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March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

powderfreak

By powderfreak,
in New England

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
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Just now, dendrite said:

Chickens saved by the downslope.

If my biz trip tomorrow to NYC is cancelled, I should enjoy this down here in Dover.  Just moved here, as the Webster house is sold and Boscawen house not built yet.  Until December I worry about changeover lines, but I try to enjoy my proximity to the coastal front.  

I hope there is no downslope problem up there, doesn't seem like the models have shown it very much so far.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Going to be tough to get a solid widespread 12"+ down here.  Mid-level lift is certainly pretty damn impressive but it only looks to last like 3-4 hours tops.  I guess if it can rip 3"/HR for that time it's possible but I think we are only looking at a short-ish wondow for significant rates.  Still like my 8-12" with 12-20 where the band sits but maybe more like 12-18

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I was wondering if you might see some slowing down of this thing finally as we got closer thinking maybe a better phase more pure. Just not happening though. Seems to just want to fail that and squirt that sucker right throuh. Might stall that for a bit  down East Maine as a weakening system actually. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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4 minutes ago, J Paul Gordon said:

wasn't the h7 over central MA earlier? This still jumping around or are we getting into lock in time?

It's jumping around from run to run...keep in mind strength/maturity matters too when discussing the mid-level centers. The Boxing Day H7 low tracked over the Cape or PYM but it was so mature and maxed out, that it had thrown the best moisture all the way back to the HRV. In an H7 low that is still in the strengthening phase, you won't see the best forcing as far NW of the low as a more mature low. Also, watch if the low is trying to redevelop to the east...if it gets elonged to the northeast or ENE, it can track a bit west of you but you never get dryslotted. The track is very important, but it isn't the entire variable in where dryslots happen.

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Greg

Greg

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That's not good for eastern ma.... want that east

The para like the NAM has a bias of hugging the coast a little too much therefore you need to adjust the model a little bit southeast for verification.  the Euro will do this, the GFS will be further south east.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was wondering if you might see some slowing down of this thing finally as we got closer thinking maybe a better phase more pure. Just not happening though. Seems to just want to fail that and squirt that sucker right throuh. Might stall that for a big  down East Maine as a weakening system actually. 

Couldn't a slower solution actually hurt more in the end?  Especially with the system closing off at H5.  With this happening a slower push to the North and east could mean occlusion and moisture inflow cut off and quicker weakening 

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's jumping around from run to run...keep in mind strength/maturity matters too when discussing the mid-level centers. The Boxing Day H7 low tracked over the Cape or PYM but it was so mature and maxed out, that it had thrown the best moisture all the way back to the HRV. In an H7 low that is still in the strengthening phase, you won't see the best forcing as far NW of the low as a more mature low. Also, watch if the low is trying to redevelop to the east...if it gets elonged to the northeast or ENE, it can track a bit west of you but you never get dryslotted. The track is very important, but it isn't the entire variable in where dryslots happen.

Awesome post Will!  

#learning

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Hellacious few hours of snow for many.  Forget jackpots and enjoy.  If you ain't working and you ain't illin' get outside in it!

Yeah everyone in SNE will see rates that would make anyone jealous.  No worries down there.  The moisture is incredible.

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Hoth

Hoth

Posted
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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Couldn't a slower solution actually hurt more in the end?  Especially with the system closing off at H5.  With this happening a slower push to the North and east could mean occlusion and moisture inflow cut off and quicker weakening 

Ryan going locally 24" in your area. Relax.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Awesome post Will!  

#learning

Thanks man...I am happy to see a lot of the forum focusing on the track of mid-level centers now..it's extremely important. But I also don't want to have folks too hyperfocused on that one variable. The tracks we look for are general rules that help make a more accurate snowfall forecast...but it's good to be aware of some of the other nuances involved. If I see an H7 low over DXR (Danbury CT) but it's looking elongated to the ENE toward Scooter's digs...then I'm not gonna start worrying about a huge dryslot punching into ORH. It's probably redeveloping eastward which will blunt the dryslot more east rather than ripping north into central SNE.

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