March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[WinterWolf]

Well the RGEM shows as much liquid as the NAM...should we lob of a 1/3 of that too?  Is The RGEM usually that juiced?

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

I don't like this dryslot that's been showing up for us in Central MA, we toss. 

It's coming

[WintersComing]

GFS starting to roll out now.....lets see what additional confusion that can cause lol

[DomNH]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

It's coming

Yeah if we're going to rip an H7 low over MPM's head it's going to happen. 

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

If you're using TT it counts sleet.  I don't think PW does.

That posted map is PW per the stamp.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, dendrite said:

It's coming

Subsidence hell.

[ORH_wxman]

GFS is rolling now...we already know it will be NW of 06z...but the question is how much.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is rolling now...we already know it will be NW of 06z...but the question is how much.

Not a surprise, Just seems to be ticking slowly back towards the west ea run.

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well the RGEM shows as much liquid as the NAM...should we lob of a 1/3 of that too?  Is The RGEM usually that juiced?

Everything's been ticking wetter over the last day. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, weathafella said:

That posted map is PW per the stamp.

And?  Elaborate on what you're seeing and from what site.  I assume you were seeing higher totals from TT that included sleet.

[correnjim1]

when do they drop my watches and warnings

[moneypitmike]

6 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

I don't like this dryslot that's been showing up for us in Central MA, we toss. 

Shades of the hell that Boxing Day was out here.  It kept showing up like a zit on prom night.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, correnjim1 said:

when do they drop my watches and warnings

LOL

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

And?  Elaborate on what you're seeing and from what site.  I assume you were seeing higher totals from TT that included sleet.

No.  I'm seeing a relatively short snow period with above freezing temps for a lot of EMA so that snow map doesn't match.  Working. And posting by phone so that's the best I can give you now.

[sankaty]

To me GFS looks pretty similar to 06z through 24 hours.  Maybe slightly NW, but mostly just a tic faster.

[Hoth]

Wow at hr 30.

[ORH_wxman]

GFS being pretty stubborn through 24 hours...not really west...maybe like a razor width. It's stronger though.

[HoarfrostHubb]

11 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I just envision a freight train hitting a concrete bunker.  This is a really good antecedent airmass for the time of year and we have a strong southern stream riding up into it.  Radar will be impressive.

Great analogy    It will go boom for many for a good chunk of time

[weathafella]

GFS keeps me snow and brings the low out over ACK or elbow.

[dryslot]

12z GFS, Not very much different from the 06z run

[BRSno]

GFS would be the best case scenario at this point, not that it adds much confidence since it seems to always be late to the game. 

How much weight do we put on ensembles at this point? 

[HoarfrostHubb]

6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Shades of the hell that Boxing Day was out here.  It kept showing up like a zit on prom night.

You will be fine

[SR Airglow]

It actually looked a tick east to me at 30. Basically an all snow solution BOS-PVD corridor and NW.

[wxsniss]

Globals vs. Regionals... let's hope Euro holds too

[powderfreak]

GFS is right where you want it.  SE bias

[weathafella]

Just now, dryslot said:

12z GFS, Not very much different from the 06z run

Agree.  Would love to see the other globals go this way to increase some confidence.

[dendrite]

Looks like it goes over MVY.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Canal runner at the surface on the GFS

[sankaty]

The 6-hour period ending at 30hr is insane over CT on the GFS.  About 1.25" QPF in that period.

[subdude]

Dry Slot Central.