BuffaloWeather Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 http://climate.cod.edu/data/nexrad/animations/codnexlab.NEXRAD.BUF.N0Q.20170501.156.024ani.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 Storms are going to be absolutely flying tomorrow in this area. Consensus on a 700 mb jet of 60-80 kts positioning itself over W/Central PA and W NY through the afternoon. I can't imagine 75/66 at IDI at 02z is all that common in this region with a system of this intensity waiting to shift NE, especially with a lack of an organized MCS to the west. That corridor of backing low level flow showing up on the higher res guidance is certainly intriguing with the strength of the H925-H85 flow being forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017050100&fh=1 That line looks insane at 21Z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 I'll say at least 1 tornado touches down in Upstate NY tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 If things clear out in am chance for mod risk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 29 minutes ago, tim123 said: If things clear out in am chance for mod risk? It's possible if we can get some rogue cells. Most models keep the storms linear. It's tough to get a Mod risk with Linear storms unless a large derecho is expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Need to get a few storms ahead of squall line.. whatever does develop will be hauling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 I'm more looking forward to the 50s all week (40s on wed) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 New thread for severe tomorrow and at 57 pages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Can someone please inform the atmosphere that Buffalo isn't Bangladesh? Wave after wave of monsoonal rains having been moving up Lake Erie since yesterday, with the most impressive one yet on our doorstep. This after a record 6.38 inches of rain in April. Seriously, enough already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted May 1, 2017 Share Posted May 1, 2017 Nasty... Severe Thunderstorm Warning Severe Thunderstorm Warning NYC009-013-029-012000- /O.NEW.KBUF.SV.W.0006.170501T1906Z-170501T2000Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Buffalo NY 306 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017 The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Western Cattaraugus County in western New York... Southern Erie County in western New York... Chautauqua County in western New York... * Until 400 PM EDT. * At 306 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Lake Erie State Park to near Lottsville, moving northeast at 75 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. * Locations impacted include... Jamestown, Dunkirk, Fredonia, Hamburg, East Aurora, Salamanca, Allegany State Park and Evans. This includes the following highways... Interstate 90 between exits 59 and 57A. Interstate 86 between exits 8 and 21. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... These are potentially deadly storms. Seek shelter in an interior room on the lowest floor of a well-built structure. Abandon vehicles in search of a more substantial permanent structure. Stay away from windows. Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for western New York. LAT...LON 4200 7940 4246 7948 4248 7947 4253 7939 4260 7919 4270 7910 4279 7849 4200 7871 TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 223DEG 65KT 4238 7950 4196 7945 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL...<.75IN WIND...70MPH $$ Hitchcock Severe Thunderstorm Warning Severe Thunderstorm Warning NYC029-063-012000- /O.NEW.KBUF.SV.W.0005.170501T1900Z-170501T2000Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Buffalo NY 300 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017 The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern Erie County in western New York... Niagara County in western New York... * Until 400 PM EDT. * At 300 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles west of Fort Niagara State Park to near Dunkirk, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Buffalo, Cheektowaga, Niagara Falls, West Seneca, North Tonawanda, Clarence, Lockport and Lackawanna. This includes Interstate 90 between exits 57 and 49. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for western New York. LAT...LON 4273 7908 4280 7892 4284 7893 4291 7890 4295 7892 4300 7902 4306 7900 4308 7908 4315 7904 4325 7906 4330 7909 4340 7864 4341 7845 4277 7849 4269 7910 TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 232DEG 49KT 4325 7918 4257 7934 HAIL...<.75IN WIND...60MPH $$ HITCHCOCK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted May 1, 2017 Author Share Posted May 1, 2017 8 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Nasty... Severe Thunderstorm Warning Severe Thunderstorm Warning NYC009-013-029-012000- /O.NEW.KBUF.SV.W.0006.170501T1906Z-170501T2000Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Buffalo NY 306 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017 The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Western Cattaraugus County in western New York... Southern Erie County in western New York... Chautauqua County in western New York... * Until 400 PM EDT. * At 306 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Lake Erie State Park to near Lottsville, moving northeast at 75 mph. HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. * Locations impacted include... Jamestown, Dunkirk, Fredonia, Hamburg, East Aurora, Salamanca, Allegany State Park and Evans. This includes the following highways... Interstate 90 between exits 59 and 57A. Interstate 86 between exits 8 and 21. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... These are potentially deadly storms. Seek shelter in an interior room on the lowest floor of a well-built structure. Abandon vehicles in search of a more substantial permanent structure. Stay away from windows. Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for western New York. LAT...LON 4200 7940 4246 7948 4248 7947 4253 7939 4260 7919 4270 7910 4279 7849 4200 7871 TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 223DEG 65KT 4238 7950 4196 7945 TORNADO...POSSIBLE HAIL...<.75IN WIND...70MPH $$ Hitchcock Severe Thunderstorm Warning Severe Thunderstorm Warning NYC029-063-012000- /O.NEW.KBUF.SV.W.0005.170501T1900Z-170501T2000Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Buffalo NY 300 PM EDT MON MAY 1 2017 The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Northern Erie County in western New York... Niagara County in western New York... * Until 400 PM EDT. * At 300 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles west of Fort Niagara State Park to near Dunkirk, moving northeast at 55 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Buffalo, Cheektowaga, Niagara Falls, West Seneca, North Tonawanda, Clarence, Lockport and Lackawanna. This includes Interstate 90 between exits 57 and 49. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for western New York. LAT...LON 4273 7908 4280 7892 4284 7893 4291 7890 4295 7892 4300 7902 4306 7900 4308 7908 4315 7904 4325 7906 4330 7909 4340 7864 4341 7845 4277 7849 4269 7910 TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 232DEG 49KT 4325 7918 4257 7934 HAIL...<.75IN WIND...60MPH $$ HITCHCOCK There is new thread talking about the severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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