Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,732
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    rhodywakefield
    Newest Member
    rhodywakefield
    Joined

March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Well the latest 6Z RPM is starting to settle back east vs the 3Z run, so that's something...takes the low track over MVY to the Canal vs. over E LI into SE RI and SE MA...

Look, I am no expert and not as bold as DIT when it comes to "what I envision" lol but guidance have a tendacy to over react and spazz out in faster flow complex phases. I have some minor concerns for CT but that is purely a rookie weenie "oh no every model isnt giving me 50" totals" so something must be up way of thinking. But as a professional and more mature weenie, stay the course dont jump with every cycle of runs. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
NeonPeon

NeonPeon

Posted
Posted

 

17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 stay the course dont jump with every cycle of runs. 

For everyone like me bemoaning taint... the general trend over the last two days has been for the Eastern edge of the envelope of solutions to come west.  It's not one cycle  and it may not be done, though there's a limit to how far it can go. It's also been a realistic worry this whole time, and also a pretty boilerplate worry for a region wide big noreaster in March. I'm not chewing my fingers, but im also not relishing looking out the window hallucinating the first flakes as the bay rains.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, this run would have big-time power implications in my zone.....most of that is wet snow.

This is what i was alluding to earlier. The track is 100 miles west versus 12z but the accum snowfall gradient isn't, bc the system is more phased and dynamic. The "inland" track was always only a problem for the SE section/quadrant of the subforum. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ApacheTrout

ApacheTrout

Posted
Posted

Kudos to the mets, physicists, programmers, and all those who make possible a forecast for a storm that simply doesn't exist in the atmosphere right now.  Very cool example of science in action, and a constant desire to understand the workings of our natural world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

 

For everyone like me bemoaning taint... the general trend over the last two days has been for the Eastern edge of the envelope of solutions to come west.  It's not one cycle  and it may not be done, though there's a limit to how far it can go. It's also been a realistic worry this whole time, and also a pretty boilerplate worry for a region wide big noreaster in March. I'm not chewing my fingers, but im also not relishing looking out the window hallucinating the first flakes as the bay rains.

Sorry man, this is not your storm. Was talking more specifically for those in my state.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said:

Kudos to the mets, physicists, programmers, and all those who make possible a forecast for a storm that simply doesn't exist in the atmosphere right now.  Very cool example of science in action, and a constant desire to understand the workings of our natural world.

Look at the water vapor loop and tell me it doesn't exist

Link to comment
Share on other sites
weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Kudos to all of you who are heading to work on 3 hours sleep-I salute you-that was me not long ago..lol

 

looking forward to a superstorm 93 style front ender which went west of my location but dropped a foot in 3 hours on the front end.   I also think models probably overcorrected and my original call for a canal track will verify.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Hoth

Hoth

Posted
Posted

Epic met battle in western CT. Wiz going with subsidence dominating and 6-10, Ryan going beefy 18-24. Who will win? J/k. Feel like models may have gotten touch overzealous last night. I actually agree with Kevin that we may see a little adjustment east, if not in the modeling, then in the actual storm's development. 700 low suggests LHV/Berks jack to me, but looking at imagery this morning, can't help but be stoked by the presentation of the moisture plume down in the Gulf. This sucker is gonna be juiced! Gonna be like a megaSWFE at onset. 24 hours left in the period folks, maybe less. Get some!

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Cold Miser

Cold Miser

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

 

For everyone like me bemoaning taint... the general trend over the last two days has been for the Eastern edge of the envelope of solutions to come west.  It's not one cycle  and it may not be done, though there's a limit to how far it can go. It's also been a realistic worry this whole time, and also a pretty boilerplate worry for a region wide big noreaster in March. I'm not chewing my fingers, but im also not relishing looking out the window hallucinating the first flakes as the bay rains.

5 years living in Bristol was tough with snow storms.  I feel for you, man.  I do remember one year where there was snow on the ground in Newport for the parade.  Probably 93.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

That it's impressive on the water vapor loop and you can tell a storm is coming.

You can be so cut and dry, you know what hes talking about....predicting future reactions in the atmosphere is a cool and very challenging phenomenom that is often overlooked esp by non weenies who dont understand the complexity of it all. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
S&P

S&P

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

5 years living in Bristol was tough with snow storms.  I feel for you, man.  I do remember one year where there was snow on the ground in Newport for the parade.  Probably 93.

yeah 93 was a hellacious 3 hours (on the parade day) with about 8" then a driving rainstorm. as fella said , that's about what i expect from this

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...