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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Yeah, Nothing has changed my mind that i have seen tonight, We may see some subtle shifts one way or the other the next couple cycles outside of the GFS but its noise now.

You could pull a 20"+   The potential stall in Gulf of Maine would be another 6" in 12 hours for you. 

Hell, I suppose with good H7 placement (over Framingham?) I could hit 20". 

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mreaves

mreaves

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Everything else will end up "there"  and GFS will show up late to the picnic but with dessert. 

I still have that CCC track (or 10mi +/-) for the SLP kind of etched in my psyche.

I will say that you have been on this from the get go. In the deepest depths of the torch, you were confident that winter had one last shot. Obviously you didn't "call" this storm but you have not wavered in your thoughts. Good job. 

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Greg

Greg

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

0z GFS moved a few tics NW but still not quite there yet.

The GFS is not a bad model, its trying to sniff out the progressive flow aloft.  The typical Nam bias is still way too amped.  The euro will probably be in-between the two extremes.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You could pull a 20"+   The potential stall in Gulf of Maine would be another 6" in 12 hours for you. 

Hell, I suppose with good H7 placement (over Framingham?) I could hit 20". 

Yeah, I think we both can be around that number, These tracks other then the GFS has your area pegged as well, Its just an overall nice storm for the whole region

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
Just now, Greg said:

The GFS is not a bad model, its trying to sniff out the progressive flow aloft.  The typical Nam bias is still way too amped.  The euro will probably be in-between the two extremes.

Not saying its bad, This type of system is just not suited to its bias, It will get there.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM still wild...goes over Canal like the RGEM. Brings mixing back to 128 region probably...though it looks like it's mostly over by that point.

May be a shade to far west but we are getting close to consensus on the track other then some noise.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM still wild...goes over Canal like the RGEM. Brings mixing back to 128 region probably...though it looks like it's mostly over by that point.

You were right.  Now to bed.  Not waiting on the euro.  Anyone have a quIck uncle?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't discount that.

 

Most of these types of solutions have a leading vortmax that focuses a lot of WAA out ahead of the main southern stream...the Ukie is doing this too and the RGEM. It could be real, but often times I've seen they will stop focusing on smaller pieces of vorticity as we get closer. But it's def something to watch. The GFS has it too, but it sort of lets the main vortmax take over before it gets to us.

 

I'd expect the Euro to handle the multiple vortmaxima the best.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I will say that you have been on this from the get go. In the deepest depths of the torch, you were confident that winter had one last shot. Obviously you didn't "call" this storm but you have not wavered in your thoughts. Good job. 

Thanks man, that means a lot because part of my feel for the weather is the time I spend outside trying to understand the temperament of it.  

I've been watching the elastic wind on this one for a long time. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Most of these types of solutions have a leading vortmax that focuses a lot of WAA out ahead of the main southern stream...the Ukie is doing this too and the RGEM. It could be real, but often times I've seen they will stop focusing on smaller pieces of vorticity as we get closer. But it's def something to watch. The GFS has it too, but it sort of lets the main vortmax take over before it gets to us.

 

I'd expect the Euro to handle the multiple vortmaxima the best.

More guidance is doing it than not.

 

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Whineminster said:

Is this the Valentine's day storm 2007 you're referencing? I just remember drinking Coors light in the dorm lounge at UMass watching it pelt for hours and being disappointed as we were supposed to get more snow. 

Hmm, so Whineminster and I were doing the same thing in 2007?

Scalping over by the Chelmsford line. 

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