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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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NeonPeon

NeonPeon

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Sorry man, this is not your storm. Was talking more specifically for those in my state.

Yeah, I'd agree with you for that area. 

I'll still enjoy this storm, regardless.  This area often can find ways of staying out of the worst of the accumulation, but I think we'll get a taste of the fury, especially the wind.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Even if it's not us, there's going to be a wide swath of power outages. 

Looks like the NAM and GFS came west as well. With a canal crossing +/-, I think we're safe for the most part, but there's probably going to be a time we're pounding aggregates and areas inside 128 are pouring. This was my fear on Saturday, but I was ridiculed. Hopefully the models shift slightly east for those to our SE, but to be honest, for me, this is probably the best track. Pounds Lowell, and the cabin gets in on the action. Probably more up there due to density.

Who ridiculed you?  I think I disagreed and gave reasons but I don't recall ridiculing.

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sankaty

sankaty

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, ThatGirlWhoSkis said:

For those who ski...NWS just changed over in Vermont to a warning and Okemo area where I live just upgraded 12-18. Killington where I ski is talking 16-26. YES PLEASE!! :)

Heading up to the Okemo/Killington area on Thursday!  Looks like there could be even more snow over the weekend.

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justaroofer

justaroofer

Posted
Posted

been trying to catch up on the reading since last night.

We can only hope the snow will accumulate as fast as these posts have! Man, its like reading a novel.

Anyhow just wanted to hear perspectives on where most likely the dry slot parks itself and

what folks anticipate the qpf models to do from here on out?

less, more, or still don't know?

thanks

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DomNH

DomNH

Posted
Posted

Heard a local meteorologist on the radio this morning with a 2ft+ forecast for NRN ORH and SNH. I think I'd pump the brakes on that if the H7 low goes over MPM's head like it is on the NAM. That's a red flag for monster amounts (18''+) to me.  

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MarkO

MarkO

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Who ridiculed you?  I think I disagreed and gave reasons but I don't recall ridiculing.

Not you Jerry, but Ray did joke about a thermometer, and there were a few chuckles. But I get it. It's all good. I'm still learning. I think it's going to tick east as I rarely end up mixing, but I hope it ticks east for you and folks to your SE. 

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Not you Jerry, but Ray did joke about a thermometer, and there were a few chuckles. But I get it. It's all good. I'm still learning. I think it's going to tick east as I rarely end up mixing, but I hope it ticks east for you and folks to your SE. 

I hope it has overtrended but the front ender should be great no matter what.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, MarkO said:

Not you Jerry, but Ray did joke about a thermometer, and there were a few chuckles. But I get it. It's all good. I'm still learning. I think it's going to tick east as I rarely end up mixing, but I hope it ticks east for you and folks to your SE. 

I did.

I also expected an amped trend, which is why if you look at my first call  map from Friday night, I have the heaviest in the Berkshires and VT/NH.

I still do not think we rain, and there is any sleet, it will be towards the end and will be largely inconsequential.

 

Struggling to grasp your point-

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I think I'm good for my life quota on hearing the adjective "crush" describing snow amounts ... Every third post and it's "...Absolutely crushed" - okay... 

06z NAM had pounding sleet at BOS on the FRH grid (FOUS).  T5 soars to +3 C midway through the heaviest QPF ...which is a flip to a very tall IP column.  Heavy as hell, but IP. 

I still think this event has been shrunk in significance down below top tier - not that anyone thinks it still is, but... the failure to purer phase (like the Euro had three nights ago in the 'apex' run/version that was interestingly < 4.5 days at that time) and instead allowing it to be essentially done and backside flow by 10 hours or so doesn't cut it.  

It's a huge, powerful system... I'm just talking what it pulls off in the sensible weather department and actual physical impact on the surface. By modern day snow removal and other life-logistical standards, this shouldn't get out of control.   If for some reason a late minute/now-cast sort of correction toward a capture and stall takes place that is more proficient than recent cycles, that dialogue has more use in my mind.  

Having said that... because this system is large and powerful, and exotic with dynamics; I wouldn't rule out unexpected results and surprises. It'll be interesting to see what if any those are. 

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MarkO

MarkO

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I hope it has overtrended but the front ender should be great no matter what.

That's what I was thinking as well. I think I even mentioned the front end thump would be good for all, regardless of the track. Just real pumped this is another day storm to enjoy. Will be home with the wife and kids. Doesn't really get better than that. :D

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SouthCoastMA

SouthCoastMA

Posted
Posted
Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I'd expect box to continue to lower numbers for eastern ma... especially SE of Boston and PVD.

Unless there is an east jog today.... I think we're cooked here for anything noteworthy (>8)

I'm thinking 6-9" in a 3.5 hour thumpage. Should be fun in that window at least. I'm concerned about caked wet snow on trees/PowerLines followed by heavy rain/wind. Could be some serious outages down here

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ROOSTA

ROOSTA

Posted
Posted

Another useless unenergized post from me.
Understanding the emotional attachment to snow, snowfall, snow rates, depth really brings the best out of people. As if anyone had control over it.
Don't you friggin give MBY anything but Jack. Wow so you miss a 2 footer by 30 miles. Concentrating on that single tree you'll always miss the forest.
Over the years we have learned who the good posters are their style and tenor. The weenie gonna weenie. The backyard posts (this event no exception) meaning someone living in ALB is seeing a model run compared to a BOS poster both see the same but through the lens of the prism only to appease the person impact. 
Similar to partisanship not Country put Party. It's hard to detach the bias but try the age ole' saying of walk a mile in another mans shoes. Take what you receive, embrace the impact as a regional event. And yes enjoy for the jack even if it's not in YBY. Today it's them and your tomorrow is coming.
 

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justaroofer

justaroofer

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think I'm good for my life quota on hearing the adjective "crush" describing snow amounts ... Every third post and it's "...Absolutely crushed" - okay... 

06z NAM had pounding sleet at BOS on the FRH grid (FOUS).  T5 soars to +3 C midway through the heaviest QPF ...which is a flip to a very tall IP column.  Heavy as hell, but IP. 

I still think this event has been shrunk in significance down below top tier - not that anyone thinks it still is, but... the failure to purer phase (like the Euro had three nights ago in the 'apex' run/version that was interestingly < 4.5 days at that time) and instead allowing it to be essentially done and backside flow by 10 hours or so doesn't cut it.  

It's a huge, powerful system... I'm just talking what it pulls off in the sensible weather department and actual physical impact on the surface. By modern day snow removal and other life-logistical standards, this shouldn't get out of control.   If for some reason a late minute/now-cast sort of correction toward a capture and stall takes place that is more proficient than recent cycles, that dialogue has more use in my mind.  

Having said that... because this system is large and powerful, and exotic with dynamics; I wouldn't rule out unexpected results and surprises. It'll be interesting to see what if any those are. 

thanks Tip!

Understanding that the phase is not as pure as depicted a few days ago. I'm curious though if you still feel it is a relative possibility of this still correcting itself so close to game time. Meaning if you had to make a forecast now, would you blend that forecast in anticipation of a better capture?

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justaroofer

justaroofer

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, justaroofer said:

thanks Tip!

Understanding that the phase is not as pure as depicted a few days ago. I'm curious though if you still feel it is a relative possibility of this still correcting itself so close to game time. Meaning if you had to make a forecast now, would you blend that forecast in anticipation of a better capture?

Actually it would be interesting to get others opinions on that question.

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