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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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Greg

Greg

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

I agree Ray

The thing I don't buy is rain to 495 on the 0z RGEM... even with a track over PYM I can't believe we see rain that far west.

Hard to shake the fear of a southern system amp and hug the coast more than expected, even in an overall progressive regime. I haven't look to see what RGEM is doing at H5. UK bump is unnerving, but it is going against a very good consensus of 18z+0z NAM / 0z GFS / 12z Euro / EPS of elbow/ACK track.

 

It goes like this right now, the Ukmet is obviously the most west solution, then the Regional Canadian, then the NAM, Euro of 12Z, and GFS.  The Euro tonight will be very important.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

that has been my reality on here for years!!!!!!!!!!!!!    

You will see me do many things that make me look like an a$$, but that will never be one of them.

We're all snow freaks...so why on earth it shouldn't be perceived as disheartening to measure 9" when a slight nuance prevented 17" is beyond me.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted

Just getting caught up. Was at the knicks nets high school game. At least I was in the VIP Honda club getting fed a full plate of weenies with my feet up. 

My top 5 totals in my weenie book are:

Jan 96 - 26-28"

Jan 11 - 25"

Dec 10 - 24"

Feb 03 - 22"

Feb 06 - 21"

I think this has a chance to nudge in there. Everything has to break right though. 

Lets do this!

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codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You will see me do many things that make me look like an a$$, but that will never be one of them.

We're all snow freaks...so why on earth it shouldn't be perceived as disheartening to measure 9" when a slight nuance prevented 17" is beyond me.

 

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Just getting caught up. Was at the knicks nets high school game. At least I was in the VIP Honda club getting fed a full plate of weenies with my feet up. 

My top 5 totals in my weenie book are:

Jan 96 - 26-28"

Jan 11 - 25"

Dec 10 - 24"

Feb 03 - 22"

I think this has a chance to nudge in there. Everything has to break right though. 

Lets do this!

you had two feet in boxing day? omg

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted

 

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You will see me do many things that make me look like an a$$, but that will never be one of them.

We're all snow freaks...so why on earth it shouldn't be perceived as disheartening to measure 9" when a slight nuance prevented 17" is beyond me.

I lost in Jan 15, its deflating...no way to sugar coat it. When youre favored to win the hand by a huge margin headed to the river in an all in pot, and the suckout spikes...we all may react differently but the result is the same, youre done. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right.

I fear dry slot after like 10-12"....a number just large enough so that the satisfaction gestapo will bag you if you express disappointment, yet at the basement of expectation.

I do not fear precip type issues.

I usually just make fun of people for setting expectations too high when uncertainty is a lot greater than they want to give it credit for.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, wxsniss said:

Southern stream definitely digging further south thru 24, but let's hope has the same effect as it did on 0z NAM... more detachment from northern stream

It doesn't because northern stream is humming along with it like on the GFS...so it helps in this case. On the NAM the N stream wasn't doing that.

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Buddy1987

Buddy1987

Posted
Posted

Morning guys. Moved out of NW CT back in 2011. Was from Thomaston originally. Just wanted to hop in and say congrats to SNE. Miss talking with everyone up that way, even back to the Eastern US WX days. Good luck come Tues morning. Gonna be a doozy.

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Greg

Greg

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

In a non full phased prog system though, id expect some correction tomorrow for an east a tick or two. goalposts are certainly narrow though. 

It might correct itself a little bit but tonights euro was really not good.  You really wanted it to hold serve like the GFS. We'll see how much model wobbles tomorrow brings.

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The 4 Seasons

The 4 Seasons

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

In a non full phased prog system though, id expect some correction tomorrow for an east a tick or two. goalposts are certainly narrow though. 

You easily stay all snow and so do I but its getting dangerously close for CT, extreme SE CT may see some mixing this run but thats about it.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You should start embracing playing with fire. Someone will get destroyed near that mix line where they get enhancement from the low level convergence and frontal zone. 

I know...was just thinking that.....cf won't be hanging out for noon tea with Allison on that.

Would have to be near me...I'd take that over CJ....may be wet, too...almost 3/01 like

ecmwf_tsnow_boston_11.png

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