wolfie09 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Canadian model is the only guidance that hasn't blown this up over here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 thats a what, 800 mile jog from last nights 00z run? That's just hilarious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Euro with ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: Euro with ratios I'll take this in a heartbeat? Whats all the complaining about then? That's without LE that is inevitable in this situation. The LE aspect can be impressive maybe even more so than the event itself so I was way premature with my disaster posts, lol. Maybe I should to wait to see guidance before I spew nonsense, lol. Learned a good lesson, don't listen to anyone until you see it for yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 NW Mass gets the shaft with 9", come on, I think the problem is they've been spoiled as every event is in the double digits but a 9-12" event is a warning event. WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Ecm ensembles, looks like all are west of OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Stealing more images lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 5 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Ecm ensembles, looks like all are west of OP Says alot right there. As in don't jump ship over 1 operational run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Throw 12z op out. Every single ensemble (all 51) well west of operational run. It had problems Still, consensus 12z runs too Far East for c/WNY to get crush job. It's the lake enhancement that is allowing Rochester to still be in the game and the western trough. Ill be curious to see the 0z run. If east trend continues we can hope for some lake stuff. If they correct west (I think so), we can still be excited. Don't discount the NAM - but it's clearly an outlier now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Wsw just issued, 7"-14".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 KBUF is the only office throughout the Northeast to issue headlines, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 not any more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Always got the NAM lol (with ratios) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 All of NYS officially under either WS or Blizzard Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The NAM has been right before in situations like this. It can't be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Kbuf has the heaviest snowfall just to the SW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The 15z SREFs are really nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 NAM is just a wrecking ball of a solution. Verbatim it drops 20-24" over just a 12 or less hour window around BGM. That would sufficiently bring everything to a stand still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Buffalo Afternoon update After that...our attention will then turn to a complex winter storm that now appears as if it will have some potentially significant impacts for our region during the Monday night-Wednesday time frame. During this period...a strong mid-level trough will drop southeastward from central Canada and interact with an initially separate shortwave lifting northeastward from the Tennessee Valley...with all available guidance continuing to suggest better phasing between these two features than what had been advertised a mere 24 hours or so ago. The end result of all this will be an initial primary surface low over the Ohio Valley maintaining its identity longer while lifting toward western New York Monday night and Tuesday...before transferring its energy to a rapidly developing secondary coastal low later Tuesday and Tuesday night...which will track northeastward along or just a bit offshore of the Mid Atlantic and New England coastlines. Under the warm advection regime out ahead of this system...plentiful moisture and lift will be transported into our region Monday night and Tuesday...then will linger in place right through Tuesday night and Wednesday as our region comes under the influence of the wraparound portion of the increasingly dominant coastal low. With plenty of cold air remaining in place across our region...this will result in a prolonged widespread moderate snowfall for our region...with the snow also becoming lake enhanced Tuesday night and Wednesday as colder air wraps southward around the backside of the strengthening coastal low. Taking both pattern recognition and a consensus of the 12z/11 guidance suite/WPC QPF guidance into account...the potential for a widespread warning-criteria snowfall certainly seems to exist across our entire region during the Monday night to Wednesday time frame...particularly south of Lake Ontario where the aforementioned lake enhancement will likely come into play during the second half of the event. Based on this... continued model agreement on a more phased system...and collaboration with neighboring WFOs...we have elected to hoist winter storm watches for our entire area...as outlined in the watch/warning/advisory section below. As we move into Wednesday night...the coastal low will lift out into the Canadian Maritimes while high pressure builds east from the central Great Lakes...with synoptic-scale moisture consequently diminishing across our area. This will result in any leftover synoptic-scale snow showers giving way to some scattered lake effect snow showers south and southeast of the lakes to close out the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 hours ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: I'll take this in a heartbeat? Whats all the complaining about then? That's without LE that is inevitable in this situation. The LE aspect can be impressive maybe even more so than the event itself so I was way premature with my disaster posts, lol. Maybe I should to wait to see guidance before I spew nonsense, lol. Learned a good lesson, don't listen to anyone until you see it for yourself. Partially to blame on this. Saw EURO snow outputs at 10 to 1 and had us in 4 to 8, that and other forums in meltdown mode. Still skeptical at 60 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 15z sref for Ithaca has 4 members above 40". One over 50". WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Ecm ensembles, looks like all are west of OP Can somebody remind me how this can happen? How does the OP run end up outside all the ensemble locations? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 8 hours ago, Syrmax said: Unfortunately for the capital district, I will be there this week for work. My track record for being in a jackpot area for big storms is not good. The few exceptions was VD2.0 here and the two back to back 20+" snowstorms, Xmas and a week later, near Albany back in 2001 or 02. Otherwise I tend to be in localized minima areas, or completely shafted like March 1993. I am going to pull a Syrmax and say we miss this and get nickeled and dimed with lake enhancement Tuesday night and a Wednesday. Syrmax is usually spot on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 14 minutes ago, phoenixny said: I am going to pull a Syrmax and say we miss this and get nickeled and dimed with lake enhancement Tuesday night and a Wednesday. Syrmax is usually spot on! He's actually gung ho on this one, maybe for that specific reason, that he won't be here,lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Close up of Gfs ensemble members.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Might as well throw out my home country (18z German), looks like a lot of the ecm ensembles.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Next frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Might as well throw out my home country (18z German), looks like a lot of the ecm ensembles.. Bist du Deutscher? Or did you mean German by descent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 The eventual southern piece of energy is coming ashore between 0z-12z so should get a real good idea how this is going to play out over the 3 model runs. Good, bad, or ugly, I am all in and staying up for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Was born in Germany (military pops) but I do not speak the language haha, moved here when I was like 4.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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