March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[Greg]

2 minutes ago, Metasequoia said:

 

Does that 540 line look insanely north to anyone?

The snow maps are amazing, but that looks way too warm.

It is too warm.  Wait for the Euro.

[Morch Madness]

Glad to see we've reached the "Ray panicking over nothing" part of this storm

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Morch Madness said:

Glad to see we've reached the "Ray panicking over nothing" part of this storm

Apparently the concept of an H7 low is beyond your intellectual grasp.

Keep reading...

[CT Valley Snowman]

Little more blue cotton candy showing on the Gem. I know these clown maps are not highly accurate but fun to look at. 

[Juliancolton]

Hour 150 is fun on the Canadian. Nothing like storms and rumors of storms on the horizon to help offset the inevitable post-blizzard depression.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Canadian is a beast.  Goal posts narrowing toward double digits from Albany to Boston.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

Hour 150 is fun on the Canadian. Nothing like storms and rumors of storms on the horizon to help offset the inevitable post-blizzard depression.

GFS has some potential too, just less organized.   That would be enough to push many non-weenies over the edge. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

I just have the vision of the 12z GFS cranking at 00z from HFD to MHT and PWM. 

I have a little case of the thickening. 

Yea....deformation will probably be E NY/Bershirres into s/c VT/NH...that is where I pegged it in my first call map on Friday night, and still like that idea.

I'll probably lower the 15-25" in e MA a bit..

[Juliancolton]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

GFS has some potential too, just less organized.   That would be enough to push many non-weenies over the edge. 

Yeah, it's a bit hard to appreciate the impact even this upcoming storm is having on the psyche of the general public. Folks were in full, unreserved spring mode for sure.

[CT Valley Snowman]

Anyone spotted Uncle yet?

[DavisStraight]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think I'm out of the running for deformation.

God, I hope I dnt smoke CJ exhaust

Where do you think the deform band is Ray?

Edit- never mind answered, type too slow

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, DavisStraight said:

Where do you think the deform band is Ray?

See above post

[dryslot]

Uncle

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Ukie is absolute crush job for the interior.   Looks like track over Boston? 

[CT Valley Snowman]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Uncle

 

Wow that's west and amped.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, CTValleySnowMan said:

Wow that's west and amped.

You are going to get buried if that comes close to verifying.    

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Ukie is absolute crush job for the interior.   Looks like track over Boston? 

May be west of that

[CT Valley Snowman]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Ukie is absolute crush job for the interior.   Looks like track over Boston? 

More like E CT and interior E MA. Hopefully a bit overdone.

 

[Greg]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Uncle

 

 

 

That is almost identical to the latest Regional Canadian model, one of these models are going to blink.  I'm just not sure which one.  I think the Canadian first then the crazy Ukie.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, dryslot said:

May be west of that

Yeah, I'll take a compromise between Ukie and GFS.   Euro will have one more rebuttal but we are in meso model territory soon.  I will be in dreamland for the Euro  but I think it comes a bit west from 12z.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

Wow that's west and amped.

I called that.

But I shouldn't be concerned when the surface low tracks over my head, apparently. 

 

[wxsniss]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Told ya'll...energy being more detached prob sends it east. The differences are fairly minor overall at this point, but it's kind of counter intuitive at first glance, the more the southern stream goes south and is further from N stream, the less ability for it to get sucked back to the west by a phase. Usually in a more conventional setup if it's digging more, we often associate that with a more robust/west trend.

Yeah Will you were right. Of course it also depends on relative digging of northern stream... if that barrels in more amped (vs. delayed), that too would result in a more northwest (vs. eastern) track. 

Ideal scenario (for eastern SNE) is a later phase that delays the western tugging influence to our latitude. That has the potential of preserving an elbow / ACK / BM track while also improving duration and trajectory thereafter... something like the 12z Euro Friday solution... thereby also giving us a shot at deformation as the system tracks ENE rather than NNE. Have our cake and eat it too.

But that's greedy. Right now I'm still anxious about an RGEM-type over-amped scenario. Has been my fear all along given the southern stream origin.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I called that.

But I shouldn't be concerned when the surface low tracks over my head, apparently. 

 

Thanks for loaning me the dynamics you were looking for, pay you back later... 

[CT Valley Snowman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I called that.

But I shouldn't be concerned when the surface low tracks over my head, apparently. 

 

I'd be concerned of a quick thump and slot central and especially eastern areas but hopefully that's a bit too far west

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Yeah Will you were right. Of course it also depends on relative digging of northern stream... if that barrels in more amped (vs. delayed), that too would result in a more northwest (vs. eastern) track. 

Ideal scenario (for eastern SNE) is a later phase that delays the western tugging influence to our latitude. That has the potential of preserving an elbow / ACK / BM track while also improving duration and trajectory thereafter... something like the 12z Euro Friday solution... thereby also giving us a shot at deformation as the system tracks ENE rather than NNE. Have our cake and eat it too.

But that's greedy. Right now I'm still anxious about an RGEM-type over-amped scenario. Has been my fear all along given the southern stream origin.

Its reason for concern, yet a select few keeping trying to blow bubbles up your rear, and put on a clinic in dissociation.

[Morch Madness]

This says UKIE takes it over the Cape... idk, this might not be a useful product but it's weird how much it disagrees with the SLP maps

[CT Valley Snowman]

Euro will be critical.  I'm open to the idea of this maybe going up as far west as Buzzards Bay but  I can't really buy anything further west than that without seeing the Euro and EPS(3:30 AM, lol). 

[CT Valley Snowman]

Down to 39 members and 6 minutes between posts as the Sandman does his dirty work.

[wxsniss]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its reason for concern, yet a select few keeping trying to blow bubbles up your rear, and put on a clinic in dissociation.

I agree Ray

The thing I don't buy is rain to 495 on the 0z RGEM... even with a track over PYM I can't believe we see rain that far west.

Hard to shake the fear of a southern system amp and hug the coast more than expected, even in an overall progressive regime. I haven't look to see what RGEM is doing at H5. UK bump is unnerving, but it is going against a very good consensus of 18z+0z NAM / 0z GFS / 12z Euro / EPS of elbow/ACK track.

 

[codfishsnowman]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The only thing worse than measuring 9" worth of a cosmic dildo at the conclusion of what could have been an 18" storm is the crowd that condemns you for being disappointed. 

"Let me tell you what you should enjoy".

 

that has been my reality on here for years!!!!!!!!!!!!!