Gravity Wave Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 NAM 12km looks west through 10 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 18" on the mean for kbuf, not bad for the "rip off zone" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 17 minutes ago, Gorizer said: I don't dare speak. As a professional lurker I can confirm that you guys are doing an awesome job. Carry on! I'm trying to catch up. Work closed in advance for tomorrow so I stayed a little late. Everything looks incredible. You'll do very well there on Mt. Duanesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1" liquid, so 18-1 ratios.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 46 minutes ago, tim123 said: Were is everyone. On the eve of a historic storm? GOD!! Can't I catch a nap during the "dead" time???? lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 NAM and Para NAM are def MOG worthy. Just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 NAM is west and wet. I almost cant believe it. Had a bad feeling. Guess we are locked and loaded. Syracuse really looks to cash in. As hvy returns make it that far west for midday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 NAM and Para are Nuts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Could Syracuse see 3 feet? Maybe!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Bad feeling dave. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Fun fact for those referencing the Super Storm. Superstorm 93 was 976mb over the Gulf of Mexico! Ol stella girl will be lucky to get to that point at full maturity. The Superstorm was on another level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Look at how far West the West coast ridge axis is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dutch Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: Fun fact for those referencing the Super Storm. Superstorm 93 was 976mb over the Gulf of Mexico! Ol stella girl will be lucky to get to that point at full maturity. The Superstorm was on another level. weenie question about that, does the fact that stella will be intensifying as it moves from the SE up to the mid atlantic help it over perform? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Someone just east of Hamilton is getting the thick of that lake band... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 And KBGM stays with 10-16, lol! They are unreal but I guess whats the difference between 16" and 30", right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Superstorm was fully developed over Fla. Gave Birmingham a **** ton of snow. This isn't that. Could be real big though. I doubt we see another Storm of the Century like that. This could be the storm of the year, maybe the decade. LOL. I always worry being on west side of precip shield. We don't have much wiggle room. If I were in Albany, I wouldn't be nervous. But if this thing jumped east we could lose a lot of support an moisture. I haven't seen that happen. But storms move a bit east on models with in 24 hrs. Ive seen it many times. Not happening on NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Just now, rochesterdave said: Superstorm was fully developed over Fla. Gave Birmingham a **** ton of snow. This isn't that. Could be real big though. I doubt we see another Storm of the Century like that. This could be the storm of the year, maybe the decade. LOL. I always worry being on west side of precip shield. We don't have much wiggle room. If I were in Albany, I wouldn't be nervous. But if this thing jumped east we could lose a lot of support an moisture. I haven't seen that happen. But storms move a bit east on models with in 24 hrs. Ive seen it many times. Not happening on NAM Its not happening Dave so calm your nerves bro. The ones who should be nervous are the East Coasters who think armageddon is coming, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Nam spits out 2" liq Eq, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 I was saying it's like 93. Just that the storm gets going farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 5 minutes ago, vortmax said: Someone just east of Hamilton is getting the thick of that lake band... Somewhere around Grimsby it looks like. Snow on the greenhouses! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 4 minutes ago, dutch said: weenie question about that, does the fact that stella will be intensifying as it moves from the SE up to the mid atlantic help it over perform? I don't think it will help it over perform because its already forecasted to be quite intense. Explosive cyclogenesis is pretty standard in Miller B's like this. It might over perform for the South Lake Ontario counties if the lake enhancement is as robust and long lasting as it appears it will be. -Side note - The superstorm deepened another 20mb to mind boggling 956mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 26 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: 18" on the mean for kbuf, not bad for the "rip off zone" I'd be thrilled, but for whatever reason, BUF and local broadcast mets are sticking to 8-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Quote Crippling storm if NAM is correct. Shave off a bit on QPF and still a 2' plus storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 9 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Superstorm was fully developed over Fla. Gave Birmingham a **** ton of snow. This isn't that. Could be real big though. I doubt we see another Storm of the Century like that. This could be the storm of the year, maybe the decade. LOL. I always worry being on west side of precip shield. We don't have much wiggle room. If I were in Albany, I wouldn't be nervous. But if this thing jumped east we could lose a lot of support an moisture. I haven't seen that happen. But storms move a bit east on models with in 24 hrs. Ive seen it many times. Not happening on NAM I don't feel all that comfortable with this setup either but the upper level pattern should technically allow a nice transport of moisture Westward initially and then a continuance of snow with the upper low. Add in the lake effect and we should be good, but it wont be pounding snow like East of 81. I definitely could see Erie or Niagara county getting shafted pretty hard, its happened in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 This time tomorrow night we will be half way through storm. Plus short range models really blasting south Shore now. Especially roc east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Nam 18z total qpf vs Nam 00z: 18z: 00z: With more to come via Sweet Ol' Lake Ontario!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Additionally, anyone know how to find any reports from West end of Lake Ontario? I have to imagine some extremely localized areas are near a foot of snow. That band has been impressively robust and stable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 1 minute ago, rochesterdave said: That's from 18z Dave.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 14, 2017 Share Posted March 14, 2017 While on the topic of March '93 Superstorm, that storm yielded a 2-day total of 22.3 at KBGM, so I do think this storm has a legit shot to exceed '93 in terms of accumulations here locally, and maybe a few other locations potentially. But in terms of overall impact at the macro level, yeah '93 won't be topped for reasons already mentioned by others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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