tim123 Posted March 19, 2017 Share Posted March 19, 2017 Dave what euro show today? Ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 19, 2017 Share Posted March 19, 2017 I-90 may offer as a decent battle line in the early going as the 12z Euro shows. Sharp cuttoff to accums. I think this will end up being all or mostly rain south of 90, but still time to change a bit perhaps. Two things that tend to help greatly in early and late season snow storms is elevation and latitude. This looks to be no different. The further north you go the quicker and better chance that cold air filters in to get some snow out of this otherwise unfavorable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 19, 2017 Share Posted March 19, 2017 Think ice may be a issue somewhere. Can't tell surface on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 19, 2017 Share Posted March 19, 2017 Euro does show some ice initially as colder air bleeds in, particularly near and south of 90, but surface temps are in the 31-32 range, so it would be a really marginal setup to get much in the way of ice accretion. I think this will be mostly a rain vs. snow issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 19, 2017 Share Posted March 19, 2017 How much snow in roc on that run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 19, 2017 Share Posted March 19, 2017 50 minutes ago, tim123 said: How much snow in roc on that run? Very sharp gradient to the accumulation output. Using 10:1 ratio... shoreline is 10-14, City proper is 6" and the far south along Livingston Co line is 2-3". Like Dave said though, good chance ratios end up less than 10:1. The Kuch ratio is not automatically greater than 10:1, however, it estimates the snowfall based on thermal profiles, so it will vary its estimates from place to place. The Kuch ratio estimates 6-7:1 in ROC area for this run, so that translates to 6-10" along shoreline, 4" City proper, and 1-2" in far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 19, 2017 Share Posted March 19, 2017 Cool thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 19, 2017 Share Posted March 19, 2017 Anything is cool this time of year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 19, 2017 Share Posted March 19, 2017 Canadian has 12 south of city. So roc is in between best snow on the Canadian and euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 19, 2017 Share Posted March 19, 2017 Snowpack taking it on the chin today. Down to 12-15" on the ground and dropping fast. I'll probably be down to bare ground by weeks end. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 19, 2017 Share Posted March 19, 2017 Snow maps are deceiving, 850s on the euro are extremely borderline, not till hr 174-180 does the 850s go below freezing (-1c) but plenty of time for this trend south.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 19, 2017 Share Posted March 19, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 20, 2017 Share Posted March 20, 2017 Thanks for correcting me on kuchera, I thought it was always a high ratio 20:1. We should always use it. No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 20, 2017 Share Posted March 20, 2017 This next set up isn't an easy one like last. It's more a thread the needle type deal. With elevation and diurnal stuff. Someone could get hit, but not all of us. Like last time. It was a big one. This ain't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 20, 2017 Share Posted March 20, 2017 Euro is just to warm for snow except portions of NE NY state, plenty of precipitation (over 2")..Oh well lol Was just hoping for another 0.6" to get to 160".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 20, 2017 Share Posted March 20, 2017 9 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Thanks for correcting me on kuchera, I thought it was always a high ratio 20:1. We should always use it. No? Taking into account the temp profiles, it offers at least a quick and dirty method of trying to apply reasonable ratios and is probably going to be more accurate than just straight up estimating 5:1, 10:1, 15:1, 20:1 etc. I'm sure it has some limitations in its assumptions, but so far what I've seen it print out for the last few storms seems to reasonably measure up with end results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 20, 2017 Share Posted March 20, 2017 To be honest, I'd love it to be in the mid 60's with the Sun shining bright! Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 20, 2017 Share Posted March 20, 2017 Yeah this potential weekend threat is dying off fast and nothing else in the pipe line for snow threats through the end of the month. I'm ready to enjoy some moderating temps and sunshine too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 21, 2017 Share Posted March 21, 2017 At least March made up for Dec -Jan-Feb's debacle, lol, with 1 synoptic system. Their fun cause everyone on the forum is involved. As opposed to a LES event that's affecting a 15 mule swath from Fulton to Syracuse or The South towns of KBUF andbof course The Tug, so it made it more exciting as well as tracking it for a week or so was also exciting, lol! I seriously hope we've seen the last of the accumulating stuff so we can move on to another season and put this one way behind us. Peace everyone and I'll see you all in the Fall sometime! Remember, we're only days away from the next snowstorm even if a it's a season or 2!TySent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 Boy does it feel cold out, everything is a sheet of ice, 20 degree drop off overnight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 24, 2017 Share Posted March 24, 2017 I love cold rainy days, idk why I do but I do lol 35 degrees and rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Winters "last gasp", about 1/2" of slop down, only the 18z NAM/hrrr showed any potential snow (forecast is 100% rain) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Tomorrow's April 1, the normal high is 50. Winter is dead, any snow we get now won't last half a day. It's time to move on to spring and warm weather - I'm looking forward to working on outside projects. In only about 6 months and we can start looking forward to next winter! P.S. A sure sign of spring - this is opening weekend for Major League Baseball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 31, 2017 Share Posted March 31, 2017 Too bad, this LP track would've been great with more cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 Maybe I got rid of euro subscription too soon. Friday is intriguing. Pretty late for a big one but not out of question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 3, 2017 Share Posted April 3, 2017 What it showing dave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 Sref average 5 inches but storm still goin way after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 Euro had interior western ny (away from both lakes shores) flipping to wet snow early Friday AM and lasting into Friday evening. Obviously anything this time of year is a marginal setup for snow. WNY probably the only part of the region with any real shot at some accumulation with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 6 hours ago, rochesterdave said: Maybe I got rid of euro subscription too soon. Friday is intriguing. Pretty late for a big one but not out of question. 5 hours ago, tim123 said: What it showing dave? Tim!! Didn't you read my post? I don't have access to euro. I ended my subscription. Lol. but I heard it's bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted April 4, 2017 Share Posted April 4, 2017 Sick lookin sky right now up here in Syracuse.Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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