BGM Blizzard Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 BGM has posted blizzard warnings for the southwestern Catskills, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 6 minutes ago, ayuud11 said: BUF always getting left out from the action lol but I'll even take those amounts in a heartbeat.. 36 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said: Is that really a light blue 6-8 pixel for DT Buffalo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, WNash said: Is that really a light blue 6-8 pixel for DT Buffalo? Yes... I believe it is....it's like a never ending joke this season out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Kbuf As we get into the day Tuesday, the developing coast low will begin tracking from the mid-Atlantic to the Northeast states. This developing storm system will hold back the upper-level low over the Great Lakes, which will allow for synoptic forcing to linger across the region all day ahead of the upper low and moisture advection from the Atlantic increases into central NY. Widespread snowfall will impact all of NY State and could become heavy at times. The higher snowfall rates (up to an inch per hour at times) will develop as the flow becomes northerly off Lake Ontario, creating lake enhancement and upslope for locations south of Lake Ontario and the northern Finger Lakes higher terrain. Snowfall amounts on Tuesday will range from around 3 to 5 inches the Buffalo and Watertown areas, to 4 to 7 inches for the lake and upslope enhanced Chautauqua Ridge, southern Lake Ontario shoreline, northern Finger Lakes and Tug Hill Our attention remains on the deep Nor`easter that will be lifting northward across coastal New England Tuesday night through Wednesday. Moisture wrapping around the deep storm system will maintain steady synoptic snow across the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. Meanwhile, temperatures aloft will be dropping to around -16c at 850 mb on the western side of the system. This will result in increasing over-lake instability, which will enhance the synoptic lift south of Lake Ontario and southeast of Lake Erie. Expect the worst conditions to be along the south shore of Lake Ontario Tuesday night through at least the first half of Wednesday, from Niagara county to Syracuse including the Rochester Metro area, with a combination of snow and blowing snow potentially producing near blizzard conditions at times. Secondary area of concern will be south of Buffalo along the Chautauqua ridge as winds back around to a northwesterly direction. It appears increasingly likely that significant snows will occur for areas immediately south of Lake Ontario in 8 to 15 inch range during the Tuesday night through Wednesday time frame, including the Rochester metro area. Additionally, the northerly flow Tuesday night and Wednesday will bring an upslope component that will allow for higher totals of 6-10 inches in the higher terrain of the Boston and Bristol Hills and higher spots across Wyoming County. A relative snowfall minimum is likely for the Buffalo metro area as it will probably be spared from the bulk of the lake enhanced snows. Additionally, gusty northerly winds into the 20-25 mph range will bring blowing and drifting snow as the event unfolds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 BGM just sent out new warning statements for all of C NY and they are keeping the range at 10-18. Guess they are still hung up on the GFS being further east. They'll come around later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 11 to 22 roc from nws Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Also saying near blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 18z 12km NAM is west with the surface low and the precip shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 40 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: A relative snowfall minimum is likely for the Buffalo metro area as it will probably be spared from the bulk of the lake enhanced snows. Additionally, gusty northerly winds into the 20-25 mph range will bring blowing and drifting snow as the event unfolds Burn this useless winter, which has screwed us every way possible. I hope we get just a few inches of fluff because I want this winter to finish under 60". If we can get through the season with less than 7.1" then we will achieve that goal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: 18z 12km NAM is west with the surface low and the precip shield. U aint kidding, wow. Might be best NAM run yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 NAM is very close to Euro solution, actually. This is insane. BGM might want to think about doubling that 10-18 pretty soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: NAM is very close to Euro solution, actually. This is insane. I love it when clown maps might actually be real instead of #fakesnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 12z NMM at 10-1 ratios by wed AM (probably a little overboard lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 4km and 3km NAM are west as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Finally getting enhancement on higher resolution models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 How do the LO water temps compare to average this time of year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 All 3 NAM editions are advertising a nice band that moves through tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 What I wouldn't give to have a meso-band parked right over my head as shown on the NAM reflectivity... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 12km NAM Kuchera ratios give ROC 19.9", ITH 27.4", SYR 30.9", and BGM 38.5" through 48 hours with wraparound snows ongoing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Can't imagine the heartbreak in the big cities with last runs. 30"-5" of sleet. Been there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Starting to die out now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Starting to die out now.. Can barely imagine better map for ny. NYC 1" on east side. Ouch. Roc-syr-bing-alb looks to jackpot somewhere in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 http://models.weatherbell.com/nam/2017031318/ne/nam_z700_rh_ne_9.pngas far west as I've seen with 700. Drives nne into vt and Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 How do you guys share images on here. When I copy and paste it just gives URL. Screen shot sucks but it's the best I've seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 You need to make sure to press enter so that your text doesn't run into the image link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just save the pic to your phone and click on "reply to this topic" then "click to choose file"..Should bring u to your photo gallery, then upload image.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Or if you dont want to download, you can just right-click on the image, select 'copy image address', and then in the posting box here select the 'Insert other media' in bottom right and then select 'insert image from URL'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 RGEM a little west/wetter for the forum, but it still has a more constricted precip field in the NW than the Euro/NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 GFS also shifted west/wetter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Just insane if you ask me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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