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Upstate/Eastern New York


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12 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Temps @850 get down to -6, that's marginal, especially in April.

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Definitely not totally true. Parts of New England just had a snowstorm last week with 850s of 0 to -1C. All depends on how cold the whole column is. If it's at -1C from 850 down to the surface you snow, unless there's a warm layer above 850...

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Definitely not totally true. Parts of New England just had a snowstorm last week with 850s of 0 to -1C. All depends on how cold the whole column is. If it's at -1C from 850 down to the surface you snow, unless there's a warm layer above 850...


Yeah, I must have forgotten about all of that when I left Met school 10 yrs ago, lol.

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We just saw some snow last week with 850's barely below freezing, surface at 33-34 and light precip, W Fulton reported just under an inch of snow ..Almost exactly 1 year ago we seen 8" with a good chunk falling during the daylight hours, anything is possible..I'm personally just rooting for 1/4" to have a nice round number..

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This what we root for:

This being an anomalous event with a tricky forecast, the event will
be closely watched for any possible expansion of Winter Weather
Advisories or even an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning if QPF and
SLRs are higher due to dynamic and evaporational cooling if the low
deepens further than current model guidance and rain changes over sooner
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I'm in Boston attm but that looks like a lot o' rain today for CNY, WNY.  I have a feeling a bit more snow will fall than forecast esp in the hills. One last gasp till October?


I sure hope so. So sick of extending Winter into Spring while not seeing much Winter at all.

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Not for nothing, BGM is trailing SYR by just half an inch for 1st place in the 5 city race for total snowfall. From that stand point, would like to see another inch or 2 as BGM has not won since 1982-83. The terrain advantage and time of year may still allow for it to happen.

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Not for nothing, BGM is trailing SYR by just half an inch for 1st place in the 5 city race for total snowfall. From that stand point, would like to see another inch or 2 as BGM has not won since 1982-83. The terrain advantage and time of year may still allow for it to happen.


I hope you guys do win, sincerely, but if we manage to get anything tonight, which I'm definitely not expecting, but anything can and will happen so let's see what happens. It looks to me like this thing got going a bit quicker and it's moving right up the HRV! Man what I would of given, to have had this track, with the one that crushed the whole region. However, it was still a fantastic system, but your elevation, can and probably will give you an upper hand so once again, good luck!

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30 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:


I hope you guys do win, sincerely, but if we manage to get anything tonight, which I'm definitely not expecting, but anything can and will happen so let's see what happens. It looks to me like this thing got going a bit quicker and it's moving right up the HRV! Man what I would of given, to have had this track, with the one that crushed the whole region. However, it was still a fantastic system, but your elevation, can and probably will give you an upper hand so once again, good luck!

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Yes looks like slp is moving up HRV, an impossible happening per most of the experts in other (redacted) forums...;)

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This being an anomalous event with a tricky forecast, the event will
be closely watched for any possible expansion of Winter Weather
Advisories or even an upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning if QPF and
SLRs are higher due to dynamic and evaporational cooling if the low
deepens further than current model guidance and rain changes over
quicker to snow.

Toronto flipped to snow @35...BUF to follow soon @36. Radar looking 'snowish'.

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6 minutes ago, southbuffalowx said:

Just started the change over here, and I'm right by the lake too. I was probably one of the last areas to expect to change over. 34 and the temp is still steadily dropping.

 

I'm gonna guess we'll have 2-3 inches of paste in the morning.

That's awesome! Lots of changeover happening now. I think next 18 hrs gonna be interesting. I'd bet WSW go up at LEAST for elevation counties. 

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