Syrmax Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 hour ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: He's actually gung ho on this one, maybe for that specific reason, that he won't be here,lol. Exactly! History shows I rarely jackpot. Name a biggie...I was mispositioned for it. The crowning glory was March '93...entire eastern hemisphere gets crushed (only slightly exaggerating), and I stayed in SECT for it instead of heading to parents in Vestal, near BGM, where they got 30+"...I witnessed about 4" then sleet then rain then mostly dryslot. I blame my then GF who couldn't understand why I would make a trip home for a snowstorm. She was eventually sent packing, for obvious reasons..,,;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Blizzard watch NYC and alI and southern CT. Virtually every snowstorm down there comes with Blizzard headlines in last decade. Few have verified (other than on a remote fishing pier sticking out into the ocean)...although the last one did verify broad Blizzard criteria in eastern New England...other than CC where it Mostly rained, IIRC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 It is interesting to note that an unusually deep dendritic growth zone should also be in place at this time...with depths exceeding 5k ft versus the typical 3k ft found in most pure lake effect storms. This will truly be a hybrid synoptic-lake effect event. Some of the most impactful storms for the Rochester area have come from such scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 looking at the bufkit warehouse (cobb method) the 12z Nam had an avg liquid-snow ratio of 19-1 and the gfs was at 21-1..(ksyr) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Seen storms like this drop a foot of synoptic and a foot of Lake enhanced on roc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 3 minutes ago, tim123 said: Seen storms like this drop a foot of synoptic and a foot of Lake enhanced on roc. Ironically enough, at this stage I could see WNY doing better than anyone else in the state outside of maybe Long Island. Here in ENY right now my biggest concern is getting stuck between the primary, and the secondary developing too far offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: looking at the bufkit warehouse (cobb method) the 12z Nam had an avg liquid-snow ratio of 19-1 and the gfs was at 21-1..(ksyr) That's pretty high for synoptic I think, even up here. The highest ratios in a decent sized synoptic storm that I can remember here was the late January "cold storm" circa 2005...it was an eastern New England blizzard that we ended up with around a foot here despite best forcing and qpf well east of us...but ratios were quite high...temps during storm were in single digits, I think slowly rose to near 10 degrees overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Ratios are very dependant on snow growth zone not just temp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 minutes ago, tim123 said: Ratios are very dependant on snow growth zone not just temp I ****ing know that Mr. Science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Hey dave what are your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Sref average snowfall is 17 inches for rochester. Min is 4 inches high is 46 inches!!!. But a decent cluster 15 to 21 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 26 minutes ago, tim123 said: Sref average snowfall is 17 inches for rochester. Min is 4 inches high is 46 inches!!!. But a decent cluster 15 to 21 inches The SREF are always way overdone.... do think this will be a good one around ROC however, and all along the South Shore from Niagara to Oswego counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Sref are are a indication heavier snows come farther west even has but at a mean of 15. So we wait for nam. Should be snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Looking like nam wants to phase earlier. Looking like a big hit for Western ny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Decent nam run. Tim, I still like the set up. The east shift had me a bit concerned (from 18z), but I think it's just noise. SREF do run high until 24 hrs out and then chop in half with of last 4 runs. Still looking good for thruway towns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: It is interesting to note that an unusually deep dendritic growth zone should also be in place at this time...with depths exceeding 5k ft versus the typical 3k ft found in most pure lake effect storms. This will truly be a hybrid synoptic-lake effect event. Some of the most impactful storms for the Rochester area have come from such scenario Dave you see this from nws in buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 0z NAM added about .25qpf to W and C NY from prior 18z run. 2.00" stripe across C NY. What I wouldn't give for that, just once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Kbuf had me at WSW. They were first out the gate. They like this one. 'Pattern recognition', 'south of ontario' -they just keep whispering sweet things. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 5 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: 0z NAM added about .25qpf to W and C NY from prior 18z run. 2.00" stripe across C NY. What I wouldn't give for that, just once. How much qpf for roc. Nam on tt is coming in slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Actually run wasn't done when I posted last. Even better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 wouldn't want to drive from KBGM to KSYR but you can basically cut totals in half, which is still a great hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 thee will be some sick enhancement thats for sure! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Nam is pretty much a wetter version of last nights European.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Plus still goin strong at end of run in roc from lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I own a home in Staten Island and if this thing gets to far East, Im gettin in my whip and I'm headed South! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 8 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: Actually run wasn't done when I posted last. Even better... This cant be right as SNE gets the shaft, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Road trip haha I can go down to the in laws in freehold nj but not gonna waist my time, hopefully they rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Road trip haha I can go down to the in laws in freehold nj but not gonna waist my time, hopefully they rain lol Their not gonna rain?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I'd say hamilton Ontario to rochester to Oswego to Syr Ithaca . Is looking like 1 to 2 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, tim123 said: I'd say hamilton Ontario to rochester to Oswego to Syr Ithaca . Is looking like 1 to 2 feet. We can only hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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