Syrmax Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 KBGM goes with WSW... I think we need to relax a bit...this looks like a pretty solid system for all of upstate NY, which is a bit rare. I'm not going to sweat run to run perturbations in model output...esp the 18z versions. With the wide array of models today, there's always going to be variation. If 00Z tonight and then 12Z tomorrow change something I'll take it more seriously. ACCUMULATIONS...Storm totals of 10 to 15 inches by Wednesday, with localized amounts up to 18 inches, especially over the higher elevations. * TIMING...Snow is expected to develop over the region later Monday evening, generally after 11 pm to midnight. Snow will become heavy at times overnight and on Tuesday. Snowfall rates of around an inch per hour are quite possible. Steady, although somewhat lighter snow, will continue Tuesday night and Wednesday, with additional accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Rgem looks nice for Western ny. 5 inches at 10 to 1 at hour 48. With probably 24 hrs of snow after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 10 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: SREF's still look good but a 5"-43" spread is laughable with a system that should commence within 36hrs. Lol! I've never really used the SREF's in a forecast or my review of models for a storm. I guess that's 1 way to score a 100% on a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Rgem looks nice for Western ny. 5 inches at 10 to 1 at hour 48. With probably 24 hrs of snow after. Wants to take low into central new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 minute ago, Syrmax said: KBGM goes with WSW... I think we need to relax a bit...this looks like a pretty solid system for all of upstate NY, which is a bit rare. I'm not going to sweat run to run perturbations in model output...esp the 18z versions. With the wide array of models today, there's always going to be variation. If 00Z tonight and then 12Z tomorrow change something I'll take it more seriously. ACCUMULATIONS...Storm totals of 10 to 15 inches by Wednesday, with localized amounts up to 18 inches, especially over the higher elevations. * TIMING...Snow is expected to develop over the region later Monday evening, generally after 11 pm to midnight. Snow will become heavy at times overnight and on Tuesday. Snowfall rates of around an inch per hour are quite possible. Steady, although somewhat lighter snow, will continue Tuesday night and Wednesday, with additional accumulations. I didn't think KBGM would of let 1 model run change their minds anyhow especially considering all the other variables involved. All the other components of this system are ideal and to some extent damn good looking. I'm talking about the H700 LP and the H850 are in great positions so we'll see! Precip maps can really screw with ones thinking from run to run especially the way their flip-flopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I'll gladly take this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Potential is definitely there though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 16 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Yes again, the SREF are always overdone, and this was from before the 18z models came out (NAM). Garuntee the 21z SREF will drop substantially. I'm keeping my fingers crossed for a last minute NW jog to screw over our SNE friends.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 It's still possible. If low gets goin sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Gfs is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Looks like euro from 2 days ago. Playing catch up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 You cant say a model is outright wrong Tim, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I looks just like the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Nice lake band getting goin across the Cuse and its coming down quite nicely and it looks like this band might hang around for an hr or so, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Kbuf this morning said models have tough time picking up lake enhancement, that is where most our snow comes from..Stop looking at globals and start looking at SR lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 It did bring up qpf from 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Gfs shows 0.01-0.02 every frame for 36 straight hours on nw/nnw wind, it has no idea.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Their starting to converge on a solution I think and I think tonight's 00Z run is gonna answer a lot of questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 1 hour ago, Syrmax said: I think winds, sfc and 850 are more NE'erly...where the HRV gets shafted with significant downsloping precip mins are more in the more freakish high speed due easterly wind flows, such as in a stalled long duration nor'easter. For the average nor'easter, which this will be...not so much, although elevated areas of course do better than the valley. I saw several nice nor'easter dumps living in Albany northern burbs when i was there. This. There shouldn't be downslope issues here. Biggest issues I can see here are a more offshore track, or some mega band just to our east causing us to smoke subsidence. The last time we got 100% screwed from downsloping was December 1992. It's pretty rare. Even stalling storms are ok depending on the prevailing wind direction (ironically enough, our largest storm on record March 1888). Hopefully the globals have the right idea and all of upstate can do well with this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 FWIW the NMM, ARW, and 3km NAM are all quite west with the precip and the surface low. Perhaps the high resolution models are picking up better on this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 12z ukmet was pretty far west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Here is the german, keep in mind we see hours and hrs of wrap around/Lake enhancement afterwords.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 It looks like everything your posting Wolf has ticked West as the SLP now almost goes over the cape? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Could it be we're seeing that 50-75 mile jog to the West within 24hrs of the event? We can only hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Lets hope the 18z UK is on to something.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I thought that was the Rgem. The German?? Does anyone take that serious except the Germans? Hey, maybe they have superior guidance compared to us. God knows their cars are engineered better than ours, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I don't know much about the german but i take the UK seriously, for years it was #2 in verification behind the euro, not sure anymore.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 UK is definitely a legit model. I agree that the GFS is out to lunch; you can see the MSLP chasing the heavy precip east off the NJ coast. Even if the track is correct then there should be far more precip thrown into eastern PA and NJ than it's showing. The 18z RGEM also ticked west by 25 miles or so; the heavy banding makes it up to BGM and UCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 I just heard, from the NE board the the new RPM takes the low over CT and up through KBOS and into the GOM! Brings rain all the way into 495.Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 13, 2017 Share Posted March 13, 2017 13 minutes ago, CNY-LES FREAK said: I just heard, from the NE board the the new RPM takes the low over CT and up through KBOS and into the GOM! Brings rain all the way into 495. Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk This has been one hectic storm for modeling. Back and forth. Good then ugly. Exhilaratingly fantastic then disasteriously heartbreaking... and the storm hasn't even happened yet. The way I look at it, whatever snow we do get will look good on top of the small base (just enough to completely cover the grass) so it's all a bonus wether it's 4" or 14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.