wolfie09 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 last 1 before hitting the hay, 3k nam precip/sim radar.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 12z GFS same as 6z. Maybe drier for north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 3:58 PM, rochesterdave said: 12z GFS same as 6z. Maybe drier for north. Expand Depending on Euro think most of W/CNY will go advisory not warning. Yeah we may see 8-10" but drawn out over 2 days. Yawn... bring back the 70s and sunshine. Congrats SNE! The new snow capital of the east. Maybe I should have stayed in RI, where I think this storm will make them surpass seasonal snowfall total I have here in Amherst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Yup GFS continues to be a crapper for more than a few runs now. 6-12" over a 36-48 hour period is just a nuisance event any more. That said it would be enough to put BGM over the 100 mark for season so I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 4:09 PM, BGM Blizzard said: Yup GFS continues to be a crapper for more than a few runs now. 6-12" over a 36-48 hour period is just a nuisance event any more. That said it would be enough to put BGM over the 100 mark for season so I'll take it. Expand Are the GFS 12z ensembles as bad as the operational? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 New Canadian inched a bit west and hugs coast line from Hatteras to LI. Yes please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 2:45 PM, DeltaT13 said: These further East solutions still offer the southern shore counties some hope on the backend. Long duration, very cold, and ample synoptic moisture. I think we get bailed out by Lake Ontario. Expand How far inland though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 4:41 PM, ayuud11 said: How far inland though? Expand I would think just in the counties bordering Lake Ontario...Niagara to Southern Oswego. My thinking at this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Ukmet pretty far west and super strong. Foot plus everyone I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 What happened to the GFS, lol? Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 I'll sign up for that UKMet solution please. Foreign guidance has been kind out this way today. If Euro stays the course from last night, I'll be more confident in reaching warning criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Yeah UK is very similar track to Canadian but is not as tightly wrapped up with the qpf. GFS becoming an eastern outlier pending what the 12z Euro says... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 KBUF upped WSW totals along the S Shore from 7-15 to 9-17...hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 NWS buf has been bullish on this thing all along. I wonder how they are explaining away the GFS with 3-4" in spots they have as 9-17"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 They must be confident in significant lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Or that the GFS is an outlier which could very well be case if Euro is similar or better than 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 UK qpf tw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Would like to believe the UK run - would be more believable if EC came in west as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Sucks the models don't come out for an hour later because the clocks went forward last night.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Ukie gives roc about 1 1.25. Just like euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Couple issues we can be grateful to not have to grapple with: precip type, general idea, lake enhancement concerns: qpf, track, trough and its vorticity/ support (too far SW?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 The German model taken from New England thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Never heard of the German model...how's it typically perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 5:39 PM, vortmax said: Never heard of the German model...how's it typically perform. Expand Lol... no idea. Never seen it posted until a day or 2 ago. Maybe this storm can be the beta-test Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Euro coming much stronger and maybe a tad west of 0z. Down to 977mb off the S NJ coast. Looks similar to the Canadian. Capital District is crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Through 18z Wednesday... .8 for SYR/Oswego vicinity. Everywhere else is 1.0 or better, with 1.25-1.50 from BGM to UCA to GFL and points south and east, then 1.5+ across Catskills and south through the lower HRV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Keep in mind, this is kuchera method. And thru 84. Let me know if I can't post this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Everything light colored is over a foot. Rochester with 20" for example. I don't like kuchera but this will be fluffy snow. 10:1 gives Rochester 12-14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 Dave when does it stop snowing on euro run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 12, 2017 Share Posted March 12, 2017 On 3/12/2017 at 6:16 PM, rochesterdave said: Keep in mind, this is kuchera method. And thru 84. Let me know if I can't post this. Expand Why the fk does it look like it's going east on tropicaltidbits? that's a nice hit there.. On 3/12/2017 at 5:24 PM, WesterlyWx said: Sucks the models don't come out for an hour later because the clocks went forward last night.. Expand Tell me about it lmao.. On 3/12/2017 at 4:46 PM, WesterlyWx said: I would think just in the counties bordering Lake Ontario...Niagara to Southern Oswego. My thinking at this time... Expand I have a feeling its going to come as far inland as the city but that's me just being optimistic lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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