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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I was in Westfield in 2001 when we got the 23-24" in 9 hours, so I've experienced the hefty amounts in short duration storms.  Obviously, it's much easier to accomplish with one that plods along.  This will certainly be longer than that one, but not by hours and hours.

We get the dynamics, you don't need a stall to see 3'.

Look at Boxing Day in Jersey....ask Earthlight about that one.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I think the goalposts at this point are probably something like a track over SE MA (maybe as far as BOS?) and something like benchmark. That would be my 90/10 intervals. Yeah there's prob some 95/5s outside that swath but o think we're tightening things up a bit. I think the Canal to ACK is prob a middle 50% ground. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think the goalposts at this point are probably something like a track over SE MA (maybe as far as BOS?) and something like benchmark. That would be my 90/10 intervals. Yeah there's prob some 95/5s outside that swath but o think we're tightening things up a bit. I think the Canal to ACK is prob a middle 50% ground. 

The EPS obviously has a solid mean for the entire area, but when it goes big on the snow totals it's pretty consistently NE MA or SE NH.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

The EPS obviously has a solid mean for the entire area, but when it goes big on the snow totals it's pretty consistently NE MA or SE NH.

Might be a sweet spot there for when that leading shortwave decides to "hook" the low back W just a tad and probably causes a brief stall and also some enhanced forcing. 

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40/70 Benchmark

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Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Might be a sweet spot there for when that leading shortwave decided to "hook" the low back W just a tad and probably causes a brief stall and also some enhanced forcing. 

I guess that the NYC area is owed to max rate of mid level deepening, and my area because of the stall/capture...

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Ensembles seem most sensitive to the Arctic shortwave that is set to drop into the northern stream. It's crossing into the Canadian Prairies now.

There is only one raob station in the area, but at 12z the Euro was higher heights with it vs. the GFS. Higher heights (i.e. weaker wave) had a tendency towards a more south and east surface low. The same was true of the GEFS, which probably explains the slightly further east low track (though the Euro hooks it in harder towards the end) since the GFS had a deeper shortwave in Canada.

I love when you drop the ens sensitivity info. 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I probably should play around with those sensitivity products...but they always take a little to get used to.  Sometimes they're pretty obvious about the areas where small changes mean the most, but in this case they can be beneficial.

They are one thing I brought home from my Saratoga IPA induced fog at the Storms Conference.

I wish we had a little more training on that stuff operationally here.

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