tim123 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Gfs looks a hair west of 18z. Like 10 miles west. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Eh, we are into the now casting range now so I'd focus on short-term/hi-res meso models going forward. GFS is hell bent on being by itself to the east, let it take it to its grave, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 GFS has 1.1" at SYR...at hour 42....exact same as hour 48 at 18z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Radar look to be blowing up snow now over rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 8 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Just for sh*&ts and giggles, I'll throw out a guess for high/low storm totals: High - tough call, but I'll go with the scenic village of Hamilton. thinking they'll get a piece of the deformation band plus some wraparound lake enhancement. With a storm total of 31". Low - easy call, WNash's backyard in Buffalo. Sorry man, you're the only one who had a Debbie moment on our board today. You come in with 4" of sugary snow that accumulates over 61 hours. Don't get me wrong, I'm in awe and excited for everyone north and east of here, but being just outside of a historic storm is the capper on a bad season, so nobody ought to blame me if I grumble a bit. BTW, we have had confectioners sugar all evening, so maybe my sulking wish for a sub-60" season will come true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Were in buffalo are you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Gfs has come up over past runs. Looks to give Roc a bit more than a inch. But in terms of lake enhanced lake effect forget it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 I still don't understand why the precip shield is not to the NW of the H700 as most of the omega is to its N&E which just doesn't make sense or am I wrong here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, tim123 said: Were in buffalo are you. Northeast. Near the Cheektowaga and Amherst border, a couple miles almost due west of the NWS office. Not the snowiest part of the Metro but we can get in on a southwest flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 I would like to contribute but i am at a bar in albany area thats turned into a pre blizzard party gerting uodates feom you all. This is great stuff! If it rains in SNE and NYC while we get 2 ft plus, the world has veen set right again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Yeah been a tough winter but hey could be in Pittsburgh. Roc has done very well this year with lake snow. It has saved our winter. I'd say up till now 75 percent of our 76 inches has been lake effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: I would like to contribute but i am at a bar in albany area thats turned into a pre blizzard party gerting uodates feom you all. This is great stuff! If it rains in SNE and NYC while we get 2 ft plus, the world has veen set right again. Have a Martini for me will ya? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I would like to contribute but i am at a bar in albany area thats turned into a pre blizzard party gerting uodates feom you all. This is great stuff! If it rains in SNE and NYC while we get 2 ft plus, the world has veen set right again. The consolation is that even if Buffalo only gets a few inches of fluff, there's a good chance that in NYC (where I used to live) they may be looking at sleet and a cold rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Incoming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Model time is probably over. But CMC and GFS cut totals for WNY by a bit. Maybe 25%. Something to watch. The NAM was probably too good. Like to see storm tuck a bit more. Exciting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Looks like landfall between cape fear and Cape lookout. Lol winter hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 When does German and ukie come out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 9 minutes ago, Syrmax said: I would like to contribute but i am at a bar in albany area thats turned into a pre blizzard party gerting uodates feom you all. This is great stuff! If it rains in SNE and NYC while we get 2 ft plus, the world has veen set right again. Enjoy! The way the past few winters have gone, I'd be happy with just a double digit snowfall in mid-March. It's been too long since we've had such a good track for much of Upstate NY and far Western NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 12 minutes ago, tim123 said: When does German and ukie come out? They are probably already out somewhere, but don't have a link to the German ICON. The nicer maps for the UK don't come out for another 30 min or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 13 minutes ago, tim123 said: When does German and ukie come out? Here's the German: http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?run=00&mode=latest&map=na&mod=dwd_icon&lang=fr I'm tagging out for a few hours....enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Global models are quite useless at this point, as it is nowcast time ppl! Look at Satellite and Radar and it'll tell you all you need to know IMO! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 German Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1.5 for roc. Nice. Is still shows snow south of lake at hour 78. Lol. Another Tornado in florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 UK still drops the hammer. Same as last several runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 We will have a decent event. A bit concerned about where the LP is setting up. Probably a touch to the East of where I hoped. 3 hr pressure falls and all. The HRRR shows a pretty steep cutoff from East to West with Rochester kinda on the line. Close call for 8" or 24". Really wanna see this go a bit more negative. But im nervous by nature during these things. Beer isn't helping yet. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Lowest pressure is in Wilmington north Carolina. Moving due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 pressure falls look great, Precip is blossoming right on cue and we have no worries of tainting so right now, IMO, we are golden and so r u! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 North of Cape fear is the low. 1005 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 This looks a lot better than earlier. Thanks for talking me off the bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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