March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[moneypitmike]

LOL at the NAM 4k snow map--congrats Lakeville, CT with the 25" spot.

Can anyone see where the h7 tracks?

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Interesting. NAM/RGEM (I know RGEM a little out of it's range) are clustering pretty tight and change Boston over.

Need a last night's Euro track to keep it all snow, but given the over-amping trends I'm not confident.

My hope is that there is still some mishandling of the vorticity off New Jersey, and that little blip of 2nd further east low on NAM at hr 33 is a hint of ticking back east, but I'm not confident.

12z RGEM will be big.

 

Not so sure, Its not performed very well in quite a few events so far this winter.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, sankaty said:

Anyone have a good link for the parallel NAM?  Thanks.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017031312&fh=0&xpos=139&ypos=61

[Epicnova]

Still doesn't look like its gonna be memorable here, at least for me. For it to be memorable it would need to drop over 1' 

[BRSno]

PARA NAM looks ever so slightly better than the OP, or am I looking at it wrong? 

[Baroclinic Zone]

9 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

The NAM snow maps are god awful. Useless

Marginal areas will always be problematic.  One hr will make a huge difference here.

[Greg]

2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Interesting. NAM/RGEM (I know RGEM a little out of it's range) are clustering pretty tight and change Boston over.

Need a last night's Euro track to keep it all snow, but given the over-amping trends I'm not confident.

My hope is that there is still some mishandling of the vorticity off New Jersey, and that little blip of 2nd further east low on NAM at hr 33 is a hint of ticking back east, but I'm not confident.

12z RGEM will be big.

 

I think Will is correct!  The vortmax is not being quite as modeled right as it should be and of course the ULL/Great Lakes low is not being profiled as well.  It's either going to be neutral to positive and put this thing further east or it's going to be a slight negative tilt and bring this thing further west.  I just don't know which one to believe.

[DomNH]

4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

LOL at the NAM 4k snow map--congrats Lakeville, CT with the 25" spot.

Can anyone see where the h7 tracks?

Right about over your fanny.

[sankaty]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017031312&fh=0&xpos=139&ypos=61

Thanks!

I see that this is the 3K version.  Is there a 12K parallel, or is the 12K NAM getting replaced by the 3K parallel?

[weathafella]

10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Boston will change over

My question is wether there is mid level dry air in Merrimack valley

 

But what will they change to and how far inland does it come?  As the crow flies  about 3 miles inside 128.....maybe a tad less.

[wxsniss]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Not so sure, Its not performed very well in quite a few events so far this winter.

Agree, though we are entering 24 hours so hoping to get a sense of trends.

[Morch Madness]

3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

LOL at the NAM 4k snow map--congrats Lakeville, CT with the 25" spot.

Can anyone see where the h7 tracks?

 

Looks like it goes NYC -> W CT -> Berks

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Interesting. NAM/RGEM (I know RGEM a little out of it's range) are clustering pretty tight and change Boston over.

Need a last night's Euro track to keep it all snow, but given the over-amping trends I'm not confident.

My hope is that there is still some mishandling of the vorticity off New Jersey, and that little blip of 2nd further east low on NAM at hr 33 is a hint of ticking back east, but I'm not confident.

12z RGEM will be big.

 

I really don't trust the way guidance is handling that little vorticity ripple ahead of the main southern stream...if it was a larger feature, I'd be fine with it, but it's pretty nuanced. It is clearly being seen on all guidance but the 12z NAM just change it and while it still wrapped things up pretty close, you could see how it was initially east down south...so what happens if we see that same trend 12 hours from now but now it is displaced to the north since it's 12 hours later? I definitely wouldn't say toss that type of solution, but I think it is sometimes wise to have a certain amount of skepticism in unconventional setups.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Agree, though we are entering 24 hours so hoping to get a sense of trends.

It failed miserably on the clipper here last Friday, It was the only model that had 2.6" snow here and we got a coating.

[wxsniss]

20 minutes ago, weathafella said:

NAM 850s get to 2.3 at BOS

NAM para maxes 0.8.  

Para is the regular NAM in 2 days.  

Which one is right?

Yeah Jerry Para tracked further east compared to Op... looks like a canal track.

Not much buffer for our area, rest of the 12z suite will be critical.

[Morch Madness]

Gun to my head I think we do change over, but as Will said it's pretty close. I think we'll do fine either way, the front-ender means business

[WintersComing]

9 minutes ago, sankaty said:

Anyone have a good link for the parallel NAM?  Thanks.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam3km&p=refcmp_ptype&rh=2017031312&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt

[powderfreak]

Wow still holding onto the hugger tracks... this never happens.  You guys will get your East ticks today.

[Ginx snewx]

CT DHS email just received

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, db306 said:

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam3km&p=refcmp_ptype&rh=2017031312&fh=30&r=us_ne&dpdt

Thats the Hi res version, The para nam goes to hr 84

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, sankaty said:

Thanks!

I see that this is the 3K version.  Is there a 12K parallel, or is the 12K NAM getting replaced by the 3K parallel?

To my knowledge it's replacing the 12k later this week. I could be wrong, but from what I understand, this is the replacement 

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I really don't trust the way guidance is handling that little vorticity ripple ahead of the main southern stream...if it was a larger feature, I'd be fine with it, but it's pretty nuanced. It is clearly being seen on all guidance but the 12z NAM just change it and while it still wrapped things up pretty close, you could see how it was initially east down south...so what happens if we see that same trend 12 hours from now but now it is displaced to the north since it's 12 hours later? I definitely wouldn't say toss that type of solution, but I think it is sometimes wise to have a certain amount of skepticism in unconventional setups.

Yeah skepticism is necessary on anything that runs into land on a coastal track.

[weathafella]

That's the 3km.  The 12km para is the regular come Wednesday per JC.

[moneypitmike]

8 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Right about over your fanny.

 

7 minutes ago, Morch Madness said:

Looks like it goes NYC -> W CT -> Berks

Congrats Rick/Logan.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Wow still holding onto the hugger tracks... this never happens.  You guys will get your East ticks today.

 

Just now, powderfreak said:

Yeah skepticism is necessary on anything that runs into land on a coastal track.

You're playing the DIT reverse psychology game...I like it! You may get your long awaited hugger finally. Sometimes you just need to change tactics.

[wxsniss]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I really don't trust the way guidance is handling that little vorticity ripple ahead of the main southern stream...if it was a larger feature, I'd be fine with it, but it's pretty nuanced. It is clearly being seen on all guidance but the 12z NAM just change it and while it still wrapped things up pretty close, you could see how it was initially east down south...so what happens if we see that same trend 12 hours from now but now it is displaced to the north since it's 12 hours later? I definitely wouldn't say toss that type of solution, but I think it is sometimes wise to have a certain amount of skepticism in unconventional setups.

Absolutely, I've been harping on this vorticity handling uncertainty off New Jersey. On this 12z NAM it causes an initial further east track to track NNE and be more tucked by hour 30 (so that you'd expect a much further west track even compared to 6z), but then makes a hard right to ultimately clip southeast MA like 6z NAM did.

Strange evolution that I think reflects uncertainty about all those competing lobes of vorticity. 

I'd be more inclined to toss but the west ticks have been a consistent theme since 0z suite.

[Cold Miser]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017031312&fh=0&xpos=139&ypos=61

Good amount of Green for a good chunk of central/ eastern ct on most of those panels.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah skepticism is necessary on anything that runs into land on a coastal track.

You been sitting back rocking in your chair ea run, Admit it................

[ORH_wxman]

The RGEM is west of 06z at 24 hours...but interestingly it looks colder down south.

[wxsniss]

Tough call for BOX on blizzard warnings for areas east of 495 in MA. Hope the rest of 12z guidance clarifies in our favor of course.