March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[ORH_wxman]

You'll prob see a little scoot east late here because the main energy swinging around down south is more detached than 18z.

[J Paul Gordon]

Oh, no! Trending west! Up the CT Valley? Hudson Valley? 

[JC-CT]

No issues in this frame lol. Actually looks great. Headed more ene.

[weathafella]

Over the elbow.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Huge hit for most of NE.   Big by March standards for many.

[J Paul Gordon]

OK. Guess I can stop hyperventilating. Its still gonna snow.

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, J Paul Gordon said:

Oh, no! Trending west! Up the CT Valley? Hudson Valley? 

Nope no worries for ENE...going to head east and bomb.  

[JC-CT]

[dryslot]

[weathafella]

JC when is para going live?

[snowgeek]

Is the PARA different from the 12km?

[wxsniss]

Wow the all critical 45 hour is outside the elbow, track over ACK

[dryslot]

[weathafella]

Actually goes east of the Cape-shifted a tad east vs 18z.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

That is going to go from flurries to +SN quickly as it comes in.   I can't believe how far inland the good qpf gets. 

[wxsniss]

Actually a tick southeast vs. 18z

[78Blizzard]

Another ACK run.  That's where it's going.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

JC when is para going live?

Wednesday. And our poor dgex is being retired. 

[CoastalWx]

That energy that Will mentioned was definitely a little more detached compares to 18z. Surprised it wasn't east more. 

[WintersComing]

Para is out to 24 hrs now

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, snowgeek said:

Is the PARA different from the 12km?

It's the next NAM but not yet in production.

[weathafella]

Like 3/15 the para is the NAM?

[mostman]

Little slower than 18z once it gets past the elbow?

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Actually goes east of the Cape-shifted a tad east vs 18z.

Yup as expected.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Actually goes east of the Cape-shifted a tad east vs 18z.

 

4 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Actually a tick southeast vs. 18z

 

Told ya'll...energy being more detached prob sends it east. The differences are fairly minor overall at this point, but it's kind of counter intuitive at first glance, the more the southern stream goes south and is further from N stream, the less ability for it to get sucked back to the west by a phase. Usually in a more conventional setup if it's digging more, we often associate that with a more robust/west trend.

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Like 3/15 the para is the NAM?

Yup

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/

[weatherwiz]

Stars closing off the 700 across western CT/SE NY at 18z

[dryslot]

[dendrite]

Just now, dryslot said:

Chickens saved by the downslope.

[MaineJayhawk]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Congrats George H. W. Bush