a greater degree of
uncertainty still exists with respect to potential snowfall amounts...
with this uncertainty enough to preclude an upgrade there for now.
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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Pretty wild reading thru this thread. We have German models, some guy named Kuchera, a 2 inch passing snow shower on GFS, 40 inch lumberjacks, and a building consensus for a warning level snows for all. Good stuff...

This is what happens for the first area wide possible warning snowfall of the season.... in the middle of March... NWS just upgraded the Watches to Warnings... 7-14" for the BUF area (N/S Erie, Wyoming, Genesee),... 8-16" along south shore (Niagara, Orleans, Monroe)

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