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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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Kevin W

Kevin W

Posted
Posted
Quote 

Snowfall Amounts...

The models have come into much better agreement over the last 24 to
48 hours, but small nuances are enough to make a significant
difference in the overall outcome in some locations.  Given the
overall synoptics and expected strong omega/frontogenesis...we are
quite confident in much of the region receiving 12 to 18 inches of
snow. While QPF may be less on some of the guidance in our western
zones...many models track the mid level low across eastern CT and up
through central MA.  Snowfall amounts are often underdone to the
northwest of this region in the mid level deformation zone/back.
bent mid level warm front.  The exact track this storm and its mid
level centers remains uncertain...but there certainly is a low risk
for isolated 20 to 24" in amounts.  Highest risk for this would
probably be northwest of the Boston to Providence corridor. Portions
of eastern MA/RI may have to contend with a mid level dry slot which
may cut down amounts for some of these locations.  However, models
still show some low level frontogenesis and assistance from a coastal
front that may result in another area of enhanced snowfall.

Sounds about right. Nothing I'm not used to after all these years.:lol:

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CT Valley Snowman

CT Valley Snowman

Posted
Posted

Might have to update some of these thread tags.  Better chance of Easterners jumping from the Tobin and far WNE and NNE in deform heaven.  I'm a bit nervous here now but hoping this trend doesn't continue and things settle down or tick back east.  Even a Euro/GFS 70/30 weighted blend would be good here. We need to see this trend come to a halt and not continue or things are going to get ugly.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
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1 hour ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

I still think HVN/TOL/ORH points NW is  12-24  lolis to 30 far NW CT and Berks.  Still could shift a bit either way hopefully the dramatic moves have already occured.

Seems like a lot of worry over not much really. As Will said..things likely over trended. We always see these things bump back east final 24. Shouldn't be any different this time. 

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

I still think HVN/TOL/ORH points NW is  12-24  lolis to 30 far NW CT and Berks.  Still could shift a bit either way hopefully the dramatic moves have already occured.

Methinks the only report that would come anywhere close to 30 would be from Lunenburg.

1 hour ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

EPS mean is now over MVY with a few members into SE CT but still looks like the biggest cluster is just east of the mean. 

EPS Storm.png

 

Is it worth spending time with the ensembles at this point?  IIRC correctly, folks typically just focus on the Ops at this point in time.  Unless the op doesn't show what you want of course.  :)

 

Hopefully this is done trending.  I'd like the h7 to come back east a tad.

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NeonPeon

NeonPeon

Posted
Posted

I'm expecting a sloppy mess rather than  epic paste.  Between more nw tracks, and worse rates, every overnight run has been poor for the sema/sri. We miss out on part of the thump with warmth, then dry slot.  If it isn't falling as hard due to dry slotting, any flip back will take a little longer and will struggle to accumulate for a bit.  I've no great confidence that this can't track closer to Narragansett bay either, rather than the canal. Hopefully that trend is at an end, but there's no reason why it has to be. Awesome for everyone else though. 

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