tim123 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Middle of next week looks like it could be interesting. Clipper brings good chunk of artic air. 20 below 850s nw winds. Could be a 3 to 6 er roc east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Euro looks on board for a storm in day 8 9 10 range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Euro going to come in well south of last night 0z for that system next weekend. Might be big hit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Look ls like one of those bowling ball storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Way south. Just need a blend of euro gfs and Canadian and we are golden. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 12z Euro is a real crusher for everyone. Major accums near and south of I-90 verbatim. Too bad its sort of still in fantasy range though, but definitely something to keep an eye on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Really. Map please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Your kidding correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Thanks. Wow. Yeah to bad that's 8 9 days away. That would be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Guess I will leave it at winter still has some potential left. But if that map is correct wow. And it would be a heavy wet snow. Ouch. We shall see. Gfs has been hinting at snow too next couple weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 What's liquid equivalent bgm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 I would imagine this late in season no better than 10 to 1 ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Euro has surface temps in the mid 20s for the storm, and comparing the Kuch and 10:1 ratio maps, it is projecting a 15:1 ratio verbatim with roughly 2-2.5 inches of QPF. Looking at some other H5 maps from Ewall, looks like a thread-the-needle job between getting a favorable track and thermal profiles. Looks like we get a HP dropping south and east from the north to keep this thing from tracking northeast and also to funnel down cold air just in time to get a snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Canadian showed a similar type storm. Just farther north. How far out does ukie go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Only goes out to 72 on the nicer maps, and out to 144 on Ewall. Based on H144 H5 and surface maps, it looks fairly similar to the Euro with the storm sitting near the TX/OK/NM/CO borders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Ok thanks. And I though I was done model watching. Smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 And if possible the German. It did well with last storm. Not sure of its range though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 BGM... .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The next system to impact the region will come Friday afternoon. There are large discrepancies within guidance on the track of the next system, the timing, and the precip type. We will closely monitor this next sfc low as it evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Only site that I have seen the German model on is the same that has the nicer UK maps. It only shows the German ICON out to 78 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Albany... LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The next chance of precipitation arrives on Friday as a warm front approaches from the Ohio valley and mid Atlantic region. Thermal profiles tricky to determine this far out, with a chance of snow to start, then possibly changing to rain especially in valley locations. Some significant differences then start to appear in the GFS/ECMWF solutions for Friday night into the weekend. The GFS is indicating the warm front will pass through allowing for a mild air mass to build in for Saturday, while the parent storm tracks through the eastern Great Lakes. However, the ECMWF is now showing a strong 1040 mb high migrating southeastward across Ontario/Quebec during this time, which would result in the warm front possibly stalling just to our south with the potential for waves of wintry precip moving through. The position/strength of the high will have a large influence in determining where the front sets up, so this is a very low confidence for next weekend including temperatures and precip types/amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 FWIW up to 1.75" with this little system today...judging from radar we might touch 2" by the time it's done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Sneaky Lil system today. Snow bombs falling from the sky now. Radar looks intense near buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Looks convective Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Surface temps are real warm but dynamic cooling might be strong enough to create super heavy wet snow. I'm glad the sun is about to set, that will play in our favor. What an intense/interesting radar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 Snowing in walworth. Hope it's stays just cold enough for that heavy precipitation to move into. May get a inch or so of slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 18, 2017 Share Posted March 18, 2017 1 hour ago, tim123 said: Sneaky Lil system today. Snow bombs falling from the sky now. Radar looks intense near buffalo It's all bright banding. Nothing but a light rain with a few parachutes falling to the ground every now and then. Don't expect anything exciting with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 19, 2017 Share Posted March 19, 2017 We need that Hp to the north to be farther south, a squeeze play between the HP north of Quebec and the Bermuda hp.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 19, 2017 Share Posted March 19, 2017 On 3/15/2017 at 0:22 AM, Syrmax said: I will! In my ne.wx contest I went low from BOS to PHL and DCA figuring the west trend was real...classic for a truly major storm and not some P.O.S. Benchmark runner that drops 8-12, which weenies inflate to 24". Hell, most of them down there measure snow depth by the plow piles in the local Dollar store parking lot. Including the red taggers. Some measure every hour, ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 19, 2017 Share Posted March 19, 2017 The storm is back on Euro for early next week. All depends on strength , location and speed of Canada HP. Heavy, wet, long duration event possible for WNY. Kuchera WILL not be used. 10:1 likely too high. I'm gonna start watching this closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 19, 2017 Share Posted March 19, 2017 Dave what euro show today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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