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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

24-30 wouldn't shock me either...I just wouldn't forecast it. We've seen those amounts before in 10-12 hour storms....2/5/01, 12/25/02 (NW of ALB had like 30 inches in 12 hours), Feb 2006, etc.

I certainly wouldn't,  But it would not be widespread like Noyes has it, I could see someone in the higher elevations able to do it though.

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ok yeah true...I do like ALB's CWA for something crazy honestly...like lower Hudson River Valley region up into the Berks and SVT/SNH.

I just think on the whole this thing will be trucking along. 

I guess the question is are these model QPF amounts right (like you were musing, is it 0.25-0.3" an hour or is it more like 0.17") in the  warm conveyor belt. 

Also snow growth is always a wildcard.  Snow growth gets good then even reduced QPF will go big with snow totals.

I'm not the first to say it but I think Mitch could have a jackpot on his hands at his Woodford plot.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I certainly wouldn't,  But it would not be widespread like Noyes has it, I could see someone in the higher elevations able to do it though.

I didn't listen to him, but I'm guessing he's banking on some CF enhancement? This looks like something where AFN/Rindge/Temple/NewIpswich clean up.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

Now that we enter the meso/hi-res guidance horizons I just hope we all don't go GGW with QPF. 

We have a QPF tool that will basically take the highest QPF amount and match it to the mean area of the highest QPF from the selected blend of models. That way you don't average out the peak QPF. Of course with mesos dropping in yesterday, I got huge areas of 1.5+ in 6 hours. 2/3 rule is probably a safe way to play it.

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bristolri_wx

bristolri_wx

Posted
Posted

This is going to be a decent/good storm for everyone west of the canal, and an epic one from say Hartford/Worcester and points north.  There's such a huge front end of snow that even mix/rain areas should get a good 9-12" before the change over.  At least that's how I'm seeing it down here in East Bay, RI.

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SR Airglow

SR Airglow

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Looks like another western/warmer tick overall for the 12Z suite on most. Seriously concerned about mixing here now, huge dump before that though.

Eh, I think you're safe. You might mix for the last 5% of the QPF but you're good for 15" easy I think.

 

Our tentative thoughts are 18"+ NW, 12-18" for the rest of the state with 8-14" in the SE corner, all pending the Euro and 18z suite. If we tick west again at 18z I may do another haircut but right now I'm comfortable with that. I've got the final tonight so this should be a fun one to write.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It already has. 

Nam

Ukie

Rgem

and GFS stayed same

Rgem went west...so did GGEM. Ukie ticked east, but it was up Ginxy's fanny on the 00z, so that isn't a huge surprise. NAM sort of ticked east...it tried to tuck back at the last second but it was def east to our south. I'm not sure we can really say much about the 12z suite so far in terms of trends.

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