March 14/15 W & NNE weenies jumping from the Tobin Coastal Storm Discussion

[wxsniss]

Looks like slightly sharper digging of southern stream through 21 hours

[snowgeek]

12Km NAM thru 21 looks like southern stream is digging a bit more and ridge looks a bit more pumped up in east. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM is dragging heels a bit on southern stream through 24...wonder if that is gonna cause it to swing around further right this run.

Yeah a little disconnected from

nrn stream s/w.

[Whineminster]

Is this the Valentine's day storm 2007 you're referencing? I just remember drinking Coors light in the dorm lounge at UMass watching it pelt for hours and being disappointed as we were supposed to get more snow. 

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

2007 as an analog but with mostly snow and not all that sleet mixing in would be a pretty good result.

 

[geo1]

Just now, Zeus said:

Have you and I ever, uh, you know... "sparred?"

I wish! But your brash web lingo swayed me in another direction when I was a youngin. 

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM is dragging heels a bit on southern stream through 24...wonder if that is gonna cause it to swing around further right this run.

Agreed...it looks to swing east, at least initially. 

These runs will start heading east with the features.  To outside the Cape.

[The 4 Seasons]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Agreed...it looks to swing east, at least initially. 

These runs will start heading east.

Hope so. Started to get a little concerned for CT, but not much.

[dryslot]

The Nam is hair slower this run but still looks like it may be a tick west

[snowgeek]

The less phasing and more digging points to an east trend, but the slightly more ridging out in front points to a west trend.  Tough call.  Split the difference.  

[weathafella]

 

Low position is identical 36 hours vs 42 at 18z.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Agreed...it looks to swing east, at least initially. 

These runs will start heading east with the features.  To outside the Cape.

I dunno' this one may end up tucky tuck when we are in nowcast. 

[wxsniss]

Actually thought slower / more digging southern stream might allow greater interaction with northern stream and tick west track...

[Typhoon Tip]

Looks like they expanded the blizzard watch considerably 

[geo1]

2 minutes ago, geo1 said:

I wish! But your brash web lingo swayed me in another direction when I was a youngin. 

Off topic anyways, and I have huge implications with this storm working in the city. Major event happening Tuesday night and was hoping for product delivery Tuesday am guess that's a no go ! Yikes I'm fffed

[snowgeek]

Low is maybe 25 miles NW at 36 hours compared to 18z.

[weathafella]

Just now, snowgeek said:

Low is maybe 25 miles NW at 36 hours compared to 18z.

I don't see that.  Coordinates appear that me the same.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, snowgeek said:

Low is maybe 25 miles NW at 36 hours compared to 18z.

[JC-CT]

Really far west I think

[snowgeek]

i just compared on Tropical Tidbits using the 12Km NAM.  I dunno?

[weathafella]

Maybe due north by a few miles....

[dryslot]

Yeah, Its going to be west this run

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Really far west I think

That's para-im comparing regular.

[wxsniss]

Really slight ~ 25 mile tick northwest by 39 hours... probably within range of noise... gonna be a huge hit

[The 4 Seasons]

The regular NAM does look west by a tad, maybe 25 miles like someone said earlier

[weathafella]

39 hour regular west.  Will it do something with the blob to the east?

[JC-CT]

Just now, weathafella said:

That's para-im comparing regular.

Para is the new regular as of this coming Wednesday 

[dryslot]

Just now, The 4 Seasons said:

The regular NAM does look west by a tad, maybe 25 miles like someone said earlier

Its tucked in closer to the coast

[weathafella]

Shellacking!

[78Blizzard]

NAM will be within 20 mi of 18z position when it hits cape area.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Huge moisture shield on the NAM.