tim123 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Duluth under lake snow warnings up to a foot. Atmosphere is primed for this storm. Could be a special one here in roc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 06z German really picking up on the LE enhacment on the back end, it looks really good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Nice!! Looks like fulton is right on the 40mm line and still snowing lightly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Have to make a trip to about 30 miles south of Utica tmw morning, arriving around 7am. From what I've glanced at here and on the afd it doesn't seem like it should be overly heavy rates (2"+/hr) and while not ideal it shouldn't be horrible driving either at least not that early in the day. Should be heading back by 830. Am I correct or should I plan on this being more out of control by then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 3 hours ago, tim123 said: Duluth under lake snow warnings up to a foot. Atmosphere is primed for this storm. Could be a special one here in roc This is a good point. Warm lake, cold air, lots of moisture...LE could prove to be big... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 HPC heavy snowfall disc... THIS WILL BE EASILY BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD WINTER EVENT OF THE SEASON FOR THE NERN QUAD OF THE COUNTRY AND MATCHING ALMOST 24 YRS TO DATE OF SUPERSTORM 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 That storm is still the #2analog Based off the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I'm hoping we don't get any damn snow since i sold my snowmobile haha. All snowmobilers can thank me for the snow haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The one good thing about this storm is that for the first time in a long time there's no mention of taint anytime or anywhere in central/ western New York. The bad side is it is mid-March so the shelf life of the snow will be limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 The euro and gfs say we get more snow on sat, gfs is cold all the way till the end of march.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Some early morning weather porn courtesy of the 6z Canadian HRDPS (note this is just till 2 am wed) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Don't discount the ratios with this....while ENY and WNE get more qpf....we will definitely have much better ratios....probably by at least 50%....I'm thinking 15:1 through a good portion of the storm (the first 1" of qpf) and then more like 20:1 for the end of the storm (the last .5+")....really thinking this is a 14-24" system for all in W/C NY will lollies.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 How are the winds looking? Still in the 20-30 with 35+gusts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Latest 09z SREF plumes.. KBUF 19.8" 5.55"-37.50 spread KROC 22.63" 4.96"-37.95" spread KSYR 22.79" 0.81"-44.62" spread KALB 20.98" 5.01"-36.55" spread KBGM 22.66" 1.14"-39.12" spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Haha yea that member can be thrown out, 2nd lowest is near 11".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 New SREF mean is 25" at Ithaca, but only one member has less than 12" and there is only a handful of high outliers skewing the mean up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 NAM running yet, damn I forgot DST Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I noticed BGM did not mention any shifts in the modeling or increase their totals. Hopefully 12z holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 12z 12km Para NAM looks pretty similar to last night's run in terms of track and intensity. QPF shield maybe a little more restricted on the west side but I'd say that's noise. Will post QPF shortly when its done loading... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Nice to see Lake Ontario is already ready to play. She's sending out a leggy little band heading East to West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Nice to see Lake Ontario is already ready to play. She's sending out a leggy little band heading East to West. Nice catch...just saw that now. Ready and willing. Nice band off Erie as well...heading towards Detroit. Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe- Including the cities of Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe 855 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017 ...Lake enhanced snow in the Detroit area... Light snow will continue into the afternoon at rates generally less than one half inch per hour. The exception will be the Detroit Metro Area, particularly Wayne County and locations nearby. In these locations, additional moisture feeding off of Lake Erie will contribute to locally higher snowfall rates. Localized rates of up to 1 inch per hour will be possible at times. Motorists, particularly those in the Detroit Metro Area, should be prepared for rapid deterioration of visibility and road conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 NAM Para QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I noticed BGM did not mention any shifts in the modeling or increase their totals. Hopefully 12z holds serve.Yes they did, at least up here they did. Was 11, now 14 likely. They also had a briefing. Go to FB page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 NAM Para QPF...Looks like it held course?Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Both the Para and the regular Nam smash us big time! Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 Waiting for some pink to start showing up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 9 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: Yes they did, at least up here they did. Was 11, now 14 likely. They also had a briefing. Go to FB page Ah ok I had only read the AFD and warning statements is all and they still had the 10-18 with isolated 20+ in NE Pa and Catskills lingo in there from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 New RGEM shifted to the west even more (about 25 miles)...now LP goes over RI into SE Mass.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 700 looking purdy. I'd sure live it to tick anothe 50 west, but this should do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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