BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Decided to make a quick thread before I left. Looks like a possible Winter storm Warning criteria snowfall for all of NYS. 2 low pressure systems will be converging somewhere in the East Coast. Most likely around NYC. CYCLOGENESIS will be insane! Enjoy all! Top Analogs are some big boys including 2007 and the superstorm of 93. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Decided to make a quick thread before I left. Looks like a possible Winter storm Warning criteria snowfall for all of NYS. 2 low pressure systems will be converging somewhere in the East Coast. Most likely around NYC. CYCLOGENESIS will be insane! Enjoy all! Top Analogs are some big boys including 2007 and the superstorm of 93. Yeah if this stays as is I could see all of upstate being under a WSW with 6-12" of snow region wide. Would be awesome! Have a safe and fun trip. I'll take lots of pictures for ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Yeah if this stays as is I could see all of upstate being under a WSW with 6-12" of snow region wide. Would be awesome! Have a safe and fun trip. I'll take lots of pictures for ya! Thanks Devin! Hopefully all of NYS gets a foot+. The potential of this storm is unreal. The thing bottoms out sub 980 MB somewhere between NYC and Maine. Going to be an insane storm for almost the entire east coast. Should be a Classic Miller B. I'll go out and say someone gets 40" out of this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 First 2 analogs are the v-day and 93'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 2 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: First 2 analogs are the v-day and 93'! Just about as good as you can get for our area, especially Central NYS. The V day storm has a much higher % of similarities at 13.28% vs 12.67% for 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Just about as good as you can get for our area, especially Central NYS. Without a doubt! I'd still switch with you in a NY minute! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Just about as good as you can get for our area, especially Central NYS. Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Just about as good as you can get for our area, especially Central NYS. Let's do some preliminary guesses across upstate. KBUF - 7" KROC - 11" KSYR - 12" KBGM - 16" KART - 11" KALB - 13" if if I forgot any feel free to add them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Man I know it's the NAM but the 12z just obliterates all of Upstate with a widespread 1-2 feet... if only lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 Pretty good totals from Huron/Ontario overnight. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF&format=ci&version=1 Akron and Clarence half a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I wanna see it rain throughout SNE while we snow for days, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said: Let's do some preliminary guesses across upstate. KBUF - 7" KROC - 11" KSYR - 12" KBGM - 16" KART - 11" KALB - 13" if if I forgot any feel free to add them! KBUF- 9" KROC-15" KSYR- 17" KBGM- 10" (I think they dryslot) KART- 12" KALB- 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 New NAM brings some pretty heavy totals into areas from Elmira/Rochester/Syracuse/Glens Falls and all points southeast....verbatim, probably see max snow totals of 2-3' somewhere in the Catskills and/or the hills of CNY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 NAM sure does. Intense 2" to 4" per hour snowfall rates Tuesday morning. Wraparound Tuesday night and Wednesday could push some areas to 3'. We pray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, LakeEffectKing said: New NAM brings some pretty heavy totals into areas from Elmira/Rochester/Syracuse/Glens Falls and all points southeast....verbatim, probably see max snow totals of 2-3' somewhere in the Catskills and/or the hills of CNY... What can go wrong George? Everything seems to be in place except the SW responsible wont be ashore till this evening so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 Definitely some dry slot potential somewhere between the transfers. The main dog is the strong coastal that is taking over, the secondary jackpot is the deformation zone on the northwest quadrant. Wherever that sets up will get some big totals too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, LakeEffectKing said: New NAM brings some pretty heavy totals into areas from Elmira/Rochester/Syracuse/Glens Falls and all points southeast....verbatim, probably see max snow totals of 2-3' somewhere in the Catskills and/or the hills of CNY... George, why do you think the 12z run was so juiced compared to the 6z run? Not that it matters cause it's the NAM outside of 24 hours so it means nothing what so ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Let's not forget the usual 50 miles NW jog at the last minute for these synoptic storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 I have a feeling it's going to be a 90 corridor special (BUF-ROC-SYR).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Quote Models are also showing plentiful Atlantic moisture being advected westward over our region as the low shifts to our east. Plenty of cold air will be in place and will also be reinforce by northerly cold advection to bring an increasing probability and confidence for several inches of accumulating snowfall. Further supporting this increased confidence are the mean COOP snowfall amounts from the 00z Top 15 CIPS analogs ranging from 8-12 inches across our forecast area. The 90% percentile of these analogs while having a very low chance of occuring at least looking at the storm from this far out shows a very healthy 2+ foot fall across much of New York. The storm is still 3 days away leaving plenty of time for models to shift the track and storm intensity. Have added mention of this storm to the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Stay Tuned to future forecast updates through this weekend. Outside of the snow, temperatures Monday night into Tuesday and Tuesday night will remain below normal with lows dipping into the teens and highs on Tuesday again only rising into the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 my new Avatar as promised, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 9 minutes ago, CNY-WXFREAK said: my new Avatar as promised, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: glad you approve, lol, all for fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 11, 2017 Author Share Posted March 11, 2017 GFS is a little bit East of last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS is a little bit East of last few runs. just noise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: GFS is a little bit East of last few runs. Totals are a little higher than 6z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-WXFREAK Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 If we can manage to get a foot, then ill be happy. Dont need 2' to be a good event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 12z GFS cuts snowfall in the Albany area in half from the 0Z. Annoying little model run that it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Anyone know why the GFS seems to halt northward progression of precip shield. Seems to hit a wall. Downsloping? Dry air? I remember the infamous Dec. 1992 storm where we were supposed to get 2' and we got maybe 6" from storm itself due to downsloping off the Catskills. LE made up for a bit of the low totals later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 12z actually favors W/CNY. BUF to ROC jackpots with 1'+ with pretty high ratios. Speaking of ratios anyone know what they'll look like with this storm? I'd imagine with how cold it will be we'll probably see some 15:1-20:1 ratios across much of upstate? So even .75" -1" QPF could easily mean 1'+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 11, 2017 Share Posted March 11, 2017 Unfortunately for the capital district, I will be there this week for work. My track record for being in a jackpot area for big storms is not good. The few exceptions was VD2.0 here and the two back to back 20+" snowstorms, Xmas and a week later, near Albany back in 2001 or 02. Otherwise I tend to be in localized minima areas, or completely shafted like March 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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