March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[SR Airglow]

2 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

which run of what? NAM? RGEM?

NAM looks like it turns RI SE MA and SE CT over. Don't see it turning most of SNE over.

Haven't seen the RGEM

12z RGEM.

[WinterWolf]

NAM looked great back this way.   Waiting on the Euro to see how it goes?

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, RI Rob said:

Well this is turning out to be a bit of a dud.

One person's trash is another person's treasure.

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

While RGEM taints, it's a snow blitz.  Man what a thump.  Still 12"+ for most.

Yeah the maps seem to show more than expected, if you just look at the hourly maps. The rates will be insane, but disappointed that the duration keeps dwindling a bit. 

[moneypitmike]

PF's picnic tables are invisible beneath the feet of snow on the RGEM.

[DomNH]

6 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

While RGEM taints, it's a snow blitz.  Man what a thump.  Still 12"+ for most.

Yeah I was just going to post this. Still an easy 12''+ front-ender for lots of those who taint and a 12-18'' then dryslot for those who don't. 

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

One person's trash is another person's treasure.

Chicken, Its what for dinner.

[butterfish55]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

While RGEM taints, it's a snow blitz.  Man what a thump.  Still 12"+ for most.

Voice of reason says "what"?

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

One person's trash is another person's treasure.

Dud huh, lol geezus

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Either globals are more trustworthy than NAM/RGEM models even at 30 hours, or we are toast Jerry

We could be!   It's almost funny actually.

[J Paul Gordon]

Just now, SR Airglow said:

12z RGEM.

Not going into panic mode on that one. Basically model madness time. There has been a fair "consensus" (using the term broadly) that this baby is going to go close to the canal give of take a few miles (elbow=east; narragansett bay-->pym= west). Still expecting that barring a major change in the globals. 

But, I'm no met and I don't know what a major amp up might mean in terms of rain/snow line, taint.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

While RGEM taints, it's a snow blitz.  Man what a thump.  Still 12"+ for most.

The WCB on some of these runs is almost not believable...like 4 inches per hour stuff for 3 hours....I know it's plausible, but it's hard to actually think that will happen.

[powderfreak]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

PF's picnic tables are invisible beneath the feet of snow on the RGEM.

F'in nuts.

I can't remember the last time I got more than 1.2" QPF in a winter storm...much less even had one modeled a day out.

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Dud huh, lol geezus

and still plenty to go up here in Dover NH I'd think

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Dud huh, lol geezus

Still going here at that point.

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Dud huh, lol geezus

Hell of a front end thump if that's despite CT flipping to rain.

[HinghamBoss]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Dud huh, lol geezus

I dunno, as someone who lives in a supposed "screw zone" with potential taint down in Hingham, I'd be perfectly happy getting 10-12."  That's a solid storm and gravy when you consider I was walking around the playground with my kids, looking at a bare ground and not wearing a jacket last Wednesday.

Great to see points north and west of the recent SNE snow capital otherwise known as the South Shore get in on the action!

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The WCB on some of these runs is almost not believable...like 4 inches per hour stuff for 3 hours....I know it's plausible, but it's hard to actually think that will happen.

Too many models have it. I guess it's time to start believing it. There will be some sick hourly precip totals from the ASOS sites with the weighing gauges...P0030 type obs if the models are correct.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Dud huh, lol geezus

What model is that?  RGEM?  I mean if that's a dud...I'll take my 18 inches and then it can dryslot or drizzle or sleet....or.....

 

I understand for SE areas..it's not the greatest..so maybe that's where the dud ideas are coming from?

[Hoth]

Think that's the most juiced that model has been so far.

[DomNH]

I also agree with Will that we should wait on the globals plowing this through Brockton before hand-wringing about the NAM and RGEM. Wouldn't be surprising if they're overdone. Split the difference between the NAM/RGEM and the GFS/Euro and most are happy. 

[weathafella]

That snow map doesn't match what I'm seeing for mby and Boston on other RGEM printouts.   Which of you weenies messed with the code at Pivotal?

[powderfreak]

Just now, dendrite said:

Too many models have it. I guess it's time to start believing it. There will be some sick hourly precip totals from the ASOS sites with the weighing gauges...P0030 type obs if the models are correct.

Yeah not every single model can be that wrong on it.  You'll be dropping 0.75" QPF in 3-hours over a big area. 

The type of stuff where life in SNE just comes to a complete halt during it.

[Baroclinic Zone]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The WCB on some of these runs is almost not believable...like 4 inches per hour stuff for 3 hours....I know it's plausible, but it's hard to actually think that will happen.

I just envision a freight train hitting a concrete bunker.  This is a really good antecedent airmass for the time of year and we have a strong southern stream riding up into it.  Radar will be impressive.

[Whineminster]

I don't like this dryslot that's been showing up for us in Central MA, we toss. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Still going here at that point.

Yea i tried to upload but server error

[BRSno]

12z RGEM @ 36h

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, weathafella said:

That snow map doesn't match what I'm seeing for mby and Boston on other RGEM printouts.   Which of you weenies messed with the code at Pivotal?

If you're using TT it counts sleet.  I don't think PW does.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Too many models have it. I guess it's time to start believing it. There will be some sick hourly precip totals from the ASOS sites with the weighing gauges...P0030 type obs if the models are correct.

Oh I know it's gonna be crazy, but I'm wondering if it's still somewhat overdone. Like these are 3 hourly rates near an inch of QPF. I wonder if it ends up being more like 0.17 per hour stuff. I dunno, still got time to figure that out.

[dryslot]

9 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Still going here at that point.

 

4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea i tried to upload but server error

The board is slow