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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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DomNH

DomNH

Posted
Posted

I agree about the widespread 24''+ being really difficult. This is like a 12-14 hour duration and having an average of 2''/hr is probably not going to happen in a large area. Hate to say it since Noyes has that swath right over my head, but I think 12-20'' is the right call. That's a 1-1.5''/hr average give or take. Massive hit. 

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bboughton

bboughton

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2 minutes ago, DomNH said:

I agree about the widespread 24''+ being really difficult. This is like a 12-14 hour duration and having an average of 2''/hr is probably not going to happen in a large area. Hate to say it since Noyes has that swath right over my head, but I think 12-20'' is the right call. That's a 1-1.5''/hr average give or take. Massive hit. 

He's saying average of 2-4"/hr

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

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Just now, DomNH said:

No doubt we see 2-4''/hr rates - probably for a couple hours - but I have a hard time thinking that they're sustained long enough for 24''+. 

I mean it's extremely hard to sustain 2+ inches an hour for longer than a 3 or 4 hour window. Even the 6" in an hour report from earlier this winter in York County, we could only maintain those 2+ rates for 3 hours.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Even though that H7 low position on the GFS is brutal if you look at how it sets up you really have a warm front at H7 that stretches across all of SNE which really keeps the goods in place even though that low position in NY makes me want to barf. 

One thing that a lot of the models show around here is drying off the DGZ - so we probably won't manage much fluff. 

GFSNE_700_rhum_033.png

GFSNE_700_temp_033.png

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DomNH

DomNH

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4 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I mean it's extremely hard to sustain 2+ inches an hour for longer than a 3 or 4 hour window. Even the 6" in an hour report from earlier this winter in York County, we could only maintain those 2+ rates for 3 hours.

Yeah agreed. Matt Noyes GW unless he's thinking better than 10:1 in the interior. I'm not really seeing it. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You can sense the uneasiness in here until the Euro comes out.....................:lol:

I doubt it will look too different...it was pretty damned amped at 00z...I would be surprised if it went west again by more than an academic shift of like 10 miles.

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dryslot

dryslot

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I doubt it will look too different...it was pretty damned amped at 00z...I would be surprised if it went west again by more than an academic shift of like 10 miles.

At this juncture, Its just going to subtle nuances, Track area is pretty set.

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