March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[OceanStWx]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah that's why I was thinking the GFS was too low with QPF to the north and west.  Its very tilted with height.

 

Interesting the wind field says far interior 700 track, heights say over PWM.

Either way, when those mid levels start deepening someone in the Conway area would be getting some hefty rates.

[Ginx snewx]

9 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

All those model ticks overnight and not one "Congrats Dendrite!"

It's interesting that the GFS is so sloped with the low. Surface over ACK, 850 mb over or just NW of the Canal, 700 mb way NW through the interior. But that suggests strengthening through the area, as it hasn't stacked and occluded yet.

 Berks Maine NH VT big big snows with upslope after too, major ski industry boost with a decidedly wintry period for a while 

[powderfreak]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I was surprised and disappointed at the west nudge, but hopefully an east nudge for you guys and home.

Get out.

[RI Rob]

8-14 for Boston Metro seems safe?

[weathafella]

25 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Tropical Tidbits and WXbell are the same, what are you looking at?

The model output. 

[powderfreak]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

Interesting the wind field says far interior 700 track, heights say over PWM.

Either way, when those mid levels start deepening someone in the Conway area would be getting some hefty rates.

Yeah I saw Litchfield to PWM for H7 tracks.

[BRSno]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Went from the West posters to the East ones

Time to change the thread title "E/SE Weenies...." 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Get out.

You'll be Pony-O deep in powder.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, RI Rob said:

8-14 for Boston Metro seems safe?

Looks more like 12-16"

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

The model output. 

? ok thanks, but where and what parameters?

[OceanStWx]

The hi-res guidance (HRRR, NCAR, etc) all showing 18-24" for ORH Hills into the Monadnocks by 8 pm tomorrow. Probably a little too juicy on the QPF, but gives you an idea anyway.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, RI Rob said:

8-14 for Boston Metro seems safe?

Eh..... probably lower end of that... but could clear 8" for sure

[WintersComing]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah I saw Litchfield to PWM for H7 tracks.

Quick question....map do you look at to see the H7 and track?

[CoastalWx]

The highest impact between wind and man snow certainly seems east. That insane amount of snow in 4-6 hrs with the wind is going make things pretty nasty.

[weathafella]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

? ok thanks, but where and what parameters?

Low track and 2m temperatures.

[BRSno]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Looks more like 12-16"

You think we manage that much before the change/dryslot? Are you considering high ration stuff at first, or just insane dumpage for a few hours that gets us there? Either way, lock it in 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Any mets want to give a guess for interior SE Mass? Seems like this is the real area of uncertainty 

[powderfreak]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

You'll be Pony-O deep in powder.

Ha yeah I'm totally joking.

I think everyone does well.  Even those that mix will get 10"+ of front-ender IF it even mixes at all.

This will be one of the more widespread winter storms the northeast has seen in a long time in terms of its reach of 6"+ snowfall. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

The hi-res guidance (HRRR, NCAR, etc) all showing 18-24" for ORH Hills into the Monadnocks by 8 pm tomorrow. Probably a little too juicy on the QPF, but gives you an idea anyway.

Lol.

 

What does it show for BOS?

[powderfreak]

Just now, db306 said:

Quick question....map do you look at to see the H7 and track?

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVNEAST_12z/avneastloop.html

This is an easy one to look at...graphics are older but very easy to see the 700mb level with everything else.

[ORH_wxman]

Looks like Adolf takes it near or just west of CHH...waiting on Napoleon.

[powderfreak]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

The hi-res guidance (HRRR, NCAR, etc) all showing 18-24" for ORH Hills into the Monadnocks by 8 pm tomorrow. Probably a little too juicy on the QPF, but gives you an idea anyway.

The 3km and 4km models should be fun once they get into range.

They love to go gang-busters with precip when you add the wind, orographics and on-shore flow.

Bet they'll start printing some like 2-3" QPF amounts in like 12 hours, lol.

[HoarfrostHubb]

11 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

We won't be though.  I'll be teetering on the railing on the 190 bridge over the stillwater river.

Please tell me you aren't serious

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, BRSno said:

You think we manage that much before the change/dryslot? Are you considering high ration stuff at first, or just insane dumpage for a few hours that gets us there? Either way, lock it in 

I'd say about 90% of what fall will be snow in the BOS Metro area points N & W.

[Damage In Tolland]

Noyes goes ballz deep

http://

[FSUIZZY]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Eh..... probably lower end of that... but could clear 8" for sure

Eh..... higher end of that... but could clear 14" for sure.  

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Looks like Adolf takes it near or just west of CHH...waiting on Napoleon.

Where did Adolf have it at 6z/0z? 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Ha yeah I'm totally joking.

I think everyone does well.  Even those that mix will get 10"+ of front-ender IF it even mixes at all.

This will be one of the more widespread winter storms the northeast has seen in a long time in terms of its reach of 6"+ snowfall. 

Yeah this is a good one for all. Finally. I'm happy for the interior. Big storm droughts are a curse. The worst. Congrats to those that have been left out.

[78Blizzard]

Most on air mets still have big amounts with mixing getting up to or just west of Boston for a short time, then swinging back to snow.

[eekuasepinniW]

Congrats eekuasepinniW