March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

You're playing the DIT reverse psychology game...I like it! You may get your long awaited hugger finally. Sometimes you just need to change tactics.

Still expecting the other shoe to drop.

 

[MarkO]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I did.

I also expected an amped trend, which is why if you look at my first call  map from Friday night, I have the heaviest in the Berkshires and VT/NH.

I still do not think we rain, and there is any sleet, it will be towards the end and will be largely inconsequential.

 

Struggling to grasp your point-

Well we'll see what happens. I was at the UML hockey game Friday night so I didn't see what you wrote. It might end up being a situation where NW 495 stays all snow and you mix for a time. I agree with your other post that you'd rather mix/change than deal with subsidence. 

My point was why wasn't anyone tossing caution flags regarding Ptype 3+/- days out with a GFS track essentially over the cape. Folks were saying stuff about antecedent cold, High pressure locations over Maine (or Quebec?) and essentially experience, but we all know ultimately it comes down to track. 

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You been sitting back rocking in your chair ea run, Admit it................

Today I am haha.  This morning it was finally like, hey this might just happen.  No fukkin sh*t.

[ORH_wxman]

RGEM looks like ti takes the low from GON to BOS.

[adk]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Today I am haha.  This morning it was finally like, hey this might just happen.  No fukkin sh*t.

You are slowly convincing me. That's an accomplishment.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Today I am haha.  This morning it was finally like, hey this might just happen.  No fukkin sh*t.

At this point, I don't see anything that would flag a large shift to the east to take you out of the game unless guidance jumps to that vorticity offshore and tracks it further to the ENE, That's some decent backside snow over to you there.

[ORH_wxman]

RGEM actually changes most of CT over to rain and the eastern half of MA.

[J Paul Gordon]

19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017031312&fh=0&xpos=139&ypos=61

somewhere between the CC canal and the elbow from the looks of it

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM looks like ti takes the low from GON to BOS.

Tasty for those who have starved the last several years..

[wxsniss]

Yeah 12z RGEM did same thing 12z NAM does: hugs further west initially and looks like it will track into CT, but then shifts the SLP almost due east and ultimately tracks over southeast MA

[TalcottWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM looks like ti takes the low from GON to BOS.

Brutal

[weathafella]

RGEM taints well inland-495 or beyond 

[kevin1927]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM looks like ti takes the low from GON to BOS.

[Ginx snewx]

RGEM has 2-3 per hour for 8 hrs then cuts through CT with dry slot

[MarkO]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Today I am haha.  This morning it was finally like, hey this might just happen.  No fukkin sh*t.

Might have to change the title to :

March 14/15 E & SNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[SouthCoastMA]

The RGEM looks really tucked in. 2-3 hours or so of heavy snow down here, then rain. Disappointing end to this after tracking for over 5 days. Congrats to the deep interior

[Greg]

4 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Well we'll see what happens. I was at the UML hockey game Friday night so I didn't see what you wrote. It might end up being a situation where NW 495 stays all snow and you mix for a time. I agree with your other post that you'd rather mix/change than deal with subsidence. 

My point was why wasn't anyone tossing caution flags regarding Ptype 3+/- days out with a GFS track essentially over the cape. Folks were saying stuff about antecedent cold, High pressure locations over Maine (or Quebec?) and essentially experience, but we all know ultimately it comes down to track. 

GFS 3 days ago had this thing off shore for the most part then it very slowly starting bringing this center over the Cape elbow.

[wxsniss]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

RGEM taints well inland-495 or beyond 

Either globals are more trustworthy than NAM/RGEM models even at 30 hours, or we are toast Jerry

[sankaty]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM actually changes most of CT over to rain and the eastern half of MA.

Assuming the globals hold on to a colder solution, are you more inclined to trust globals or regional models at this point?

[SR Airglow]

That's an ugly look for most of SNE if you were hoping to stay all snow. Basically all of SNE except far NWCT and the Berks taint on that run. This is looking like one crazy burst of snow and then some light rain for the afternoon - cool, but not the blockbuster some are advertising or what it had the potential to be.

[SR Airglow]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Either globals are more trustworthy than NAM/RGEM models even at 30 hours, or we are toast Jerry

I think we're toast unfortunately pending a miracle. Needed to see that shift east on the 12z suite for us to stay alive and we haven't seen it yet.

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Either globals are more trustworthy than NAM/RGEM models even at 30 hours, or we are toast Jerry

 

Well, we'll get a look at whether it's meso vs. global or just a more aggressive look.

 

I'm happy. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, sankaty said:

Assuming the globals hold on to a colder solution, are you more inclined to trust globals or regional models at this point?

Prob globals for now...but we'll see what the Euro does. With nuanced setups, I think that is where the Euro should really shine. On the other hand, the mesos might be onto something with the high convection in this setup.

[RI Rob]

Well this is turning out to be a bit of a dud.

[dryslot]

I would wait for the GFS/Euro before swan diving off the tobin.

[J Paul Gordon]

1 minute ago, SR Airglow said:

That's an ugly look for most of SNE if you were hoping to stay all snow. Basically all of SNE except far NWCT and the Berks taint on that run. This is looking like one crazy burst of snow and then some light rain for the afternoon - cool, but not the blockbuster some are advertising or what it had the potential to be.

which run of what? NAM? RGEM?

NAM looks like it turns RI SE MA and SE CT over. Don't see it turning most of SNE over.

Haven't seen the RGEM

[MarkO]

2 minutes ago, Greg said:

GFS 3 days ago had this thing off shore for the most part then it very slowly starting bringing this center over the Cape elbow.

Well even where the track was, it was showing precip issues Boston S&E and up on Cape Ann as well. I mentioned a 50 mile track west would put me in the mix which is pretty much where we're at. Hopefully the trend doesn't continue.

[Baroclinic Zone]

While RGEM taints, it's a snow blitz.  Man what a thump.  Still 12"+ for most.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM actually changes most of CT over to rain and the eastern half of MA.

No surprise there

[Hoth]

Thank God RGEM has consistently sucked this winter. Tossed.