rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Sweet spot synoptically is I81 corridor. I'd imagine lake will be creating a sweet spot of its own along I90. Great run. There were apparently some dropsondes in there, as well. Leading to a more confident fcst. However, we are still 48-60 hrs out, which is inside the NAMs expertise but outside any sort of real confidence. The lake probably boosts confidence to over 50% on a 6" snowfall for kroc. Using my super secret confidence scale. Lol. It revolves around gut instinct, the latest model run, and however many beers ive consumed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Gfs looks like crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Gfs looks like crap lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I mean really. How is there such a huge discrepancy from nam to gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 GFS definitely did some crazy bs WRT to the surface evolution after 54. Take it with a grain of salt. Like to see what the ensemble output shows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 GFS adds to totals late in the game. But yep, it looks like crap. Southern tier does ok. It was great until hr 60 and then it just cranks east. I thought it looked like it would hug. But the dig wasnt negative enough. Wait for the eps. This is the not fun part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Honestly, it just never phased. It totally looked like it would and then didn't. I wouldn't be surprised if Eps or euro phase. We are all good still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Why can't it just be in agreement one way or the other. Apparently this is a phasing issue and that will determine track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Even if it doesn't phase, we still have the midwest low and lake enhancement. Hey, a 3-6" storm is pretty sweet this time of year. But of course, I too want the 2 footer. We got time for the models to come to agreement. There are knowledgeable folks on line that just cant believe that gfs run didn't phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Canadian gives us 2 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The Canadian LP is also west of where it was at 12z run. So lets wait before throwing in the towel. A lot depends on the midwest low. If the Euro caves. We can give up. But, things havent changed that much. QPF output is kinda secondary right now. But I didn't like the GEM. Or the GFS. On a moist NE flow, we at least get a few inches of fluff. The Canadian gives areas south of erie quite a bit. No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Looks like ukie came west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Unfortunately, GEFS is east. No big phase. Lower totals than even GFS. And no, I don't have the totals. I can just tell from the maps. We will have to rely on the midwest low and lake effect if this is correct. Big storm for Long Island and Cape Cod. UGH. Dang. Euro could still surprise us. But as usual, I bet its earlier runs set the pace. Not OTS, but close. Good night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 So tired of Philly and SNE getting the big ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Sounds like some disappointing trends on models tonight. 12Z runs tomorrow should tell the tale on whether watches are dropped. Complex storm that could still break our way though if we get lucky. Meanwhile...a nice Huron band has been sitting over me for about an hour. Solid snowcover for a change IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Euro is better, details to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Solid hit across the board on the Euro. Basically .8-1.25 precip for everyone through 18z Wednesday. HRV/E NY 1.25-1.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 At hr 90, kbuf 1.3" , Kroc 1.1, ksyr 0.9", kfzy 0.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Euro is well west of 12z; 10-16" for WNY/CNY. The trends tonight are west. Tomorrow should bring more clarity as the last piece of the puzzle gets sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Syracuse mKes it to an inch , Fulton just under.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Can you post final snow map. What's final qpf for roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Cool. I am saying 15 to 1 so I will take 18 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: At hr 90, kbuf 1.3" , Kroc 1.1, ksyr 0.9", kfzy 0.8" Albany/Capital Region? EDIT: Never mind, just saw the map! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Gorizer said: Albany/Capital Region? 1.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 1.4" Thanks folks. I think this will help me sleep now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Stole this from another board, this is only till hr 84, 14" in Fulton on .7" of precipitation, we still see another 1/4", so 20-1 ratios.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 That's only to 84 . You really think this will have 20 to 1 ratio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Most of our snow comes from the wraparound/lake enhancement.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 If it's 20 to 1 then roc gets close to 2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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